Greater career - Mike Trout or Bryce Harper?

Interesting. I'm working on the traditional model of best all-around on-base/power guy at #3--the Pujols/Cabrera guy--the McGwires bat cleanup, and the on-base/speed guys bat leadoff. The #2 guy is the low-strikeout contact hitter with some extra-base power: Ken Griffey Sr., just to show how up-to-date I am.

stats bros also claim lineup order doesn't really matter, just get your best players the most PAs

Yes--James used to run thousands of computer simulations and found that the difference between the lineups of maximum and minimum effectiveness wasn't all that significant. (I don't remember--maybe 25 runs a year?) Having said that, I'd still rather have Trout batting leadoff than second (least of all batting second behind a shortstop with a .300 OBP). I don't know if he unnerves the opposition the way Henderson used to, but at almost a run a game, give him the extra PAs, and get him up there first every game.

both hit homers tonight.

I think the general stathead view is that Cabrera is the best hitter right now, Trout the best player.

there was an argument when bonds was going batshit that the giants should bat him leadoff to force the opposition to pitch to him at LEAST once.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/22290653/video-mike-trout-takes-ervin-santana-way-way-deep

holy cannoli

he's gonna get that many more first-inning rbis now

iirc the stats bros claim you should use yr best hitter at #2

― mookieproof, Thursday, May 23, 2013 6:10 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah keith law says this, i'm not familiar with the rationale really

stats bros also claim lineup order doesn't really matter, just get your best players the most PAs

― ty based gay dead computer god (zachlyon), Thursday, May 23, 2013 6:26 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is what i tell my softball team every year!

weird that trout has -0.5 dbWAR so far this year

for the last time no one care's about your friend debbie's WAR formula

haha

trout's bomb went 463 feet btw

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?

input slash lines, get expected runs; don't know how accurate it is today
I used it when I was playing Simnasium Baseball a bit, mostly what I gleaned is that lineup differences aren't that big as long as you don't put together the least-optimal lineup

"Leading off and playing shortstop, Dave Kingman!"

I typed in a fake lineup and tried that--pretty neat. Batting your best hitter second does yield the top dozen or so lineups.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9314060/bryce-harper-washington-nationals-aggravates-sore-knee

I can't remember how I voted in this poll, but I hope it was Trout. Hubris is going to catch up to Harper.

you think trout would meekly acquiesce to sitting out a few games?

i don't really like harper but he's 20 years old and super competitive, and if it were andrelton you'd be cheering his moxie. nothing to do with hubris (yet)

I think Harper's does dumb stuff like running full tilt into walls because he's 20 and thinks he's invincible. I used "hubris" because of the refusal to change his slides. "It hurts me to slide headfirst, but I'm not going to change, because changing might hurt." Andrelton and my other BFF, Heyward, have both done time on the DL for headfirst-slide hand injuries, and I wasn't cheering anybody's moxie.

And of course Andrelton just slid headfirst into 2nd, lol.

Harper, who twice tried to return to action after his wall collision in Los Angeles only to then be forced back to the bench, admitted that this was one of those cases. In fact, Harper says he probably should've gone on the DL after banging into the wall here at Turner Field in Atlanta on April 30, a collision that left him with a bad bruise on his left side.

"Of course. But I didn't want to go on (the DL). I thought hopefully my body could have got past it," Harper said. "I think after I hit the wall here (in Atlanta), I think I should have went on the DL, just try to get better and came back 15 days later. With a lot of guys out, I wanted to stay in the lineup the way I was swinging it. Of course, I want to play every day. It's something that, maybe I'll learn more in my career to take off 15 days instead of lose the month or whatever it is.

"If we're in September, October, I'm going to play. I wouldn't be sitting out right now. It's just one of those things where, you've got to be smart about what you do. Just try to come in every day and get better and do things the right way."
Prior to colliding with the right field wall here in Atlanta, injuring his left side in the process, Harper had a slash line of .356/.437/.744. In the 19 games he's played since that collision, he's hitting .183/.315/.350.

Harper again was asked if his all-out style of play will cause him to be more injury-prone than the average player.

"I think it's just the way I play," Harper said. "I go out there, I want to give 110 percent to these fans and for myself. I look at myself in the mirror and tell myself, 'Hey, you gave it your all today. I went 0-for-4, it happens.' A good day on the field means I'm going 110 percent, going hard, running everything out and doing things the right way. I'm not going to change that aspect at all.

"The way I work in the offseason, the way I work and get ready for my season, I don't think I'm prone to having a shorter career. I think I'm going play this game for 20 years, and I don't care what anybody says."

IOW, "My job is to play hard. Playing smart is for pussies."

With the deadline on this poll fast approaching, it might be worth revisiting. Yes, I'd still take Trout without much hesitation. But at the moment, they're in the same orbit.

Harper's advantage now is youth. He might pile up significantly better counting stats -- and rates too, assuming his speed/power holds up for the next 6-8 years at least.

Harper's huge game last night moved his OPS+ back over 200. I only count eight guys who've done that since 1960: Bonds (a whole bunch of times), McGwire, Bagwell, Thomas, McCovey, Mantle, Brett, Sosa, and Norm Cash.

in less sexy stats, 40th homer tonight

Seventh guy under 23 to do so. The others: Ott, DiMaggio, Matthews, Bench, Gonzalez, and A-Rod.

Unless Trout ups his BB% of his HR rate or Harper gets injured, I strongly suspect that this is going to be Harper from here on out. That said in terms of WAR he'll never catch up to Trout's 5/7 year peak and it might take him ten years to surpass in career WAR (a 16 WAR lead is a huge #).

