Mike Trout needs his own thread

Similar to the Fangraphs piece above, but ranked by WAR, so A-Rod's high. The inner-circleness holds until #12, where Vada Pinson shows up. (Pinson's prolonged drift into retirement at age 36 has always fascinated me.)

http://mlb.si.com/2013/08/08/mike-trout-birthday-angels/

trout somehow just leapfrogged everyone else and now leads the league in bWAR?

hm, looks like he's gone from -1.5 dWAR to -1.1 over the past week. robbing that home run a couple nights ago probably helped

Is there a good explanation for the over 3 dWAR swing between last year and this year? Is Trout really not making that many plays this year that your replacement level player would (and that he did last year)?

I think the 2.1 dWAR from last year is actually wackier than the minus 1.1 from this year.

there have been a few articles about it - it basically boils down to the fact that he had like 4 incredible home run robs in like 5 months last year and, until yesterday, had none so far this year. it is pretty suspect that his dWAR numbers are so bad (at least on b-r) given his speed. fangraphs had him as a neutral defender up until a couple days ago

So robbing a home run = a 1/4 of a win? That seems more suspect to me than his dWAR #s this year since I thought one win basically boiled down to 10 runs above replacement.

Actually even more than a 1/4 since that was an explanation for a nearly 4 dWAR swing.

I love the idea of defensive metrics like WAR but swings like this are a lot harder to understand than their offensive counterparts.

I've been following Trout and Cabrera on Baseball Reference, and here's something I don't quite understand. I knew, once Trout got hot (and especially with Cabrera missing games), it was only a matter of time before Trout moved to the top of the list. Today seems like an odd day for it to happen, though Yesterday, Cabrera was up 6.2 to 6.1; this morning, it's Trout 6.4, Cabrera 6.2.

Trout had an okay game yesterday: 0-2, but he drew two walks and stole two bases. Cabrera was 2-5 with (as you may have read) a home run--no extra credit for the who and when of the latter, but still. Neither guy made an error. Putouts, assists, or great plays, I don't know.

I know it's all context-driven, but based on that, how did Trout move up three-tenths of a game, and Cabrera only one-tenth? Maybe Baseball Reference is a day behind on their WAR calculations, but I don't think so.

yeah it's puzzling. like i said it looks like trout's gain was on the defensive side, where he went from -1.4 to -1.1 (i think overnight) - but that must be from the robbed home run, i'd have thought

trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments

WAR's positional, right? You're x number of games above the current replacement level at your position, as measured against everybody else playing the same spot? I sometimes wonder if a hidden contributing factor might be--in the case of these two guys--that, as a group, third basemen had a better night last night than center fielders. Sounds bizarre, I know, but I'm trying to understand how Trout makes up ground on Cabrera last night. (If Trout's great catch was the night before, presumably that had already been figured in prior to today's calculations.)

i think that the positional baselines for WAR are fixed and not based on how other players at the same position do on a night-to-night basis

i could be wrong tho

the catch wasn't even all that great tbh, but that's all i can think of that would cause that swing

sarge what do you mean by that? he played some LF early in the year, but aren't LFers theoretically less skilled than CFers? if anything on the defensive side that should have helped him?

xp

Okay. I would think they'd adjust the baseline periodically, though--the replacement level for first basemen during the McGwire-Bagwell-Thomas-Palmeiro-McGriff era must have been historically high.

If anybody else can explain how 0-2 with two walks and two stolen bases makes up two-tenths of a game on 2-5 with a home run, please do. (Would the fact that Cabrera's home run tied the game in the 9th inning be worth anything--does WPA figure into WAR?)

"trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments"

Yeah this makes no sense to me either. If he was 2 wins better than replacement at CF then in theory he'd be way better than a replacement LF not way worse.

xp I don't think any WPA stuff is used. I think this is a question you'd have to ask the B-R guy to get an answer.

his fielding runs above average hasn't moved on fangraphs for at least a week

"trout's defensive numbers this year are also lower because he's been playing more LF than he did in 2012 so he's working against stricter positional adjustments"

Yeah this makes no sense to me either. If he was 2 wins better than replacement at CF then in theory he'd be way better than a replacement LF not way worse.

