Greater career - Mike Trout or Bryce Harper?

I don't know why, but I love when players stat lines with double digits in 3B to go with good HR and 2B numbers. It just screams either 1.) I'm a crazy good athlete or 2.) I'm a crazy baseball player and am going to take every base you will give me.

how many caught stealing?

He's been caught seven times, so fairly ordinary. Don't know why I threw SB in. Force of habit--he'll be famous for other things.

Bryce should've braced for the impact with his hair.

http://d3fsqtc6sy2z27.cloudfront.net/uploads/c67d7fe02d23e32ee912303479ad4544_large

yaow

11 stitches in chin

No one posted about Trout's cycle last night? I just found out now.

he got halfway to another cycle in the first 2 innings tonight

maybe if he did more 'card tricks' like that he'd win an MVP, eh?

You're not still on that, are you? But you might be right--Cabrera's 2012 must have been a cheap card trick, because he's doing it all over again.

no disrespect to Miggy but him winning the MVP over Trout was such a joke

if Hamilton or the Grandyman hit two more then Miggy's not the MVP. why the hell do we even have an MVP award

As the season wound down last year--last week or so, say--I think the writers had decided they were going to give the MVP to Cabrera whether he got the TC or not. I'm not agreeing, but I don't think it's right to say the MVP was 100% predicated on the TC. Anyway, my point was that if there were an implied equivalency between a Triple Crown and hitting for the cycle--both just gimmicky parlor tricks--well, you know.

the triple crown is pretty impressive but then again we were a Gwynn broken wrist and a piazza lingering back injury away from a Dante Bichette triple crown so idk.

This again. I think Trout should have won but, you know, he achieved his basic rate stats -- all very close to those of Cabrera -- with 22 fewer games played. I can't fault a writer who took that into consideration and voted for Cabrera (who won by a fairly wide margin, right?).

xpost

no disrespect to Miggy but him winning the MVP over Trout was such a joke

if Hamilton or the Grandyman hit two more then Miggy's not the MVP. why the hell do we even have an MVP award

― frogbs, Wednesday, May 22, 2013 11:56 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is sort of a silly argument though, seeing as finishing with the most home runs IS important and awards voting is based on accomplishment relative to the rest of the players and not some random baseline. hamilton and granderson finished with fewer home runs than miggy, as did everyone else in the AL, and that's an accomplishment for miggy.

the ridiculous thing is that people still care about the triple crown at all when it's just an antique baseball card holdover that only considers one factor of offensive production and provides a good excuse for throwing out all the other ones

I'd like to point out I only called a cycle a card trick.

It's a difference of two. Obviously hitting 30 home runs in a year where the next highest guy only gets 15 is a huge deal. I mean I guess you can argue that they were going to give it to Miggy triple crown or no, which makes the voters look even worse. Miggy's season is certainly MVP-caliber but Trout's was the best since the days of Barry Bonds, and he did it while missing almost a full month.

Okay--I inferred an implication (or implied an inferrence) from Morbius that wasn't there.

I think any observant baseball fan makes adjustments as necessary. If Bichette had won a Triple Crown that year, I don't think it would have been taken all that seriously. Coors Field obviously inflated his stats drastically in all three categories, and he also clearly would have been the worst player ever to achieve a TC.

I think it's a bad choice of words to call Cabrera's MVP a joke. The wrong choice, I'd agree, but he wasn't Andre Dawson in 1987. (You've stepped that back in your last post.)

Something I hadn't noticed until looking at the boxscores for Trout's last couple of games: the Angels have been batting him second for most of this season (80%+ of his PA)? I don't get it. You've got the greatest leadoff hitter since Rickey Henderson in your lineup, coming off a year where he scored just under a run per game, and you move him down to the second spot? I thought for a second I'd see Henderson or Ty Cobb at the top of the Angels' lineup, but no.

he's gonna get that many more first-inning rbis now

iirc the stats bros claim you should use yr best hitter at #2

Interesting. I'm working on the traditional model of best all-around on-base/power guy at #3--the Pujols/Cabrera guy--the McGwires bat cleanup, and the on-base/speed guys bat leadoff. The #2 guy is the low-strikeout contact hitter with some extra-base power: Ken Griffey Sr., just to show how up-to-date I am.

stats bros also claim lineup order doesn't really matter, just get your best players the most PAs

Yes--James used to run thousands of computer simulations and found that the difference between the lineups of maximum and minimum effectiveness wasn't all that significant. (I don't remember--maybe 25 runs a year?) Having said that, I'd still rather have Trout batting leadoff than second (least of all batting second behind a shortstop with a .300 OBP). I don't know if he unnerves the opposition the way Henderson used to, but at almost a run a game, give him the extra PAs, and get him up there first every game.

both hit homers tonight.

