Miguel Cabrera Needs His Own Thread

you do realize those numbers aren't park- or era-adjusted, clem? ;)

Oh, I know--just wanted to throw something together quickly. (Baseball Reference has that tool where you can easily isolate any part of a player's career.) I was going to say that, unadjusted, the best comps would seem to be DiMaggio, Aaron, and Robinson. The latter two, of course, put up half their numbers in the pitching-dominated '60s.

Not that anybody asked, but: I tend to group Williams in my mind with Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, and Hornsby, so I left him out. Chronologically, he should be included. Williams, through 1954:

PA -- 7084
HR -- 366
BA -- .348
SLG -- .638
OBP -- .486

He takes all three slash categories.

yeah he was really mfing good

Realized I can let someone else do all the adjusting...Same players, same point in their careers, ranked by oWAR:

1. Williams: 93.2
2. Mantle: 83.0
3. Musial: 78.0
4. Rodriguez: 77.0
5. Mays: 75.6
6. Pujols: 69.6
7. Robinson: 68.0
8. Aaron: 67.3
9. DiMaggio: 65.7
10. Thomas: 65.1
11. Bonds: 64.4
12. Griffey: 63.6
13. Cabrera: 59.2
14. Ramirez: 56.1

I just wanted to compare a bunch of guys as pure hitters, so now, with baserunning and positional adjustment included, we're a little beyond what I intended (Rickey Henderson had accumulated 67.4 oWAR through his first 7198 PA). That aside, Williams is off on his own, there's a second tier of Mantle, Musial, A-Rod, and Mays, and then a third tier in the 60s. By the end of the year, Cabrera should reach the very bottom of the third tier.

I don't understand including Dimaggio but excluding Williams, but otherwise what I'm getting from this is that Cabrera is a really good hitter.

I tried to explain the omission of Williams above, then realized he belonged anyway. After careful study, I've come to the same conclusion: he's a really good hitter.

Cabrera during his 15-game hitting streak: 7 homers, 13 RBI, .458/.522/.898.

i'm gonna see if i can do something similar, only using wRC+ and/or OPS+ instead

Two guys who'd rank no matter how you do it would be Henderson and Schmidt. Then there are another dozen I left out who might fall in there somewhere: Brett, Edgar Martinez, Piazza, Walker, etc. I don't know about you, ZS, but when I undertake things like this, I either do it quickly and intuitively and live with omissions, or I end up obsessing and take forever.

I don't know about you, ZS, but when I undertake things like this, I either do it quickly and intuitively and live with omissions, or I end up obsessing and take forever.

my most common outcome seems to be to start, get stuck on a basic problem, and then quit!

it's easy enough to come up with a list of top wRC+ and set the minimum PAs to 6000, but i'm not sure how to easily generate that list for players at a certain point in their career (say, ~6800 PAs like Cabrera's currently at). it would be pretty easy to manually look it up, player by player, but then you run into the question of which players to include. you can look at the total career numbers to get an idea, of course. but i'm sure there are plenty of players who had outstanding wRC+ stats at 6800 PAs, and then ended their career on 4000 mediocre PAs which dragged their overall career wRC+ down.

I might be wrong, but my guess is that career leaders would be a fairly reliable guide as to who had the best numbers--whatever sabermetric tool you use--after 7000 PA. I don't think there are many guys at this level who took a drastic tumble during the final third of their careers. Albert Belle retired just as his decline phase was starting, so he doesn't count; with someone like Juan Gonzalez, his numbers weren't good enough during his prime to qualify anyway once adjusted. I'm having a hard time thinking of anybody who ranked with Mays and DiMaggio and the rest through 7000 PA, but then began a prolonged slide. Actually, Griffey's one. His OPS+ through 1999 is 149, which would be tied for 36th on the career list, but by the time he finishes he's at 136 and 99th place. Frank Thomas, on the other hand, had such a head start that even after finishing with eight up-and-down seasons, he still ends up tied with Mays and Dick Allen for 19th on the Career OPS+ list.

