Is there anything the Labour Party can do to win the next election?

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They would have won in November 2007 as well.

-- Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:40 (20 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

In the middle of the Northern Rock crisis?

Was last month they had a chance of winning. Though the non-economic bad news was coming thick and fast then (the hospital bug stuff and that harman business seem a long time ago now). public still believed northern rock was isolated incident and could be contained

Are you kidding here?

About Major? No. Wasn't sure if his aura of incompetence was quite as bad as Browns or not - was genuine question

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:09 (fifteen years ago) link

This govt has a long long way to go before it reaches the aura of incompetence that Major achieved. Thing with Major is, the media knew he was a dead duck and sensing blood were pretty much relentless in their attack. The same thing could now happen to Brown, and Cameron's policies might not be put under the scrutiny they deserve.

Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:09 (fifteen years ago) link

The root of the problem is American subprime - without that the credit crunch wouldn't have occurred

Don't believe this to be true. It merely happened in america first.

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:10 (fifteen years ago) link

Am talking about Major 90-92 here though, the Major that managed to win an election!

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:10 (fifteen years ago) link

This is the man to save Labour: John McDonnell

djmartian, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:11 (fifteen years ago) link

Well, unless it happened in Britain first, it would still be outside Brown's jurisdiction?

(xpost - I'm so disappointed that didn't say 'Harry Redknapp')

Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:11 (fifteen years ago) link

major's aura of incompetence began with black wednesday -- ie several months after april 1992 election, tom

wrt leader-changing: labour doesn't actually have the unite-the-two-wings problem that meant the tories had to go through three further self-evident duds to find an empty vessel -- however this is still a massive punt that doesn't address deeper problems within the party since its blair-is-all reshaping

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:12 (fifteen years ago) link

damage to brown's alleged deep prudent subtle grasp of economics = running the UK economy as if all was well in the world economy, and not keeping some trick in reserve for subprime problem even when it was but the size of a small child's fist far off on the otherwise blemishless horizon -- it's ture that next to no one (apart from a handful of ecnomo-bear cassandras) was saying VERY BAD STUFF AHEAD, so brown isn't alone for not knowing better, but all this means is he gets to wear an "as clueless as the rest of em" badge, which in this context is no help

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:16 (fifteen years ago) link

This is the man to save Labour: John Ramsay McDonnell

fixed

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:19 (fifteen years ago) link

I'm not sure how he managed to get the prudent tag in the first place given the huge increases in debt and the huge increases in money supply that occured during his tenure

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:23 (fifteen years ago) link

Urgently required: 1 Labour-saving device

Tom D., Friday, 2 May 2008 10:23 (fifteen years ago) link

Ask Tony Blair if he wants his old job back.

caek, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:26 (fifteen years ago) link

Brown was prudently counter cyclical for the first half of his tenure, then the wheels fell of that plan.

Ed, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:26 (fifteen years ago) link

One or two senior government figures will suddenly start saying as little as possible in order to drop off the radar and avoid being tainted by this govt's last couple of years. Anyone heard anything from Jack Straw lately?

-- Matt DC, Friday, May 2, 2008

seems to be 3rd favourite behind Cameron and Osbourne to be next PM

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/uk-cabinet-specials/next-prime-minister

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:26 (fifteen years ago) link

"huge increases in debt" <--- a. no one considered qualified to comment considered this a problem, b. it wasn't g.brown's personal debt it's all those chavs (<--- taxicab thinking not mine)

prudent = nothing much went pearshaped
qualified to comment = economic and financial commentary in general is indicted by subprime (which is a a bit of a reflex marker anyway for colossal scale of debt in key western economies at all levels)

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:29 (fifteen years ago) link

The prudence tag came from a first term "hey look Britain we are not going to lavish money on everything in the first five minutes and then realise there's nothing in the cash register" and he got attacked by the left for sticking to Tory spending plans. Damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing.

Also, Brown actually paid off a big chunk of national debt prior to the 2001 election which won the continued support of the Sun. Obviously he borrowed more since, but it's worth noting.

I worry about the cuts in spending that will arise from a Tory government plus failing economy. I suspect this is the nasty stuff Cameron is holding over until after the election.

Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:31 (fifteen years ago) link

well debt and money supply are the same thing anyway so the reiteration wasn't required. debt can be written off as personal problems I guess - but call it what it really is - money supply - and the fault comes back to the administration

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:31 (fifteen years ago) link

oh god i just realised: three phrases that will now never be off pundit lips

i: stalking horse
ii: throw his/her hat in the ring
iii: last chance fucking saloon

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:32 (fifteen years ago) link

you forgot

GREEN SHOOTS OF RECOVERY

ad nauseum for next 5 years

laxalt, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:32 (fifteen years ago) link

iii: last chance fucking saloon

Not sure about this one. Unless it's Jeremy Vine: Live and Uncensored.

