I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

Dude, of course they could win. If you're already thinking they WILL win you've already given up. Relax.

71.6% Obama wins acc to Nate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

also taking a brief survey this morning of the republicans in my streetcar suburbs neighborhood synagogue in flipstate (ha) PA, no one is excited by Ryan pick, even among the Republicans who knew who he was.

They might. I still think, as good a two weeks as it's been for Obama, and as hopelessly inept as Romney's been so far (with no real reason to think he'll suddenly get any better), and as dicey a pick as Ryan is, that Obama's chances are still basically a house of cards--the house gets higher week by week, but one really bad jobs report (in the red, I mean) and who knows?

like, if you're worried bc ryan is a scary VP
a) no one votes for the VP
b) he's not a particularly strong VP and certainly not as scary as Palin in 2008
c) picking ryan afaict has basically written off florida as R state since dems can scaremonger old jews into thinking romney will take away gov programs and
d) romney can't win w/out florida

Florida. Oh, that's reassuring! :)

from optics pov romney picked ryan bc he doesn't believe he can win w/ conventional VP (and he has gotten himself confused and thinking ryan is not conventional). why believe romney could win more than romney apparently does?

I don't know, that's the thing, his weird bluffing strategy is psyching me out!

But that's where Romney's ineptitude and befuddlement come into play: he thinks he can't win, therefore he must be considered the favourite at this point.

what weird bluffing strategy? he's acting like a loser bc he is a loser

Like he is so confident that people will eat shit. I think his advisors have been reading pick up artist strategy manuals and applying them to the political realm

will PAY to eat shit

or maybe just reading the art of war

as filtered through a randian interpretation

counting on people voting aspirationally. people love a success story. what was obama? a lawyer from a broken home? romney is a successful businessman. nuff said

i think you're reading leftist critique as romney's own pov. this is all conjecture + conventional wisdom, but it scans okay to me: he's an ambitious dude who wants more than anything to be president. his advisors told him that at this stage in the game obama is going to stomp him. he needs a bold choice. right-wingers seem to love ryan (tho i'm skeptical about his actual reach w/ rl voters who don't post on FR or read blogs), and maybe it's a shocking enough pick (it's not) to take focus off bain + taxes. romney took their advice. he doesn't give a shit about ryan's economic beliefs, just about whether ryan can get voters to the polls (and maybe if he'll give romney political cover if they lose).

What are you going to do if McCain wins?

(and maybe if he'll give romney political cover if they lose).

ok, that does make sense. very cynical post-palin debacle entry in the playbook

Acc. to 538, McCain isn't gonna win. So I don't know what people are worried about. Apparently no one has come back from a deficit in the polls this big this late in the game? Except, like, the Giants beat the Patriots last year. So I guess all bets are off.

― Mordy, Monday, September 29, 2008 12:16 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark

LULZ

giants beat the patriots again & i bet that still won't have any impact on the race

<3 eli manning but ugh those games

This Slate article definitely makes the case the Ryan reinvigorates Romney's campaign a bit:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/08/ryan_vp_pick_romney_s_choice_makes_both_conservatives_and_democrats_happy_who_will_be_disappointed_.html

But is an unapologetic conservative as VP really going to help Romney get voters in potential swing states? Doubtful.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/11/a-risky-rationale-behind-romneys-choice-of-ryan/#more-33035

Evidently, it did not do that. The ability to perform an honest self-assessment is rare for all of us. Mr. Romney, in making this outlook, may have been aided by his background in seeking to turn around distressed companies...

Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already. But Mr. Romney, the turnaround artist, decided that he needed to turn around his own campaign.

Also, let's remember that the way Romney profitably turned around companies was by liquidating their assets, bleeding them dry, and then leaving them to die while he made off with the loot. Maybe he picked Ryan because he knew it would turn on hardcore right-wingers who would fill his coffers w/ plunder and then in the dust + smoke of a losing campaign and staggering shocked party, he'll slip out the back door.

were they kidding with that music when he came out or what?! sounds like something off Team America.

Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

Also this will likely make you feel better: http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/106035/picking-ryan-isnt-bold-its-highly-risk-averse

i think if nate had been around in 2004 we would've known

Mordy, I think you are giving people far too much credit, and assuming that they sit there carefully weighing out the presumed benefits and liabilities from respective candidates and then making an "informed choice"

The frothing levels of racism and ignorance throughout the country are not something that you are going to encounter taking an informal poll at your neighborhood synagogue

Plus of course people feel so beaten up by the economy that their minds revert to primitive psychological states. If you're looking for a father figure to step into the role of the king who will save us, and if you follow a messianic religion to begin with, then of course you will bypass rationality in favor of glomming onto everything romney advertises as being

Otherwise you are voting for the guy who hasn't done anything particularly dramatic during his campaign (killing Osama bin Laden was no D-Day or Super Bowl moment... among other things it was too "elitist" and dry of an operation, not to mention anti-climactic, for people to properly rally behind in a ticker-tape parade kind of way)

People are looking for boldness and dramatic sweeping acts. There's certainly a lot of stuff I resent about what Obama has done or failed to do, but he is too dignified to make the sort of crass gestures or pander in the way that Romney-Ryan will over the next several weeks. Hence my fear

I think crass, pandering gestures are basically outside the very limited supply of social skills Romney has managed to acquire for this campaign. Really don't see him being able to pull it off.

del, turn your attention to something more important, like finding me a place where I can watch the World Series online now that MLB caught on to Chanfeed.

also, if they get elected, the Dems can just block everything REALLY awful like they always do, riiiiight?

lol, god willing

also: http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/baseball.html

have you looked at the polls?

romney is not popular. who likes a success story when it begins with the person being already rich?

Killing Osama bin Laden was bold, decisive, + momentous. And Obama is crass as any politician, he's just a talented politician. Romney is really bad at being a politician. Ppl on both sides of political spectrum intuitively grasp that he's an empty suit - that's why he had to pick Ryan, to signal to the right-wing that he is really one of them and not just an opportunist.

I don't know, guys. In the past 12 hours or so I have somehow managed to convince myself that Romney-Ryan are going to win.

I think that ever since Reagan people haven eaten up a many times-over distorted version of the Horatio Alger myth. Obama is certainly savvy and yes i supposed even crass in given moments, but he will never garner the popular appeal of a Romney. Because. Populism is the reverse of what it was 100 or so years ago due to somewhere during the Reagan years the democrats and their sympathizers adopting an increasingly quietistic attitude, while somehow the right have become increasingly cynical w/r/t their media presence, increasingly not ashamed to be shrill, increasingly not embarrassed to play to the lowest common denominator

Clinton was able to take office mostly b/c he ended up running against two successive candidates who were severely charisma-impaired. clinton was ridiculously charismatic. whatever mojo obama enjoys is actually lost in the present climate. people want to look up to someone who will repeat a bootstraps mythos, "all is well with capitalism in its present form" a la romney. they don't want to hear about compromise or reality in any of its forms. hearing the keywords "prosperity" is enough. that sounds like a painfully simplistic analysis, and granted i am a painfully simplistic unnuanced guy, but i know of what i speak of. president romney is a given. the real question is survival strategies three or four years down the road

I think you're overreacting just a bit here. If people responded to rich candidates that way, we'd have had a President Steve Forbes by now. Romney is hardly a Horatio Alger story,

Romney and his people know how to couch the mythology in the right terms. and romney has the unrelenting ambition. and looks "presidential". forbes and others didn't have that going for them

of course he is far from a horatio alger story but he knows how to present his story in a way that eliminates any ignoble details

I dunno. I was pretty convinced Romney was going to lose as of yesterday, and Ryan doesn't seem to me the kind of VP pick who's going to move the needle. It's possible the economy could fall in the toilet between now and November, but it seems more likely to me that it's going to continue slowly gaining steam, housing prices will slowly tick up, etc. Things are better now that they were a year ago. I think most voters probably feel like the economy is moving in the right direction, if a bit more slowly than they'd like.

i hope so. and granted i am being somewhat trolly. but i honestly got scared today b/c i think that as horrible as ryan is there is a majority of ppl who would turn out to the polls who don't care or genuinely are into him. so i am scared and genuinely disheartened by romney's bluff or whatever it is. if he had picked a less obnoxious person then i would feel like there was hope for this country.

it's just such a "fuck you", i don't even know how to read it otherwise. :(

romney believes in nothing including giving u a fuck you

Romney basically had no choice. Ryan isn't going to boost his appeal at all, but I could see a Pawlenty or Portman actually driving it down further.

of course he is far from a horatio alger story but he knows how to present his story in a way that eliminates any ignoble details

― dell (del), Saturday, August 11, 2012 8:53 PM Bookmark

Have you seen this guy? Are we talking about the same Mitt Romney? He sucks at presenting his story in a way that eliminates any ignoble details - - - hence this entire tax kerfluffle. He doesn't know how to make stories go away, he doesn't know how to shift narratives, he doesn't know how to make lemonade out of lemons, anything.