I think for Thomas it helped that his only "bad" seasons were his injury plagued ones. He never had a full season that wasn't at least good offensively.

Just read that he has 90 RBIs and had to check to make sure it wasn't a typo.

Here are the most ever before the break (Hamilton ended up with 95 that year), unless someone else made the list the past four seasons:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3485814

Also from the Department of Antiquated Stats, he's got a good chance to become the ninth guy to win three batting titles in a row: Gwynn, Boggs, Carew, Musial, Hornsby, Cobb, Wagner, Lajoie. (Trusting someone else's research there.) He'd be the first to hit 30+ HR each year, though.

Yes, I know: the great Preston Wilson...

Research Notes
7th straight season with 30+ HR for Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera reached 30 HR in the Tigers' 91st game of the season. The only Tigers player to get there faster was Hank Greenberg, who hit his 30th in their 87th game of 1938.
With his 30th HR of the season today, Miguel Cabrera is the first player in MLB history with 30 home runs AND 90 RBI before the All-Star break.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO-earSCYAAmGSo.png

https://twitter.com/msimonespn/status/355677076713529344

His red zone kind of looks like a brony bent over a table with its tail on the air, begging for forgiveness. Or you know, doing whatever it it is that bronies do.

Hope he sits out the all-star game for his back's sake.

Hope he sits out the all-star game so the Orioles can have the entire starting infield not named Cano

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2922287/cabreratroll.gif

Is he headed for the DL? I couldn't really tell from what I read.

HR first AB after four or five games off.

First swing!

how and where would one ideally pitch to miguel cabrera

besides four wide ones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3VpcwypYxk

I saw highlights of his tête-à-tête with Salazar last night--very entertaining. First three times up, Salazar struck him out, challenging him every time. In the second or third AB, there was a pitch where Cabrera (good-naturedly) signaled out to the mound that he just missed the last pitch by a bit, and maybe he'd like to come in with another one in the same spot. Salazar does, strikes him out. Fourth time up, Salazar still pitching, Cabrera knocks him out with a 420-ft. HR.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3029487/miggy-lol.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0kVyT9S-dM
xp

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/learning-lessons-with-danny-salazar-and-miguel-cabrera/

Forgot about Salazar pointing up after contact.

Yeah, there it goes.

That's a great piece. I wish I could find video of Cabrera joking around about the pitch he just missed--did you see that, Andy?

The only thing I recall from one of the at-bats is Cabrera doing his nod of respect (as if to say, "Hey, all right -- you are providing me with a challenge") between a couple pitches.

Two HRs off Rivera in the same series.

This post is meant for me and me alone. Please, move along.

I was trying to estimate his chance of another Triple Crown, and I figure it's 5% at best. If you took Chris Davis out of the equation, I'd say he'd be up around 80 or 90% at this point.

He's probably close to locking up the batting title--put him at a conservative 85% there. RBI, 45% (and 45% for Davis, and 10% for the rest of the league). But home runs, he'd have to make up six in the remaining games. Even if Davis were to settle into a 30-HR pace the rest of the way--which doesn't seem that unreasonable--he'd still hit 9 or 10, putting him around 50. Cabrera needs 14 more for 50, which would mean continuing his current pace. The chances of both those things happening, or something close in either direction? I don't know--10-15%? 85% x 45% x 15% = 6%. But Cabrera won't play every game, and he walks a lot, and Davis may stay hot, so knock that down even more.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9568471/miguel-cabrera-truly-magical-hitter

stark on where miggy ranks with the greatest RH hitters ever

He should have 3000 hits in 5-6 years, which is pretty remarkable.

