there's no such thing as a catching prospect
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 19:48 (fifteen years ago) link
It's more that there is no such thing as a completely can't miss prospect. So few dudes OPS in the mid .900s so predicting that a guy is a sure thing to do just that seems insane to me.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 19:51 (fifteen years ago) link
soto seemed to somewhat live up to expectations, no?
― The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:36 (fifteen years ago) link
I'm not saying rookies don't succeed (although Soto was not on the same level as Gordon/Wieters) just that a lot of can't miss All Star prospects become middle-of-the road ballplayers (*cough cough* Bobby Crosby.)
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:48 (fifteen years ago) link
soto's projection was much less generous - 273/352/470
― mad loli vamp bone (cankles), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:48 (fifteen years ago) link
when was this offbase Alex Gordon forecast? Last year's 50th %ile projection had him with about a point lower VORP than he ended up with (19.6).
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:49 (fifteen years ago) link
His rookie year PECOTA projected him as 280/380/520 w/ GG defense IIRC and Goldstein, Silver, Baseball America, et all talked him up like David Wright Mark II. He uh did not exceed expectations.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:51 (fifteen years ago) link
Sean Smith's CHONE, which has been shown to be just as good at projecting hitters as PECOTA, has Wieters projected at .274/.352/.439, compared to Mauer at .314/.410/.452, McCann at .297/.368/.503, and Sota at .279/.363/.474.The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.
The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.
― mad loli vamp bone (cankles), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:56 (fifteen years ago) link
*longoriacough*
― JtM Is Ruled By A Black Man (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:56 (fifteen years ago) link
who is the worst victim of PECOTA-hype ever?
Sean Burroughs?
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 21:00 (fifteen years ago) link
zomg:
It was during this time that Burroughs was given the nickname "The Bachelor," because all he could hit were singles.[4]
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 21:02 (fifteen years ago) link
we all eagerly await the SHASTA projections as a followup to all this cherrypicking.
I never look at the damn things aside from the lines in the BP annual.
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 January 2009 21:03 (fifteen years ago) link
Mitchel Lichtman has more accurately predicted the # wins per team for the 05-08 seasons than PECOTA.
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 21:15 (fifteen years ago) link
i have the nu pecota if anyone wants it
― welcome to the own zone population you (cankles), Monday, 2 February 2009 19:46 (fifteen years ago) link
SUPERVORP
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Monday, 2 February 2009 19:48 (fifteen years ago) link
YSI?
― JtM Is Ruled By A Black Man (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 2 February 2009 21:08 (fifteen years ago) link
just email me and i'll send it over (include ur email addy)
― welcome to the own zone population you (cankles), Monday, 2 February 2009 21:24 (fifteen years ago) link
# of players forecasted to have a higher OPS than Barry Bonds had (1.045) in his final "retirement" season in MLB:
One
Albert Pujols (1.052)
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Monday, 9 February 2009 16:24 (fifteen years ago) link
I realize no result standings-wise would be shocking, but still, LOL.
CLE 84-79MIN 79-83DET 78-84KAN 75-87CHI 74-88
― Andy K, Wednesday, 11 February 2009 01:01 (fifteen years ago) link
comedy central
― johnny crunch, Wednesday, 11 February 2009 01:13 (fifteen years ago) link
parity at long last
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 11 February 2009 01:15 (fifteen years ago) link
A's take AL West with 82 wins
― Andy K, Wednesday, 11 February 2009 01:24 (fifteen years ago) link
What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?
― earlnash, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 8:11 PM (11 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink
.274/.325/.44420 HR, 20 SB22.4 VORP
The VORP projection for Brandon Phillips for last year was pretty spot on.
.261 .312 .442 21 HR 23 SB
― earlnash, Wednesday, 11 February 2009 03:26 (fifteen years ago) link
why that can't be, Steve Shasta has proven it's worthless!
― Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 11 February 2009 14:24 (fifteen years ago) link
Bruce (St. Paul, MN): PECOTA predicts that Matt Wieters will hit .311/.395/.544 with a .319 EQA, 20 points higher than any other catcher. I know Wieters is a stud, but this seems way to high of a projection for a 22 year old catcher with zero AB's above AA. What are your thoughts?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:05 PM ET ) PECOTA was built using major-league stats, so I don't think it's as reliable on hitters without any big-league data. I mean, if Wieters does that, that's your AL MVP right there.
― Dr Morbius, Thursday, 12 February 2009 19:47 (fifteen years ago) link
further KLaw:
"PECOTA's very good - I wasn't saying that it was bad, just that I trust it more on players with major-league experience."
― Dr Morbius, Thursday, 12 February 2009 19:56 (fifteen years ago) link
Jamie Moyer’s card has been removed. He’s too ancient and weird for us to predict any aspect of his performance this year with PECOTA. Our official fantasy advice would be: don’t draft him.
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 27 February 2009 20:01 (fifteen years ago) link
I saw that. Hilarious.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 27 February 2009 20:08 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8653
― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 24 March 2009 16:42 (fifteen years ago) link
it is completely unbelievable to me that PECOTA has gone this long without being automated.
― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 24 March 2009 17:02 (fifteen years ago) link
handmade, dogg
― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 24 March 2009 17:10 (fifteen years ago) link
i know--like, they couldn't find a CS major who was looking for a couple months of work?
― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 24 March 2009 17:17 (fifteen years ago) link
wieters lol
― sanskrit, Sunday, 6 December 2009 21:32 (fourteen years ago) link
scottmerkin #White Sox listed in a tie for second with the Tigers at 79-83 through PECOTA projections. Twins win the AL Central at 82-80.
LOOOOL
― Andy K, Thursday, 28 January 2010 23:34 (fourteen years ago) link
NYY will miss playoffs.
― Andy K, Thursday, 28 January 2010 23:35 (fourteen years ago) link
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/PECOTA-projections-say-Yanks-will-miss-playoffs-?urn=mlb,216329
― Andy K, Thursday, 28 January 2010 23:37 (fourteen years ago) link
nats at 82-80 haha
― ciderpress, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:23 (fourteen years ago) link
this is the most o_O preliminary pecota i've seen yet
― ciderpress, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:25 (fourteen years ago) link
also nice of them to throw these up 3 days before my subscription runs out, not sure yet if i'm gonna renew again
― ciderpress, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:26 (fourteen years ago) link
ysi?
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 01:27 (fourteen years ago) link
sent to the gmail in yr profile
― ciderpress, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:46 (fourteen years ago) link
<3 u :-*
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 01:48 (fourteen years ago) link
srsly?
― johnny crunch, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:49 (fourteen years ago) link
pecota is trolling
― johnny crunch, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:52 (fourteen years ago) link
― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, March 24, 2009 12:10 PM (10 months ago) Bookmark
lol wtf
― Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Friday, 29 January 2010 01:54 (fourteen years ago) link
wtf what?
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:29 (fourteen years ago) link
you typed "dogg"!
― Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:35 (fourteen years ago) link
Initial thoughts:
09 World Champs NYY - PECOTA shows huge outlier for Jeter's 09, collapsing back to earth in 2010. Of the 9 Yankee starters (Gardner over Winn btw), only 1 player is projecting UNDER .355 OBP (Cano at .342) which is really scary. New acquisition DH Nick Johnson projects a team leading .420!
In fact, their starters (CC, Vazquez, AJ, Joba) all project high (25-43 VORP) and they've got Rivera so it leads me to believe that PECOTA2010's doom and gloom is all hinged on a questionable 5th starter and mediocre bullpen (all of which can be solved by the all-star break in typical NYY style?)...
Or is it aging defense? I don't get it...
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:43 (fourteen years ago) link
no it can't be defense, only Jeter (-11) and Posada (-4) are rated below league average.
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:48 (fourteen years ago) link
93 wins, though.
― Andy K, Friday, 29 January 2010 12:13 (fourteen years ago) link