Like, in my life I'm pretty well insulated from rich guys so maybe they all have this problem. The whole "lacking the 'common touch'" thing - I figured that was sorta bullshit, like, what exactly is a "common touch"? Well, whatever it is, Romney definitely doesn't have one. I honestly feel kind of bad for the guy at this point, he's so totally awkward and bad at everything that's involved in campaigning. At least Bush I sort of seemed like a genuine nerdy rich guy and Bush II like a genuine fratty jackass rich guy.

I can't figure out how he ever won elected office in Massachusetts. I did see one story that mentioned in his old campaigns he would talk about his Mormon faith in an effort to educate people about what his church is about and that they're not a creepy cult or whatever. Politics aside, I could imagine voting for that - even if it backfired, it seems like something a, you know, human being, who earnestly cares about certain things, would do. The effort to make himself a streamlined, doesn't-offend-anybody Republican has made him uneasy in his own skin.

Remember, this is the guy who won his nomination by being the presumptive fallback after everybody that any segment of the Republican electorate actually, actively liked was proven to not animate enough of that base. If he could actually excite people, he would have locked the thing up way back at the beginning.

xpost

yeah.

it's just so sad to me. because. as someone who was creeped out by having to say the pledge of allegiance as a kid i still feel like america is such an amazing country on so many levels. i complain about it all the time to myself and feel resentful, but it really is, and could be such an amazing inspirational place. i still feel grateful i was born here, even though i have very little respect for ongoing patriotic tropes

anway i guess the gwb years were just that demoralizing that it's tough to recover from that sense that everything is fucked forever

i dunno. maybe in 15-20 years or so things will finally turn around. or romney actually will win, and things will get dystopic so quickly for such a huge segment of the population that things will inevitably turn around.

it's tough to recover from that sense that everything is fucked forever

Don't bother. It is.

will never happen, obama is a better republican than anyone the GOP has turned out in 30 years

I can't figure out how he ever won elected office in Massachusetts.

Having watched him for a year now (I didn't pay too much attention to the Republican nomination in '08), completely agree; it's a mystery.

Remember, this is the guy who won his nomination by being the presumptive fallback after everybody that any segment of the Republican electorate actually, actively liked was proven to not animate enough of that base.

Yes, but more than that even, by absolutely eviscerating Gingrich and Santorum under an avalanche of money the minute they got close (not that doing so was especially difficult). I can't remember who said it--Wiegel, maybe--but I agree that there'll be an accepted view come out of the nomination process this year, that Romney had it locked up the whole way, that's just not true. Going into Michigan, there was a real chance that the whole thing was about to unravel on him.

In 2002, Republican Acting Governor Jane Swift's administration was plagued by political missteps and personal scandals.[149] Many Republicans viewed her as a liability and considered her unable to win a general election.[153] Prominent party figures – as well as the White House – wanted Romney to run for governor,[151][154] and the opportunity appealed to him for its national visibility.[155] One poll taken at that time showed Republicans favoring Romney over Swift by more than 50 percentage points.[156] On March 19, 2002, Swift announced she would not seek her party's nomination, and hours later Romney declared his candidacy,[156] for which he would face no opposition in the primary.[157] In June 2002, the Massachusetts Democratic Party challenged Romney's eligibility to run for governor, noting that state law required seven years' consecutive residence and that Romney had filed his state tax returns as a Utah resident in 1999 and 2000.[158][159] In response, the Massachusetts State Ballot Law Commission unanimously ruled that he had maintained sufficient financial and personal ties to Massachusetts and was therefore an eligible candidate.[160]

Romney again ran as a political outsider.[149] He played down his party affiliation,[152] saying he was "not a partisan Republican" but rather a "moderate" with "progressive" views.[161] He touted his private sector experience as qualifying him for addressing the state's fiscal problems[157] and stressed his ability to obtain federal funds for the state, giving his Olympics record as evidence.[141][144][162] He proposed to reorganize the state government while eliminating waste, fraud, and mismanagement.[152][163] The campaign was the first to use microtargeting techniques, in which fine-grained groups of voters were reached with narrowly tailored messaging.[164]

