Mike Trout needs his own thread

trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments

WAR's positional, right? You're x number of games above the current replacement level at your position, as measured against everybody else playing the same spot? I sometimes wonder if a hidden contributing factor might be--in the case of these two guys--that, as a group, third basemen had a better night last night than center fielders. Sounds bizarre, I know, but I'm trying to understand how Trout makes up ground on Cabrera last night. (If Trout's great catch was the night before, presumably that had already been figured in prior to today's calculations.)

i think that the positional baselines for WAR are fixed and not based on how other players at the same position do on a night-to-night basis

i could be wrong tho

the catch wasn't even all that great tbh, but that's all i can think of that would cause that swing

sarge what do you mean by that? he played some LF early in the year, but aren't LFers theoretically less skilled than CFers? if anything on the defensive side that should have helped him?

xp

Okay. I would think they'd adjust the baseline periodically, though--the replacement level for first basemen during the McGwire-Bagwell-Thomas-Palmeiro-McGriff era must have been historically high.

If anybody else can explain how 0-2 with two walks and two stolen bases makes up two-tenths of a game on 2-5 with a home run, please do. (Would the fact that Cabrera's home run tied the game in the 9th inning be worth anything--does WPA figure into WAR?)

"trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments"

Yeah this makes no sense to me either. If he was 2 wins better than replacement at CF then in theory he'd be way better than a replacement LF not way worse.

xp I don't think any WPA stuff is used. I think this is a question you'd have to ask the B-R guy to get an answer.

his fielding runs above average hasn't moved on fangraphs for at least a week

"trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments"

Yeah this makes no sense to me either. If he was 2 wins better than replacement at CF then in theory he'd be way better than a replacement LF not way worse.

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Saturday, August 10, 2013 11:52 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

defensively yeah but offensively you'd think corner outfielders are more replaceable than center fielders?

And even WPA was used I wouldn't think that Trout would get a bump from it.

Okay. I would think they'd adjust the baseline periodically

they do, probably during each offseason. it's not like "oh, every other third baseman in mlb went 0-4 last night so now miguel cabrera's war has shot up"

xp yeah I'm talking about just in terms of the defense relative to a replacement LF.

I notice also that, after months of Gomez (mostly) and Kershaw leading the NL, McCutchen is tied this morning--first time, I think.

LF is the easiest OF position so the positional adjustment is more severe i.e. a good LF is gonna have a lower defensive rating than a good CF because a much higher number of players can play LF well than can play CF well. so even if we assume (for the sake of the example) that trout is playing the exact same quality defense in 2013 as he did in 2012 but his playing time is more slanted towards LF than that good defense in LF in 2013 is gonna count for less than all the good defense in CF in 2012.

A cast of characters that includes Raul Ibanez and Chris Carter for example.

I think that difference is counted into the ACTUAL positional adjustment for LF (at least in Fangraphs). Either way according to B-R Trout is basically as bad a fielder this year as Raul Ibanez. I just don't see how that's possible.

LF is the easiest OF position so the positional adjustment is more severe i.e. a good LF is gonna have a lower defensive rating than a good CF because a much higher number of players can play LF well than can play CF well. so even if we assume (for the sake of the example) that trout is playing the exact same quality defense in 2013 as he did in 2012 but his playing time is more slanted towards LF than that good defense in LF in 2013 is gonna count for less than all the good defense in CF in 2012.

― J0rdan S., Saturday, August 10, 2013 12:03 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ok yeah this makes sense

that final "than" should be "then"

Also Trout's still played most of his games at CF.

We're not talking about all CF in 2012 and all LF in 2013.

per fangraphs

2012

LF - 328 innings - 1.5 UZR
CF - 885 innings - 12.0 UZR

2013

LF - 297 innings - 2.5 UZR
CF - 700 innings - -3.1 UZR

so he's playing a bit more in LF and has just been worse in CF

my guess is that he bulked up a bit last offseason and it's hurt his CF defense a bit

i mean if you split the difference between the two seasons he still grades out as a plus defensive CF

J0rdan always blaming the roids.

yeah the defensive stats are always really volatile and you're supposed to have at least 3 years of data for it to mean anything

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9543335/why-mike-trout-more-valuable-miguel-cabrera-mlb

can someone post this?

he's up to 7.8 fWAR, also seemingly from the defensive side, as his fielding runs above average has gone from -0.5 to +2.1

In like a week haha

well literally overnight, but i get the feeling the defensive metrics are updated weekly

Yeah BR dWAR hasn't changed.

when's the last time someone's led his league in both triples and walks? the best i can find is mantle in 1955

Rickey Henderson didn't; never hit more than 7 triples in a season!

yeah he was my first guess too! i was really surprised at his low triples total

Brett Butler led in both categories, not in the same season.

I'm seeing a lotta fast guys who were known for not walking a ton (Reyes, Lance Johnson, Willie Wilson) as triples leaders.

Harmon Killebrew, Frank Thomas, and Prince Fielder all led their leagues in walks. Triples, not so many.

maybe guys who hit a lot of triples are aggressive in a way that works against walking.

i would think that the traits of a strong triples hitter would be

1) fast (duh)
2) plays in a pitcher's park (so strong blasts to the alley and line drives into the corner would have more distance to bounce around before the OF can get it back in)
3) high SLG, but more of a XBH guy rather than a HR hitter
4) aggressive baserunner

i'm surprised that ricky henderson never hit more than 7, although i'm not sure about the characteristics of the old A's coliseum, along with the other parks he played in.

rickey probably stopped at second a lot so he could steal third

^^^actual rickey quote iirc

"rickey probably stopped at second a lot so he could steal third

― k3vin k., Friday, August 16, 2013 5:35 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink"

-rickey henderson

^^^actual rickey quote iirc

A whole page of theories:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1542089

robs a home run!

left the game in the 6th, sore hammy. please be minor

"when's the last time someone's led his league in both triples and walks?"

It's not Pete Rose. I went and checked as I remembered he drew quite a few walks at points in his career. Dude hit some triples though, not too many players hit 5 three-baggers at age 40.

caught stealing tonight, rare occurrence

Big game today: 3-3, double, triple, walk, run.

really infuriating how mlb.com highlights show any run-scoring play but doesn't have (free) video of mike freaking trout legging out a triple

up to 9.2 fWAR

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/search/?player_id=545361&tagName=Mike%20Trout

ok, the triple's up now