Michael Jones, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:36 (fifteen years ago) link

haha when i looked up black wednesday -- via the medium of norman "just been fisted" lamont's wiki -- it says that's one of the phrases he most regrets using (motto of april 1992 election): that and singing in the bath (or telling the world he had done so)

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:36 (fifteen years ago) link

Stalking horses are v. unlikely under current Labour party rules, Brown would have to actually call a leadership election.

Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:38 (fifteen years ago) link

oh god i just realised: three phrases that will now never be off pundit lips

i: stalking horse
ii: throw his/her hat in the ring
iii: last chance fucking saloon

LAME DUCK

Tom D., Friday, 2 May 2008 10:39 (fifteen years ago) link

or the PLP would have to kneecap him xpost

Ed, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:40 (fifteen years ago) link

http://marcio.net/photos/cd0009/echo_park-one_legged_duck-0797.jpg

Ed, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:41 (fifteen years ago) link

That would make any duck lame

Tom D., Friday, 2 May 2008 10:41 (fifteen years ago) link

That is the cutest thing ever.

Matt DC, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:42 (fifteen years ago) link

OK now that laxalt has spoken I am confident Labour will win the next election

ILX's very own mystic Mogg!

Neil S, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:47 (fifteen years ago) link

Had the Tories called a snap GE after the bounce they received post-Thatcher resignation/Major election, they may well have won. I do recall in mid-1990 - the absolute depths of Thatcher's unpopularity - there were polls suggesting Lab's huge lead would be wiped out by a change of Tory leader (Heseltine was the fave then, of course). They hung on for two years and, fortunately for them, Kinnock's popularity curved gently up, then down.

Labour's late '07/early '08 is the Tories' late '92...

Michael Jones, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:48 (fifteen years ago) link

"The term stalking horse originally derived from the practice of hunting, particularly of wildfowl. Hunters noticed that many birds would flee immediately on the approach of humans, but would tolerate the close presence of animals such as horses and cattle.

"Hunters would therefore slowly approach their quarry by walking alongside their horses, keeping their upper bodies out of sight until the flock was within firing range. Animals trained for this purpose were called stalking horses. Sometimes "fake" or pantomime horse-style outfits would be used."

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise.

There is something so weirdly dissociated about the public announcement of stalking-horsism: ok wildfowl are a bit dim when it comes to the relationship of humans with guns and horses, fair enough THEY ARE BIRDS AND THEY HAVE TINY BRAINS, but actual real competent or even quite incompetent politicians are reading that someone has loudly announced their intention to get the hunter up close by means of a ruse

bah

*goes and has goat got*

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:49 (fifteen years ago) link

birds obviously not that brainy as they cannot count legs; 4 safe, 6 danger

Ed, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:51 (fifteen years ago) link

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

what am i saying jeremy vine has already started dressing up hasn't he

mark s, Friday, 2 May 2008 10:53 (fifteen years ago) link

ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

Design department on Newsnight working on this as we speak

Tom D., Friday, 2 May 2008 10:55 (fifteen years ago) link

Could they run ads with the slogan "Do you remember the last Tory government?", with a montage of images of Major, Thatcher, that guy who broke the pound, Michael Howard, and then David Cameron.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Friday, 2 May 2008 11:50 (fifteen years ago) link

Yougov, who had the results of the London Mayoral elections spot on (much closer than any other pollers), have just issued their latest poll figures:

CON 49%
LAB 23%
LD 17%

In an general election, that would mean the Tories elected with a majority of 288 seats.

Dom Passantino, Thursday, 8 May 2008 19:21 (fifteen years ago) link

I know people are annoyed with Labour at the moment... but are 1 in every 2 people that vote at the next election really going to vote Tory? I thought Britain had moved on.

On the topic of replacing Gordon Brown - even if they did the party did want rid of him, no serious contender (e.g. (i.e.?) Milliband) is going to blow their potential future career by taking office for a couple of years and then leading Labour to a horrible defeat in 2009. Better off taking over after the next election and rebuilding in opposition.

To be honest... the most positive outcome I can realistically imagine happening is a small Tory majority after 2009 election, followed by Labour victory in 2013/4.

AlanSmithee, Thursday, 8 May 2008 21:01 (fifteen years ago) link

Melt him down and make a Boris Johnson.

Then Boris can leave the waxwork in his office and fuck off on holiday for the rest of his term.