He's got a decent shot at a couple of very short lists:

2000 RBI: Aaron, Ruth, Anson (and A-Rod, if he can get another 50)
6000 Total Bases: Aaron, Musial, Mays (A-Rod still needs close to 600)

The RBI mark is easier--seven more seasons of typical performance (110 a year). TB, he'd need probably need eight more--he'll cross 3,500 this year. He turns 31 next April. But at the same point, Pujols was at 1,230 RBI and 3,580 TB--basically the same. Things change.

also the rbis are dependent on the team around him

what do we know about miggy, except that he likes a drink? does he watch a ton of video? does he spend half his waking life in the cage? is he a savant?

Saved his teammates in combat in China; loves to play solitaire.

Tigers' analyst just pointed out that his front leg and foot moved and/or landed differently on recent HRs off Rivera, Danks.

also the rbis are dependent on the team around him

Less so than most players, I think. I checked his ten 100-RBI seasons, and four of the teams were below the league average in runs, six were above. (All but one Marlins team below, all but one Tigers team above; many of them on either side were fairly close to the league average.) Provided he's healthy, he doesn't strike me as someone who's only going to knock in 80 because the players in front of him aren't anything special.

What I'm saying is that his RBI consistency doesn't seem especially a function of anything other than him being his normal self when hitting with baserunners:

Career: .321/.399/.570
Runners on: .332/.411/.577
RISP: .337/.433/.570

Now, I don't know whether he's batted more often than average with baserunners on over the course of his career--with Florida, probably not, with the Tigers, quite probably yes.

One thing that surprises me looking at his splits is how much better he is against finesse pitchers than power pitchers:

Power (1,300+ AB): .277/.394/.495
Finesse (2,500+ AB): .350/.421/.615

That's a sizable gap. I thought great power hitters were almost always great fastball hitters.

where are you getting the power/finesse splits from?

It's all on Baseball Reference, in the Career Batting Splits section:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cabremi01&year=Career&t=b

They have three categories: power, average power/finesse, finesse. There's got to be some subjectivity at work there in the grey area.

Not to press the point, but I was thinking about who Cabrera's been hitting behind this year: Austin Jackson/Andy Dirks and Torii Hunter. Jackson and Dirks have been mediocre at best in the lead-off spot: Jackson's .264/.332/.411 (not good at getting on base, decent power), Dirks is .278/.300/.371. Hitting #2, Hunter is .305/.340/.463--good power, nothing special in getting on. Cabrera's knocking in a run a game because of Cabrera: .391/.506/.807 with runners on (wow), .437/.555/.899 with RISP (really wow).

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/18044761/176717774.0_standard_709.0.jpg

Esoteric to the point of being meaningless, but a nice short list anyway:

"Cabrera became the third player since 1921 to have at least 40 homers and 120 RBIs while batting .350 or better through 116 games, joining Babe Ruth and Jimmie Foxx, according to STATS."

surprised their aren't more players on that list, in particular early 2000s barry bonds!

As Mr. Shasta used to lecture, Barry walked too often to rack up RBI. (I post that, by the way, knowing full well how phony such constructions are, when you set the bar at x/y/z so that somebody who has just barely reached each benchmark qualifies.)

Can we start having the "is Miggy already a HOFer?" discussions yet?

2999

I feel like he has to go 4-4 here.

He'll be leading off the 8th--it'd be nice if the Jays broadcast cut away, but doubtful.

Maybe tomorrow. Busy night with an infield single, a TOOTBLAN, and a run scored from first on a double.

He's also at 599 doubles.

I’m going to guess 600 is a lot!

“Today,” Miguel Cabrera said, “I will bunt.”

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) April 21, 2022

haha, i was just reading this headline

https://i.imgur.com/uvF54F5.png

the classic intentionally-walk-the-batter-with-2999-hits

I will say that is perhaps the only time I've really missed the old intentional walk. Could have enjoyed the crowd gradually realizing what was happening... the cadence of the boos developing with each pitch...... never forget what they took from you

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) April 21, 2022

1 of those 2,999 hits is an IBB he turned into a single against the O's in the mid-00s. My #1 miggy memory

*watches*

there it is! single to right field!

Damn, missed it--when did they start playing baseball so early? Anyway, saw the replay, nice clean hit.