Trout is 5th in the AL in homers and has just four fewer than Harper, I'm not sure why you see his HR rate as a weakness in comparison to Harper.

Trout has equaled his WAR from last year with two weeks left in the season, so he's not regressing. Maybe you're assuming that Harper will get even better, but I think it's more likely that this is his career peak season. Trout's been consistently amazing for four years, Harper has been great (and healthy) for one year.

It's def premature to declare a 'winner,' but a peak season at 22 would be... unusual.

Since I noted his slide on the Trout thread, he's had probably his best week since the break (.263/ .391/ .632).

I think (and this is just talk there is no science here who knows what these dudes will do going forward) that in order for Trout to achieve parity with Harper going forward he's going to have to either draw more walks or hit more homers (this is relative to what he's doing now). I think the speed/position/defense differences won't make up Harper's huge advantage in OBP otherwise.

I also think that going forward Harper is going to hit a lot lot more homers without necessarily sacrificing any other part of his offense. Trout may do that but to exceed Harper BB advantage it would have to be a huge jump.

Harper has also been pretty great relative to his age group from the get go. This seems unlikely to be a flash in the pan season. I'd be surprised (barring injury) for him not to continue at this level through his peak years.

harper is still waiting for the rest of his age group to break into the majors, for the most part!

i don't know who will be better. they're both phenomenal. i just hope that they both stay relatively healthy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harpers-quest-to-join-bonds-mantle-ruth/

I think (and this is just talk there is no science here who knows what these dudes will do going forward) that in order for Trout to achieve parity with Harper going forward he's going to have to either draw more walks or hit more homers (this is relative to what he's doing now). I think the speed/position/defense differences won't make up Harper's huge advantage in OBP otherwise.

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Thursday, September 17, 2015 10:29 AM (4 hours ago)

i mean those other things were basically what made trout special! trout's a league-average fielder and baserunner at this point -- which seems crazy to say -- so if that continues then yeah, i don't think he can win a mash-off vs harper. but maybe trout slims down a bit again and improves other parts of his game; if he can do that he can be every bit as good as harper, even if harper is putting up monster offensive seasons like this

the thing too is like these kids are SO YOUNG, it seems foolish to predict what's going to happen next year with them let alone in 5 or 10 years. trout in particular has changed his game so much since he's been in the bigs

Sure this is just amateur prognosticating. That said idea of Trout slimming down strikes me as unlikely (just his build alone).

he's always been huge but iirc two offseasons ago he beefed up even more to his current state, which coincided nicely with his drop-offs on the bases and in the field

Trout is reading this thread and he's not pleased.

haha!

I just find it weird to pick through the deficiencies in Trout's game when he's putting up his fourth straight 8+ WAR season and this year is only a win or a win and a half worse than Harper in what might be Harper's peak season.

He's like 6-7 years from his peak. They both are.

xp it's pointing out deficiencies to say you suspect that he will not be as good as another player going forward?!?! Maybe I'm missing point of thread comparing these two dudes.

People seem to be assuming (correct me if I'm wrong) that Trout is slowly declining (or has peaked already) and Harper will continue at his current pace (or possibly improve). I'm not really getting the logic there, for me, it looks more likely that Trout is still as great as he ever was and Harper may have peaked already. Let's wait for Harper to put up at least one more great (and healthy) season before saying this is the new norm.

Nope I'm going to predict it's the new norm! Good thing nothing depends on me being right (well maybe the respect of message board posters lol but frankly I never had much of that right).

You might have bragging rights on Friday Jan 1, 2027 when we'll finally know the answer! Those are some heavy stakes.

i think it's pretty safe to say harper has "peaked", given that he's having a truly historic offensive season. it's pretty unlikely that he's going to get BETTER. i mean what's he going to do, hit .400? put up a 13 win season?

he might go .370/.520/.730

Uh hit even more homers. Draw even more walks.

hr every at bat

People seem to be assuming (correct me if I'm wrong) that Trout is slowly declining

parts of his game (baserunning, defense) have been rapidly declining since his first full year. people quickly became married to the idea of trout as the modern day willie mays, so even if his offense makes up for it they're still gonna focus on how he went from being a five-tool guy to a one-tool guy.

If you take a single season of WAR as a measure of peak (which should be defined more broadly, but let's say you do), I don't think it would be that surprising if Trout never again reaches his 10.8 of 2012 or Harper his ~11.0 of this year (if he stays on course). However it's calculated, and I still couldn't tell you how, a WAR of 11.0+ for a position player is extremely hard to do. Six guys have done it post-war: Mantle (twice), Mays (twice), Yaz, Morgan, Ripken, Bonds (twice). Trout would have been the seventh with a full season in 2012, Harper may be the seventh this year. If you took all players since the war, it would be far, far more likely to find players who had their greatest seasons at age 21 or age 22 than players who hit 11.0+ in a single year.

If you limited that to just great players, though--and start with the reasonable assumption that Trout and Harper will have great careers--I don't know. I'm guessing the great majority of HOF players since the war had their greatest single seasons after the age of 25.

Harper just mashed one oppo vs Porcello into the Monster seats

Leaning Trout.

I wonder what we're going to think about the Harper and Machado contracts five years from now?

good question

Similar Batters through 30
Barry Bonds (934.5)

aight we just need to get him some cream and some clear and make the next decade exciting

seeing this pop up made me think of Trout as a Mantle figure if the injuries keep piling up (inner circle Hall of Famer but still a what if) but Harper is no Willie.

per similar batters, though, Duke Snider is a strong comparison. Hopefully the aging curve is kinder to Harper.