the most important election of your lifetime: 2012 american general election thread

I've been checking all over this morning, and I have to say that I find the conspiracy of silence surrounding the Romney masturbation story very troubling--especially in light of the documentation above.

obvs this kind of post modern approach has been employed before but im not sure its a tactic you really want to lean on, strange times http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/04/republicans-recite-dem-attack-lines----with-little-hope-of-success.php

Yeah I don't think so:

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's push for a Republican version of immigration legislation looks like the answer to the GOP's — namely Mitt Romney's — election-year prayers.

Rubio is the telegenic son of Cuban exiles and a potential vice presidential pick. He is pulling together a bill that would allow young illegal immigrants to remain in the United States but denies them citizenship.

... why do we need a bill for that

legalized apartheid/american Gastarbeiter = NAGL

sign of our times that a "moderate/thoughtful" Republican thinks that our immigration policies should resemble those of Dubai.

what a bizarrely written article

every paragraph has something about the what this bill will do for the political fortunes of the GOP, a) that's totally fucked up and b) they're all wrong anyway

there is nothing at all about what is even in this bill. the 2nd page is how furious the anti-immigrant part of the GOP is already. jesus the AP is garbage

haa oh it's a "work-in-progress"?

Opponents of Rubio's work-in-progress already have appealed to their rank-and-file members to contact the senator and express their opposition.

Numbers USA, which wants to reduce the number of legal and illegal immigrants, provided talking points to their nearly 1 million members.

"It is downright appalling that you are working on a DREAM Act amnesty. There is no difference between giving illegal aliens citizenship and giving them an amnesty. They would still be able to compete against unemployed Americans for jobs! You need to drop this plan presto!" the group said.

imagine the temptation they had to say "pronto" right there

hahaha I thought you were exaggerating

goole OTM. This is written by an apparatchik with a boner for Rubio.

lol here's all they say about the bill:

Rubio, who notably called on his party to tone down the anti-immigrant talk earlier this year, is working on a plan that would allow young illegal immigrants who came to the United States with their parents to apply for non-immigrant visas. They would be permitted to stay in the country to study or work, could obtain a driver's license but would not be able to vote. They later could apply for residency, but they would not have a special path to citizenship.

"Mommy and daddy have to go back home, but you can stay here and sweep floors."

uh so his plan is to basically call off the ICE dogs and tell "young" people to call a consulate? man who could have a problem with that.

Rubio — telegenic son

he's a chubby fuck

Maybe they all just need to read this. Or maybe 'Job Creating' isn't as big a priority as Immigrant Hating.

Immigrants Founded Half Of Top U.S. Start-Up Companies: Study
First Posted: 12/21/11 08:51 AM ET Updated: 12/21/11 10:17 PM ET

Immigrants founded or cofounded almost half of 50 top venture-backed companies in the United States, a new study shows, underscoring some of the high stakes in potential immigration reform.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/21/immigrants-startups_n_1162590.html

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/04/down-the-memory-hole-romney-calls-kris-kobach-just-a-supporter.php

ha maybe this is paving the way for rubio after all

what none of these articles ever mention is that anti-immigrant sentiment cuts up dems as much as it does the republicans.

"both candidates have a good bit of upside potential"

http://www.npr.org/2012/04/17/150815242/the-obama-romney-poll-a-palooza-whats-it-mean

"upside potential" – dear god in heaven I'm happy for Orwell's sake that he's dead.

"potential upside" wouldn't upset you, would it? Possibly redundant but a common sports term, so cozily at home in politocs.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/04/four-recent-national-polls-inc.php

Ron Brownstein:

Even with their modest variations, these four surveys paint a similar picture. Obama is largely holding the minority and college-educated white women who comprise two pillars of the modern Democratic base (along with young people.) But he is facing erosion among blue-collar white men and struggling to maintain even his modest 2008 support among the two swing quadrants in the white electorate: the college-plus white men and non-college white women.

For the moment, that division of allegiances is enough to provide Obama an overall advantage (he would lead slightly even in the Gallup track if the minority share of the vote was adjusted to its level in 2008). But it's not enough of an edge for him to breathe easy-and the fact that most of the white electorate is resisting him at least as much as it did in 2008 suggests he may never entirely get to such a comfortable place before November, even if he remains ahead overall

that's a pretty reasonable and informative article

xp

Brownstein's? He's one of the better political journalists.

him too but i meant the npr one

I skimmed the NPR and its basic point is exactly right, I thought: this is inevitably going to be close, and the idea that Obama is up by 9 (like in the CNN poll) is silly.

of course it's going to be close

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

pop vote margin doesn't mean anything much, of course

e.g. Nixon barely won it in '68 but took the electoral college rather handily

yup and the gop has a pretty basic advantage w/ the math, it usually doesn't matter but when it did, it did

national polls aren't measuring the electoral college, so what are we talking about

we're talking about an article summarizing the polls and what pollsters think about them which is: they mean not very much right now

right the polls that are way to early to be very meaningful are about the popular vote and the popular vote is almost always v close

"potential upside" wouldn't upset you, would it? Possibly redundant but a common sports term, so cozily at home in politocs.

― World Congress of Itch (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, April 18, 2012 10:06 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup

if the popular vote is always close then it's not always close u know

woah

I feel like I just took the red pill

When I said it's bound to be close, I meant electorally, not the popular vote--as in, this is going to be a close election period. I really do believe that. I know Romney has a ton of weaknesses, but Obama's approval has been bouncing around between 45-50 for months now; that seems fixed in place, and I can't see it producing anything but a close electoral election.

hell prob win by roughly how much he beat mccian, which is only close if you're basing it on some random idea of what close means

nooo way he'll win w/ that margin

more like bush 2004 I think

He could win by that much, but I don't see it as probable given that he's Reality Obama instead of Changemaker '08. His youthful acolytes, deep down, know he's an asshole.

It depends how deeply Team Mittens puts their hands in the woodchipper.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

every 4 years I start paying attention to stuff like this^ and it feels about the same as unlocking a new media experience for a JJ Abrams movie

"Deep Down, You Know He's an Asshole"

I look at that electoral map linked to above, and I think it would only take a mediocre jobs report or two to send most of those toss-up states Romney's way. But then you have to balance that with how weak/unliked Romney is at present.

there are not very many unemployed, undecided voters in ohio closely following month to month macroeconomic data

It depends how deeply Team Mittens puts their hands in the woodchipper.

I'm gonna guess up to at least the elbows

after which they will just attach a new pair of bajillion dollars Robomormon hands

there are not very many unemployed, undecided voters in ohio closely following month to month macroeconomic data

That's hardly what I meant. Mediocre jobs report = more people without jobs = what used to be a toss-up no longer a toss-up.

well I think the bigger thing is that they're just in a permanent state of 'toss-up' because we're concerned w/ what will happen in nov not what would happen if every state voted today. there is good reason to believe that peoples opinion of romney will sour after half a year of him on tv every day and there is some reason to believe that the economy will be a bit better in nov. those two trends are more important than any swing state poll can be today.

it's important to highlight how few people follow politics to the extent we do, even today the 'average american' knows very little about romney

they know he's a bajillionaire and a mormon