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A quick glance at ESPN's advanced team statistics shows a clear trend during this postseason. Of the NBA's six best offensive teams during the regular season, as measured by offensive rating, only the Miami Heat are still playing. Meanwhile, the Heat are the lone team outside the top three in defensive rating yet to go fishing.
This year's results may breathe life into the age-old axiom that "defense wins championships." Does it? Let's take a look at what the numbers say about the value of a strong defense in the playoffs.
Defense Doesn't Win Championships; Balance Does
When it comes to winning titles, the numbers are clear: The formula isn't offense or defense, but offense and defense. Both are needed to win a championship, at least since Bill Russell's Boston Celtics dominated the NBA primarily on the strength of their defense.
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During the NBA's 3-point era, dating to 1980, the league's best offensive team has won seven championships. The best defensive team has won six. But the team with the best point differential, combining elite offense and defense, has won 14 titles -- more than 40 percent of the time.
Looking beyond the top spot, top-five and top-10 defenses have won a few more championships than their offensive counterparts. On average, champions rank slightly better on defense, though in both categories the typical champion ranks between fifth or sixth overall.
It's hard to find examples of teams with a weakness at either end of the floor winning a championship. In the past 33 years, just two teams have won the title with a below-average unit during the regular season: the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers (19th on defense) and the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (18th on offense).
Rank Offense Defense Differential
No. 1 7 6 14
Top 5 18 20 28
Top 10 28 30 32
Other 5 3 1
But Defense Might Win Series . . .
It is in the early rounds when defensive-minded teams do seem to have something of an advantage. The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies, the NBA's two best defenses during the regular season, reached the conference finals by combining to knock off the No. 1 (Oklahoma City Thunder), No. 3 (New York Knicks) and No. 4 (Los Angeles Clippers) offenses without the benefit of home-court advantage.
Those results continue the trend of defensive prowess predicting series outcomes better than offensive efficiency. In the past decade (2003-12), the better offensive team won 89 of 150 series (59.3 percent). The better defensive team won 103 (68.7 percent). This tendency is apparently new in the past 10 years. In "Basketball on Paper," Dean Oliver of ESPN Stats & Info found that from 1974 to 2002, the better offensive team was more likely to win the series.
The offense/defense split isn't particularly meaningful in lopsided series, but it shows up as a huge factor when two teams are evenly matched. Of the 33 series in the past decade where the two teams had point differentials within a point of each other in the regular season, the better defensive team went 23-10, while the better offensive team went just 12-21.
The only matchup that qualified this season was Indiana-New York, separated by 0.4 points per game in differential. The next two closest series, Brooklyn-Chicago (1.3) and Memphis-Clippers (2.1), were also won in upsets by the superior defense.
... and Timely Defense Can Win Championships
Not even the most devout believer in the motto would suggest that Miami is doomed because of the worst defense among the four teams left playing (the Heat were seventh in defensive rating during the regular season). That's partially because of Miami's superior -- and dominant -- overall balance. Beyond that, the Heat are also favored because they have the ability to play better defense than they showed during the regular season.
On average, post-1980 champions who ranked outside the top five in defensive rating during the regular season have improved their defense by 1.9 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs when adjusted for opposition. The 2001 Lakers are the ultimate example of this trend. With Shaquille O'Neal healthy and focused, the Lakers defended their championship by turning their below-average defense during the regular season into the league's best in a 15-1 playoff run.
Miami is unlikely to match that kind of improvement, in part because the Heat's defense wasn't nearly as bad in the first place. But the first couple of rounds of the playoffs have shown Miami's defensive potential. Although the Heat haven't really been tested yet, they held the Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls 7.8 points per 100 possessions below their regular-season output. That puts Miami fourth in the league in adjusted playoff defense -- ahead of the Pacers (plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions on defense through the first two rounds).
If the Heat's size, athleticism and ability to force turnovers make them the better defense in the conference finals and NBA Finals, that plus their potent offense would be unbeatable. More than defense alone, the combination of good offense and timely defense is a proven formula for championships.
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 22 May 2013 16:20 (ten years ago) link