As for the next 3,000 guy, the prospects are dismal.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/H_career.shtml

Cano (2,630, 39)
Molina (2,116, 39)
Votto (2,035, 38)
Cruz (1,924, 41)
Andrus (1,875, 33)
McCutchen (1,838, 35)
Longoria (1,818, 36)
Altuve (1,783, 32)
J. Upton (1,748, 34)
Freeman (1,722, 32)
Hosmer (1,648, 32)
Brantley (1,584, 35)
Goldschmidt (1,581, 34)

No one else is over 1,500. From that list, Altuve and Freeman have a chance--I'd go with Freeman at this point. The best bet right now, I'd say, is Machado with 1,445 at 29 and playing well. Trout still has a decent chance, with 1,428 at 30, but obviously COVID and injury-time have really slowed him down. After him, I don't think there's anyone in the top 1,000 with a chance--you may be looking at Acuna and Soto and that generation.

The prototypical Miggy knock - hard hit and oppo. The man is one of the best I’ve ever seen at going the other way. pic.twitter.com/lhC7O3oeSz

— Nick Stellini (@StelliniTweets) April 23, 2022

Was walking to (wedding anniversary) lunch, coincidentally near the park, as presumed ticket holders were legging it. That must have sucked for them.

Iglesias’ hug — aww, man.

yeah that hug was super cute

Almost a month into my baseball exile. Kinda weird avoiding it but not too hard to do, but saw Cabrera

Cabrera is maybe the first ILBaseball hall of famer. Pretty much his career has ran the length of the site (almost).

Cabrera was in the Bartman game (early in his career) and we were watching on ILX.

The Cubs ARE still the Cubs

He might have started a bit before the site, but his career has been well commented on over the years on the site.

Altuve won't make it or at least the second baseman decline says he won't. Alomar looked like a lock for 3k hits and he fell off a cliff. Heck Cano looked like a lock until he got busted doping again and again (probably why he was looking like a lock).

It might be a while, players making more money, the game probably eventually leading to a much smaller season and the style of baseball getting away from batting average and getting just 'hits' - might make it kind of a hard stat to get the numbers.

Forgot all about another Canadian store that was right in the mix 30 years ago: Towers (which turned into Zellers, which I guess I'd forgotten).

Wrong thread!

I am very curious about where that comment belongs!

Kmart R.I.P.

Strong Kmart-Detroit connection, so not that wrong.

meijer still lives

Miguel Cabrera just stole Third Base in the year 2022 pic.twitter.com/O4pUrmGpt8

— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) July 13, 2022

Miggy's newest milestone: pic.twitter.com/114OKiUnFQ

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 13, 2022

There's a chance Cabrera is playing his final season.

He is undecided about his status for 2023.

"I got to talk to my agent, I got to talk to the GM (general manager Al Avila), I got to talk to everybody to see what's going to be the plan for next year," Cabrera said. "Right now, we're focused on today. We're going to go day-by-day and see what happens. I don't think about next year right now. I think about trying to finish heathy (sic) this year, and we'll see."

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2022/08/04/detroit-tigers-miguel-cabrera-not-guaranteeing-playing-2023/10240941002/

Miguel Cabrera's 3097th career hit is an infield single. https://t.co/Sywd5NQ8As

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) April 26, 2023

Assume he'll get the full Pujols/Ortiz/Rivera send-off from all cities.

pic.twitter.com/4nGPlI9NZo

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) April 26, 2023

(He got a cowboy hat in Houston.)

I see he played his 2000th game with the Tigers the other day, eighth Tiger to do so. But god, what a miserable way to go out, even as measured against his last few seasons: .182/.241/.221. In 77 AB, he's had three doubles and zero home runs.