I think the general stathead view is that Cabrera is the best hitter right now, Trout the best player.

there was an argument when bonds was going batshit that the giants should bat him leadoff to force the opposition to pitch to him at LEAST once.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/22290653/video-mike-trout-takes-ervin-santana-way-way-deep

holy cannoli

he's gonna get that many more first-inning rbis now

iirc the stats bros claim you should use yr best hitter at #2

― mookieproof, Thursday, May 23, 2013 6:10 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah keith law says this, i'm not familiar with the rationale really

stats bros also claim lineup order doesn't really matter, just get your best players the most PAs

― ty based gay dead computer god (zachlyon), Thursday, May 23, 2013 6:26 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is what i tell my softball team every year!

weird that trout has -0.5 dbWAR so far this year

for the last time no one care's about your friend debbie's WAR formula

haha

trout's bomb went 463 feet btw

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?

input slash lines, get expected runs; don't know how accurate it is today
I used it when I was playing Simnasium Baseball a bit, mostly what I gleaned is that lineup differences aren't that big as long as you don't put together the least-optimal lineup

"Leading off and playing shortstop, Dave Kingman!"

I typed in a fake lineup and tried that--pretty neat. Batting your best hitter second does yield the top dozen or so lineups.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9314060/bryce-harper-washington-nationals-aggravates-sore-knee

I can't remember how I voted in this poll, but I hope it was Trout. Hubris is going to catch up to Harper.

you think trout would meekly acquiesce to sitting out a few games?

i don't really like harper but he's 20 years old and super competitive, and if it were andrelton you'd be cheering his moxie. nothing to do with hubris (yet)

I think Harper's does dumb stuff like running full tilt into walls because he's 20 and thinks he's invincible. I used "hubris" because of the refusal to change his slides. "It hurts me to slide headfirst, but I'm not going to change, because changing might hurt." Andrelton and my other BFF, Heyward, have both done time on the DL for headfirst-slide hand injuries, and I wasn't cheering anybody's moxie.

And of course Andrelton just slid headfirst into 2nd, lol.

Harper, who twice tried to return to action after his wall collision in Los Angeles only to then be forced back to the bench, admitted that this was one of those cases. In fact, Harper says he probably should've gone on the DL after banging into the wall here at Turner Field in Atlanta on April 30, a collision that left him with a bad bruise on his left side.

"Of course. But I didn't want to go on (the DL). I thought hopefully my body could have got past it," Harper said. "I think after I hit the wall here (in Atlanta), I think I should have went on the DL, just try to get better and came back 15 days later. With a lot of guys out, I wanted to stay in the lineup the way I was swinging it. Of course, I want to play every day. It's something that, maybe I'll learn more in my career to take off 15 days instead of lose the month or whatever it is.

"If we're in September, October, I'm going to play. I wouldn't be sitting out right now. It's just one of those things where, you've got to be smart about what you do. Just try to come in every day and get better and do things the right way."
Prior to colliding with the right field wall here in Atlanta, injuring his left side in the process, Harper had a slash line of .356/.437/.744. In the 19 games he's played since that collision, he's hitting .183/.315/.350.

Harper again was asked if his all-out style of play will cause him to be more injury-prone than the average player.

"I think it's just the way I play," Harper said. "I go out there, I want to give 110 percent to these fans and for myself. I look at myself in the mirror and tell myself, 'Hey, you gave it your all today. I went 0-for-4, it happens.' A good day on the field means I'm going 110 percent, going hard, running everything out and doing things the right way. I'm not going to change that aspect at all.

"The way I work in the offseason, the way I work and get ready for my season, I don't think I'm prone to having a shorter career. I think I'm going play this game for 20 years, and I don't care what anybody says."

IOW, "My job is to play hard. Playing smart is for pussies."

With the deadline on this poll fast approaching, it might be worth revisiting. Yes, I'd still take Trout without much hesitation. But at the moment, they're in the same orbit.

Harper's advantage now is youth. He might pile up significantly better counting stats -- and rates too, assuming his speed/power holds up for the next 6-8 years at least.

Harper's huge game last night moved his OPS+ back over 200. I only count eight guys who've done that since 1960: Bonds (a whole bunch of times), McGwire, Bagwell, Thomas, McCovey, Mantle, Brett, Sosa, and Norm Cash.

in less sexy stats, 40th homer tonight

Seventh guy under 23 to do so. The others: Ott, DiMaggio, Matthews, Bench, Gonzalez, and A-Rod.

Unless Trout ups his BB% of his HR rate or Harper gets injured, I strongly suspect that this is going to be Harper from here on out. That said in terms of WAR he'll never catch up to Trout's 5/7 year peak and it might take him ten years to surpass in career WAR (a 16 WAR lead is a huge #).

Trout is 5th in the AL in homers and has just four fewer than Harper, I'm not sure why you see his HR rate as a weakness in comparison to Harper.

Trout has equaled his WAR from last year with two weeks left in the season, so he's not regressing. Maybe you're assuming that Harper will get even better, but I think it's more likely that this is his career peak season. Trout's been consistently amazing for four years, Harper has been great (and healthy) for one year.

