2012 republican presidential nominee IV: NEEDS MORE BOOING

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/pppoll-rubio-approval-rating-high-florida-he-would-not-help-vp

looks like his approval rating is a bit higher atm but its not the kinda situation where it'd be a slam dunk

florida might be a stretch either way tho, obama barely won it in a relative-landslide election

cursory googling reveals a bunch of "Rubio remains popular despite [x]" articles from 3-5 months ago

Any guesses on who Romney's running mate will be? He needs a Hail Mary here.

he needs the Virgin Mary

Lol

Is there a Latina Palin equivalent?

― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Thursday, 5 April 2012 16:49 (27 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

susana martinez but http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/after-palin-expect-a-more-intense-vetting-process/

I retract what I said months ago about Rubio. He means nothing to Romney's chances.

what makes you say that?

Ryan for VP is being floated by conservatives who think it will set him up for the presidency in 2016 and are excited by the idea of a Ryan administration. Romney will look at all the fringey budget ideas Ryan has put his name on and figure him as dead weight.

I can't imagine Ryan really increasing his chances either tbh

Pundits discuss The Hispanic Vote but have you seen Rubio's "numbers" among Hispanics? He's only beloved by my cubanos. As soon as the Dems air one of his anti-illegal speeches he's toast.

The Hispanic Vote isn't a monolith.

Couldn't you say though that they're toast to Hispanics nationally, but could at least carry Florida with Rubio?

Could be the first time since the old days that a Veep's chosen because he carry his home state.

yeah I wouldn't be surprised if
a. rubio gets the vp pick
b. romney wins florida
c. it really didn't have anything to do w/ rubio

he CAN carry his state.

"rubio carry his state. he carry it here. he carry it there."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-romney-and-ryan-campaign-across-wisconsin-chemistry-and-talk-of-a-ticket/2012/04/04/gIQAB4sCvS_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

daniel larison thinks romney will pick rob portman

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2012/04/05/portman-is-still-the-most-likely-selection-for-vp/

but his political predictions are often way off

When you're behind 658 to 281, just change the rules!

Effort to change Texas to would change Texas primary to winner take all, benefit Santorum.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2012/04/05/effort_would_change_texas_prim.html

Effort would change Texas primary to winner take all, benefit Santorum.

there was a pretty good nyer piece on rubio's numbers & his slightly fractious hispanic support:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/01/09/120109fa_fact_auletta

if the Dems had brains they'd run clips from Rubio's Reagan Day speech, in which he happily called for eliminating Social Security benefits. It'll scare the viejos.

A reporter friend who's covered Rubio since his Florida legislature days says that Rubio is the slimiest, smoothest guy he's ever seen: no problem giving two contradictory speeches to two different audiences in one day.

Mitt winning DC primary w/ 3100 votes made me LOL.

Any Dem who "tactically" voted for Santorum fully deserves President Romney (or Obama).

Good Friday isn't part of Lent, btw, hi guys.

http://static.tvguide.com/MediaBin/Galleries/Editorial/091005/6_Scariest_Movies/carrie2.jpg

all votes are tactiful votes, god isn't watching

“We should never forget who we Americans are,” he said. “Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter. Of dreamers and of believers. Of men and women who took risks and made sacrifices because they wanted their children to live better off than themselves. And so, whether they came here on the Mayflower, on a slave ship, or on an airplane from Havana, we are all descendants of the men and women who built here the nation that saved the world.”

Okay just saying, one of these scenarios is not like the others.

oh ffs

"I sense great opportunity across the ocean, where I can work for no pay as a piece of property! The dream lives!"

loooooooooooooooooool

Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.
Every single one of us is the descendant of a go-getter.

at least we know what's on Rubio's playlist:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDi-Pph6UK4

also:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GW-m0MtRBX8

we are all descendants of the men and women who built here the nation that saved the world

Not sure the Native Americans would agree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7ec0VI4Yl0&ob=av3e

Not sure the Native Americans would agree.