To overcome the image that had damaged him in the 1994 Senate race – that of a wealthy corporate buyout specialist out of touch with the needs of regular people – a series of "work days" were staged throughout the campaign, in which Romney performed blue-collar jobs such as herding cows and baling hay, unloading a fishing boat, and hauling garbage.[163][165][166] Television ads highlighting the effort, as well as one portraying his family in gushing terms and showing him shirtless,[165] received a poor public response and contributed to his being behind his Democratic opponent, Massachusetts State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, in polls as late as mid-October.[163][166] He rebounded with ads that accused O'Brien of being a failed watchdog for state pension fund losses in the stock market and that associated her husband, a former lobbyist, with the Enron scandal.[152][166] During the election he contributed over $6 million – a state record at the time – to the nearly $10 million raised for his campaign overall.[167][168] Romney was elected governor on November 5, 2002, with 50 percent of the vote to O'Brien's 45 percent.[

so you know he had to sling a lot of mud and spend a LOT of money to win by 5%.

to blindly vote for who ever is pro choice regardless of how their other goals with affect you is crazy to me.

I'd be really surprised if a pro choice pol did not line up with a huge number of my own political beliefs. Are there many pro-choice candidates who are anti-tax, pro-bombing Iran, pro-right wingers on the Supreme Court, etc?

Silver also lets his balls hang out

I plugged all these guys into my model and nate silver came up as best 58% of the time

romney xp

Are there many pro-choice candidates who are anti-tax, pro-bombing Iran, pro-right wingers on the Supreme Court, etc?

my parents! They justify their pro-choice stance as "conservative" – no one should tell her what to do with her body, Mom says.

so, don't vote for Alfred's parents

I wouldn't.

shit

But Repubs want to repeal Roe v. Wade? Have you told them about the Supreme Court?

fucked up that alfred never got to xxp

"cognitive dissonance" is a term they have trouble with

Are there many pro-choice candidates who are anti-tax, pro-bombing Iran, pro-right wingers on the Supreme Court, etc?

Dianne Feinstein

Geez, I just realized I got my words mixed up I meant the signs said Vote Pro Life, need more coffee.

I'm not saying abortion is not an issue of policy, but to blindly vote for who ever is pro life regardless of how their other goals with affect you is crazy to me

i think being pro life is pretty crazy period so

sorry "pro-"life""

This came in the mail, how the labors union reaches out to voters
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8481/8161517827_73790b3f53_z.jpg
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8485/8161515947_1ea72f33e9_z.jpg

I vote for whoever wants to do away with the penny, but keep dollar bills. Whatever other luggage that's attached I just live with.

otm

haha '(two days after colorado shooting tragedy)'

Our union has a problem of members voting for republicans because they think Obama will take their guns. And other moral issues.

lol "two days after colorado shooting tragedy"

xposts!

obama loves guns so much that he just doubles down after a massacre and loves guns even more than he did before

Sidenote: I Kinda wish Bruce would play "4th of July Asbury Park (Sandy)."

max the euthanasia dispensaaaaaaaaa

hes a better explainer of his process/results is basically what it comes down to imho

― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, November 6, 2012 4:45 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah he doesn't necessarily have 'better numbers' but he is good at getting people to understand what matters

― iatee, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 4:46 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm. (not to say the 2010 uk prediction wasn't embarrassingly bad.)

you can't expect his shit to work in a country run by a queen

Scared

There there gentle leprechaun.

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del I would like to reassure you that romney will definitely not win

Remove Bookmark from this Thread

does same

feeling p confident

LOCK THREAD.

nah it should be converted to a temple for republican schadenfreude

LDS temple?

Feeling cautiously optimistic about this.

Ha

This will surprise me.

I'm still scared, guys. Mitt + chloroform-soaked rag + Obama mask. Think about it.

I am beginning to become scared that Ryan/Rubio will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

Dude, of course they could win. If you're already thinking they WILL win you've already given up. Relax.

71.6% Hillary wins acc to Nate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

pretty good night for the senate

- went from joe lieberman to chris murphy in CT (moderate gain for good guys)
- went from richard lugar to joe donnelly in IN (big gain for good guys)
- went from olympia snowe to angus king in ME (probably a moderate gain for good guys)
- went from president scott brown to elizabeth warren in MA (big gain for good guys)
- went from ben nelson to deb fischer in NE (not so good but fuck ben nelson)

looks like the ND seat is still up in the air and i don't know much about the other intra-party seat changes

lol wrong thred

ben nelson was the final vote for Obamacare

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/politics/mitt-romney-black-lives-matter-protest/index.html

Way to finally start catchin up to where yr fucken dad was fifty years ago, there, Mitt.

no shock that so many Republican Congressmen were fratboys, since they routinely enjoy debasing themselves for others' approval