It's def premature to declare a 'winner,' but a peak season at 22 would be... unusual.

Since I noted his slide on the Trout thread, he's had probably his best week since the break (.263/ .391/ .632).

I think (and this is just talk there is no science here who knows what these dudes will do going forward) that in order for Trout to achieve parity with Harper going forward he's going to have to either draw more walks or hit more homers (this is relative to what he's doing now). I think the speed/position/defense differences won't make up Harper's huge advantage in OBP otherwise.

I also think that going forward Harper is going to hit a lot lot more homers without necessarily sacrificing any other part of his offense. Trout may do that but to exceed Harper BB advantage it would have to be a huge jump.

Both these dudes reinforcing some opinions today

My golfing friend didn't play tonight because he's at the Jays game; Trout's hit two HR, one a grand slam.

Right now, Harper isn't even in the WAR team top 10 headshots on the 2019 Phillies Baseball Reference page.

That homer Trout hit the night before and that rookie hit were absolute bombs the night before in Toronto.

I still think it's funny that, for me--whether fair or not--the most devastating nickname ever was Steinbrenner playing off of Reggie and calling Winfield "Mr. May," and Harper comes along and basically lays claim to "Mr. April."

it appears that harper has started all but one of the phillies' 73 games (he was a pinch hitter in one game last week). which might not be the most productive use of a guy who's scuffling

Trout finished 3-6 tonight with the 2 HR and 7 RBI. in his worst season he won the MVP award.

mike trout is hitting .420 in 69 career at-bats with the bases loaded

this is not a joke

101 rbis in those 69 AB....

I was checking Bryce’s B-Ref page and he’s got that WAR up to 2.6, which means barring some absurd hot streak (not an impossibility obv) he’ll finish outside the NL top ten again. He only finished in the top ten once, in his MVP season. fWAR may tell a different tale but idk.

Trout is presently at 8.1, finally ahead of Cody for the MLB lead.

He's having a great August--8 HR, .678 SLB--and he picked the perfect time to get hot, but yeah, he'd dug himself such a hole in the spring, he'll have to stay hot to put up a 4.0-5.0 WAR season. I'm not sure you'd even call him overrated anymore, because I doubt there are many writers left who view him as one of the best players in the game. Overpaid, definitely.

Sorry he’s only at 2.4 bWAR!

At $9M/win on the open market (or thereabouts), he's not overpaid. Maybe on the back end of the contract he will be, but based on AAV, he's worth the money.

As a fan you probably expect more from the player who signed the biggest contract in baseball history (total value) (at the time), but that's a different story.

have to go with trout

i feel like trout has the advantage

Trout has arguably had the better start to his career

If I had to pick one over the other, though. I don’t know.

This has now become a clowning-around thread.

At $9M/win on the open market (or thereabouts), he's not overpaid.

I'm actually about halfway through Baseball Prospectus's book Between the Numbers, and there's a chapter on that. (The book came out 10+ years ago, but it delves into basic issues still debated today.) If you take one number to measure that, yes; a 5 WAR x $9M/win makes him worth considerably more than the $11M he's getting this year--much more than the $27M a year he'll be getting for the next decade, even. But they provided three or four ways to approach that. He's worth the money in years like this one, where the Phillies are in the middle of a playoff race and probably going to end up in that 85-90 win window. If they're below that, though, or safely above it, that $9M figure drops appreciably. And whether he's worth it compared to other free-agents and upper-echelon (my preferred term for the ubiquitous and suddenly annoying "elite") players, another way they measure that, I think that's more open to debate. Skip forward to next year and assume he puts up 6.0 WAR. I have to believe that any team spending wisely and getting a little bit of luck (or at least avoiding bad luck) could generate a lot more than 6 WAR with $27 million.

Or you could be the Toronto Blue Jays, paying $45M right now to Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, and Kendrys Morales, about 40% of their current payroll. Give me Bryce Harper for $27M!

Unless Trout ups his BB% of his HR rate or Harper gets injured, I strongly suspect that this is going to be Harper from here on out

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Thursday, September 17, 2015 8:38 AM (three years ago) bookmarkflaglink

what lottery tickets should I buy?

Kind of embarrassing to see Trout being measured more against Bellinger and Yelich these days.

Harper just mashed one oppo vs Porcello into the Monster seats

Leaning Trout.

I wonder what we're going to think about the Harper and Machado contracts five years from now?

good question

Similar Batters through 30
Barry Bonds (934.5)

aight we just need to get him some cream and some clear and make the next decade exciting

seeing this pop up made me think of Trout as a Mantle figure if the injuries keep piling up (inner circle Hall of Famer but still a what if) but Harper is no Willie.

per similar batters, though, Duke Snider is a strong comparison. Hopefully the aging curve is kinder to Harper.