AlanSmithee, Thursday, 8 May 2008 21:09 (fifteen years ago) link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7395545.stm

Dom Passantino, Monday, 12 May 2008 13:15 (fifteen years ago) link

Here's a plan for Labour to win the next election. They should:

- use the rest of this year to get all their fiascos, feuds and buried bodies out in the open
- at the same time take a scattergun approach and bring in lots of new initiatives which will be unpopular in the short-term but which have a chance of paying off in late 2009/2010 (no idea what these might be, but bear with me)
- it will become obvious fairly quickly that half of these new initiatives are going to be disastrous. Spend the first half of next year pinning them firmly on Brown
- but remember to change the mood music so that the story in 2009 is not about Labour feuding, but about a government trying to cope with a difficult situation, it's just that Brown can't do this. Associate the successful initiatives with a handful of guys like Miliband, Johnson and so on
- at the same time, these guys prepare quietly for a leadership challenge in late 2009, ideally as a straightforward choice between someone likeable and Brown
- DON'T CHOOSE BROWN
- new leader strips out whatever old guard is left from Labour's first term, like Straw and Darling, so that the cabinet looks youngish but still recognisable
- call the general election shortly afterwards
- portray it as a choice between two fresh administrations, one with a bit more experience than the other, and hope for the benefit of the doubt

The only problem with this plan is that it relies on: i) party discipline; ii) the government having at least a few good ideas left in the locker; and iii) Brown agreeing to be the fall guy. So it won't work. Apart from that, it's foolproof.

Ismael Klata, Monday, 12 May 2008 13:48 (fifteen years ago) link

I wonder if the talk about Field as a possible leader has got to him and he's trying to bring Brown down.

Billy Dods, Monday, 12 May 2008 14:33 (fifteen years ago) link

Field's creepy, there's a touch of the Enoch Powells about him

Tom D., Monday, 12 May 2008 14:35 (fifteen years ago) link

Why doesn't he just defect to the Tories and have done with it?

Dingbod Kesterson, Monday, 12 May 2008 14:42 (fifteen years ago) link

Cue stock "should have stuck to yodelling" pun of course.

Dingbod Kesterson, Monday, 12 May 2008 14:42 (fifteen years ago) link

Apparently a lot of the talk in Labour at the moment is of the "self-harm" strategy: try and get everything that can go wrong in the next three years to go wrong in the next six months, place the blame for everything entirely on Brown, then bring in Exciting New Leader. Except the choices there are Balls (no, just no) and Milliband (looks like a Tory).

Galloway to make a triumphant return as Labour party leader, then.

Dom Passantino, Monday, 12 May 2008 14:47 (fifteen years ago) link

Milliband (looks like a Tory).

In that case, he's perfect... provided he thinks like a Tory too

Tom D., Monday, 12 May 2008 14:48 (fifteen years ago) link

Dom that's pretty much what Ismael Klata just said

Miliband just seems like a yes-man robot drone to me

Tracer Hand, Monday, 12 May 2008 14:49 (fifteen years ago) link

She's been staunchly, tepidly supportive of him in the hope that he'll suddenly be who she thinks she wants him to be. pic.twitter.com/QFaVPtlrfr

— Kamal Prashar (@kampra) November 29, 2022

the pinefox, Tuesday, 29 November 2022 10:47 (one year ago) link

ah centrism. the vibes, the whole vibes and nothing but the vibes

this display name blocked by FIFA (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 29 November 2022 10:47 (one year ago) link

three weeks pass...

Big Beast.

Straining the already stretched metaphorical applicability of the words both “big” and “beast” IMO pic.twitter.com/vkfPlWgP1z

— Flying_Rodent (@flying_rodent) December 20, 2022

the pinefox, Tuesday, 20 December 2022 16:36 (one year ago) link

two months pass...

Tend to agree.

Nobody’s going to be able to stop Starmer getting in, but for gods sake don’t encourage the creeping fascism of the party by voting for him. The task is to break up a party that’s made itself morally meaningless and create the conditions where it’s forced to alter itself.

— matthew collings (@matthew51691936) February 20, 2023

the pinefox, Monday, 20 February 2023 18:13 (one year ago) link

do i want to click that tweet and read a bunch of maroons calling him a tory enabler? no sir, i do not

satori enabler (Noodle Vague), Monday, 20 February 2023 19:12 (one year ago) link

when the Tories have been voted out and they aren't actually opposing or voting against any of Labour's detrimental austerity+ benefits and NHS reforms and Rosie Duffield is the new minister for woman and equalities, that will be the time to congratulate yourself that you weren't no Tory enabler in 2024!

calzino, Monday, 20 February 2023 20:15 (one year ago) link

Do you really think Duffield gets any women’s or equalities job before Jess Phillips? The latter would elbow the former in the face for shits and giggles.

put a VONC on it (suzy), Tuesday, 21 February 2023 09:06 (one year ago) link

no, I was just rhetorically using Duffield for dramatic effect!

calzino, Tuesday, 21 February 2023 09:30 (one year ago) link


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