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Saturday, August 10, 2013 11:52 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

defensively yeah but offensively you'd think corner outfielders are more replaceable than center fielders?

And even WPA was used I wouldn't think that Trout would get a bump from it.

Okay. I would think they'd adjust the baseline periodically

they do, probably during each offseason. it's not like "oh, every other third baseman in mlb went 0-4 last night so now miguel cabrera's war has shot up"

xp yeah I'm talking about just in terms of the defense relative to a replacement LF.

I notice also that, after months of Gomez (mostly) and Kershaw leading the NL, McCutchen is tied this morning--first time, I think.

LF is the easiest OF position so the positional adjustment is more severe i.e. a good LF is gonna have a lower defensive rating than a good CF because a much higher number of players can play LF well than can play CF well. so even if we assume (for the sake of the example) that trout is playing the exact same quality defense in 2013 as he did in 2012 but his playing time is more slanted towards LF than that good defense in LF in 2013 is gonna count for less than all the good defense in CF in 2012.

A cast of characters that includes Raul Ibanez and Chris Carter for example.

I think that difference is counted into the ACTUAL positional adjustment for LF (at least in Fangraphs). Either way according to B-R Trout is basically as bad a fielder this year as Raul Ibanez. I just don't see how that's possible.

LF is the easiest OF position so the positional adjustment is more severe i.e. a good LF is gonna have a lower defensive rating than a good CF because a much higher number of players can play LF well than can play CF well. so even if we assume (for the sake of the example) that trout is playing the exact same quality defense in 2013 as he did in 2012 but his playing time is more slanted towards LF than that good defense in LF in 2013 is gonna count for less than all the good defense in CF in 2012.

― J0rdan S., Saturday, August 10, 2013 12:03 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ok yeah this makes sense

that final "than" should be "then"

Also Trout's still played most of his games at CF.

We're not talking about all CF in 2012 and all LF in 2013.

per fangraphs

2012

LF - 328 innings - 1.5 UZR
CF - 885 innings - 12.0 UZR

2013

LF - 297 innings - 2.5 UZR
CF - 700 innings - -3.1 UZR

so he's playing a bit more in LF and has just been worse in CF

my guess is that he bulked up a bit last offseason and it's hurt his CF defense a bit

i mean if you split the difference between the two seasons he still grades out as a plus defensive CF

J0rdan always blaming the roids.

yeah the defensive stats are always really volatile and you're supposed to have at least 3 years of data for it to mean anything

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9543335/why-mike-trout-more-valuable-miguel-cabrera-mlb

can someone post this?

he's up to 7.8 fWAR, also seemingly from the defensive side, as his fielding runs above average has gone from -0.5 to +2.1

In like a week haha

well literally overnight, but i get the feeling the defensive metrics are updated weekly

Yeah BR dWAR hasn't changed.

when's the last time someone's led his league in both triples and walks? the best i can find is mantle in 1955

Rickey Henderson didn't; never hit more than 7 triples in a season!

yeah he was my first guess too! i was really surprised at his low triples total

Brett Butler led in both categories, not in the same season.

I'm seeing a lotta fast guys who were known for not walking a ton (Reyes, Lance Johnson, Willie Wilson) as triples leaders.

Harmon Killebrew, Frank Thomas, and Prince Fielder all led their leagues in walks. Triples, not so many.

maybe guys who hit a lot of triples are aggressive in a way that works against walking.

i would think that the traits of a strong triples hitter would be

1) fast (duh)
2) plays in a pitcher's park (so strong blasts to the alley and line drives into the corner would have more distance to bounce around before the OF can get it back in)
3) high SLG, but more of a XBH guy rather than a HR hitter
4) aggressive baserunner

i'm surprised that ricky henderson never hit more than 7, although i'm not sure about the characteristics of the old A's coliseum, along with the other parks he played in.

rickey probably stopped at second a lot so he could steal third

^^^actual rickey quote iirc