@beckjason
Miguel Cabrera's 3142nd career hit is an 8th-inning liner to CF off Josh Winder. That not only pushes him past 8-time batting champ Tony Gwynn and into top 20, it ties him with Hall of Famer Robin Yount for 19th on MLB all-time list according to @EliasSports

Little moment between Sale and Miggy in their last game facing each other:

In his return from a two-month stint on the injured list Friday, Sale faced Cabrera — who is retiring at the end of the season — twice. After getting the slugger to ground out to shortstop in the fifth inning, Sale took a moment to catch Cabrera’ attention and tell him something as he jogged to the dugout. For Sale, who has faced Cabrera 70 times since breaking into the big leagues with the White Sox in 2010, it was important to pay his respects.

“It wasn’t fun learning how to pitch in the big leagues as a starter during his Triple Crown and MVP years, I can tell you that,” Sale said after throwing 4 ⅔ impressive innings in a 5-2 Red Sox win. “I knew this was going to be the last time I faced him and I wanted him to know I had a lot of respect for him. I obviously appreciated the competition throughout the years. We obviously had some pretty good battles. He’s welcome. You’re welcome, Miggy. I helped you get to the Hall of Fame.”

Though Sale won both battles Friday, the 40-year-old Cabrera got the best of Sale for most of his career. For his career, Cabrera is 17-for-59 (.288) with four homers, two doubles, 11 walks and a .925 OPS against Sale, who he saw frequently during their time playing against each other in the American League Central when Sale was with the White Sox. Sale has struck Cabrera out 19 times, good for the second most by any pitcher ever (Lance Lynn, 22).

…

“He does things the right way, too,” Sale said. “You look at his career and what he’s done. I just wanted to say a little something to him, give him a head nod and let him know, ‘I appreciate what we’ve been through over the last few years.’ Kind of a tip of the cap on the way out. He has earned it.”

Sale added, "I presented him with my prized autographed portrait of Drake LaRoche."

The other day:

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2023%2F0820%2Fdm_230820_MLB_One%2DPlay_Miggy_Jose_Ramirez_moment%2Fdm_230820_MLB_One%2DPlay_Miggy_Jose_Ramirez_moment.jpg

16 Beltre
17 Cabrera
18 Brett

<3

Some good clips of his last game here: https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-cabrera-walks-plays-first-base-in-final-mlb-game

Cabrera ends his career with a .306 average, 3,174 hits (16th-most in Major League history), 511 home runs (tied for 25th), 627 doubles (13th), 1,881 RBIs (12th), 1,258 walks, 103 sacrifice flies (tied for 25th) and a .900 OPS.

Some abysmal stretches but his last month (.324/.365/.441) wasn't a bad way to go out. He seemed to enjoy himself all season.

16th in hits is no joke

I'll always be a fan for giving me the chance to experience something I'd been waiting years for, a Triple Crown. I did not, as a result, fully engage with the rookie out in California, but that's okay.

"How about that? They put the guy out there for a curtain call and the first ball is hit right [to him],” said Guardians manager Terry Francona. “Sometimes, maybe things work out for a reason."

https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-cabrera-walks-plays-first-base-in-final-mlb-game

'how often do you see it? guy makes a great play in the field and it turns out he's leading off the next inning!'

will also miss tito. glad neither of them got thrown out of the game

It was lovely seeing the gifts he got at various stadiums on the way. Except for the A’s giving him a bottle of wine…wtf was that

I watched the highlights of his final game and was struck by how lucky we are to have these nice final moments of HOF-worthy players. I think this is something new -- what happened in Reggie Jackson's final game? Rod Carew's final game? Great players retire now and their final moments in MLB become news, with a touching send-off that people can remember forever. Jeter and Petitte made the pitching change to remove Mo Rivera from his final game, Joe Mauer came in to catch one last time ... this stuff is priceless.

I def remember that broken bat rocking chair Mariano got. Thought it was insanely cool.

These are pretty cool too

The Tigers gave Miggy Jordan cleats made out of baseballs from milestone moments throughout his career 🤯 pic.twitter.com/jcKl2o80D2

— MLB Life (@MLBLife) September 30, 2023