At this point, how many self-identifying Native Americans in the United States don't have family trees that mix with colonists/immigrants/slaves?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oObPhHPvlwo

I really like this piece:

Deciphering Right-Wing Code: What Conservatives Are Really Saying When They Seem to Spew Nonsense

Which talks about how Santorum's run is free of actual facts, but not of actual content and messaging. The latter is the key bit, since just going after the dude on the fact that he's talking out of his ass won't matter shit since the folks he's trying to reach and worldview his campaign is trying to reinforce doesn't have shit to do with fact.

The thing to remember is this: Even though right-wing narratives are often factually wrong, they are absolutely never content-free. Stories like this are always about something. And the weirder and more factually challenged they sound to liberal ears, the more important it probably is for us to know what that something is. Too often, our obsession with the gobsmacking wrongness of these statements deafens us to clues to the right's current motives and intentions that are frequently lurking in these strange declarations.

^^^ totally agree with this. In the words of Homer Simpson, "Stupid like a fox!"

A piece on how, if they don't think Romney can win, bigger-name VP candidates may decline (so as not to have a Quayle/Palin problem in 2016):

http://prospect.org/article/has-republican-establishment-given-romney

Damn! The fun of watching the Republican hard right voters fleeing from Romney to such refuges as Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich is now waning to a distant memory. It is April and Romney has finally put this nomination in his pocket along with his hundreds of millions of dollars of pesonal wealth.

What a dreary election we now have facing us. Seven months of unrelieved Mitt v. Barack! (shudders)

(brightens) Say! Isn't that Wisconsin governor's recall election coming up in June?

I don't think rubio, ryan or portman have enough national klout to pass up a vp nom..romney is not going to lose by a landslide. if you're a career politician you don't pass up the chance ot be on national tv every day for half a year.

has anyone ever been the running mate on a losing ticket and gone on to win the presidency?

fdr

but in any case I don't think that's very telling...not very many people become president. but your capability to even run for the nom depends on being at least a semi-national player. a good chunk of people who have been 'in the mix' over the years were losing vp candidates. and even if romney only has a 30% chance at winning, you don't give up a 30% chance at being next-in-line-for-ruler-of-world unless you have something better to go home to.

i'd do it.

Romney, are you listening? gr8080 is available!

not enough baggage.

He shd steal some from the hotel he works at

romney is not going to lose by a landslide. if you're a career politician you don't pass up the chance ot be on national tv every day for half a year.

A landslide might be in the eye of the beholder, considering that a lot of republicans have this image of Obama as OMG Worst President Evah. If/when Romney loses the party may go way right (and/or way crazy) and being on the ticket, even as the one dragging him right, won't help anyone's chances in 2016.

Quayle and Palin were probably distractions (they had myriad liabilities beyond having lost an election) from what I think was the writer's main point: that losing stigmatizes, and if you're seriously aiming for the nomination in 2016, losing this time in the VP slot would be a liability. At least in this day and age--the days when Stevenson and Nixon were given second chances seem to be gone. Post-Nixon, the record for losing VP candidates is not good. Muskie lost in '72, Quayle in '00, Lieberman in '04, and Edwards in '08. Most, like Palin, didn't run. The only two to subsequently win the nomination were Dole in '96 (third try, and 20 years removed from his loss) and Mondale in '84 (who had also won one election). If Rubio or Christie or anyone else sees a chance to win, sure, he'd accept. But the writer's article is premised on the idea of not seeing that chance ("But, if we assume for a moment...").

it's too easy to make too much out of the size of sample sets we are working w/. quayle and lieberman were objectively shitty candidates. edwards was the lame white dude in a historic situation but his personal shit woulda taken him down regardless. dole and mondale lost their elections for reasons that had nothing to do w/ the loser-stink on them. did the primary-loser-stink prevent reagan from getting the nom? would *anyone* be talking about edwards in 2008 if he were just some ex-senator? no way. out of the billions (? who knows) of people who have lived in america, 43 people have become president. your odds are not very good. your odds of being president are higher if you have the nomination of a major party. your odds of getting the nomination of a major party are higher if you are a nationally-known figure. your odds of being a nationally-known figure are higher if you are picked as a vp for a ticket.