2012 republican presidential nominee IV: NEEDS MORE BOOING

Josh Marshall ‏ @joshtpm
Ohio def tightening in Mitts favor.

santorum is getting squeezed out of ohio you say

81% in and a slimmer difference of 6,000. Cincinnati will be interesting when it comes in.

intrade is still small enough that one person who is willin to waste a lot of money can make weird things happen.

84% and Santorum is leading by about 2,700

that's why I sorta want a buncha wall st firms to get into it, get their quants busy pricing rick santorum, hundreds of nate silvers working at once

I'm not looking at where the votes are coming from but that 81 to 84 trend isn't a good one

more than half of cuyahoga yet to report and romney has huge adv there, also another cleveland suburban county prob favorable to romney hasn't reported at all

medina county

anyone who disagrees w/ that can make 10x their money on intrade atm

i think a lot of the cities were last to come in - a lot of cleveland is still out - romney is winning those areas. john king reporting this right now & suggests he will prob get enough votes there to take the lead?
cnn has really been v good on covering these primaries.

Looks like Romney's won Ohio. He's a strategic genius--embarrasses himself for a couple of hours, ekes out another one, "wins" the night.

@jdickerson
The heels of the Santorum staffers just clicked out of this gym in OH at a quick pace like they know something...
8 minutes ago

romney is the guy who wins in the cities and santorum wins in the non-urban counties. as if there was any doubt, romney is the democrat of the republican primaries

Cleveland, Ohio - Though Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are locked in a tight race statewide, Romney appears on his way to winning more delegates at the Congressional district level.

Based on results at this hour, Romney is in line with claim 34 delegates to Santorum's 22, with the allocation of one delegate too close to call.

Santorum has been running strong in rural areas, with Romney claiming more urban areas.

A major reason is that Santorum is not on the ballot for delegates being awarded in three Congressional districts: the 6th, 9th and 13th districts.

Forty-eight Ohio delegates to the Republican National Convention will be determined by votes at the congressional level, with 15 other delegates being determined by the overall vote.

gdamn it i h8 u mittens

what's worst is how giddy he must be right now

To correct myself, obvious Romney doesn't win the night. But if he survives Ohio, he crawls forward in the right direction.

dennis kucinich about to lose his primary.. wow

rip big man

he still has his wife at least

Obama now unopposed in biggest-ears primary.

Everyone knew at the beginning of the night that Romney was going to come out of Ohio with more delegates. The percentage is important for momentum and perception among voters/party elders/etc.

dennis kucinich about to lose his primary.. wow

― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:02 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that was predictable, i think. he's up against a very popular representative who's been serving since the early 80s.

oh was it a redistricting thing? i hadn't been paying attention

romney now with 1k lead at 84.7%

oh was it a redistricting thing? i hadn't been paying attention

― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:10 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah. ohio lost 2 or 3 representatives and most of kucinich's district (around cleveland) was combined with much of kaptur's district (around toledo).

in this case, as in chicago etc., the primary is the general. i think the winner will face joe the "plumber" LOL

According to Sullivan, they're hovering around the margin (0.25%) where an automatic recount kicks in.

kaptur is reliably liberal amirite?

have you ever seen a cuter KAPTUR?

in this case, as in chicago etc., the primary is the general. i think the winner will face joe the "plumber" LOL

― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 11:13 PM (32 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ha amazing i would pay to see a plumber/kucinich debate rip

hey this horrible person isnt gonna be in congress any more http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/jean-schmidt-loses-house-seat-in-major-gop-primary-upset.php p cool

Wenstrup had challenged Schmidt from her right on such issues as the debt ceiling, pitching himself as a Washington outsider.

ha great. either an opportunist or a bigger crank

I figured they would have called this for Romney by now.

can't have people tuning out to go to bed finally can you?

Yeah, they're also pretty desperate to spin it in such a way that Santorum stays in and they can get another month out of this one.

called by msnbc

get the sense that if i super-right-winger runs on GOP ticket in schmidt's district, the seat might very well change parties.

kaptur is reliably liberal amirite?

― kurwa mać (Polish for "long life") (Eisbaer), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:22 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup.

she's in the progressive caucus. kind of feel like kucinich could've sat this one out and just joined air america or something, i dunno. whatever.

santorum is a zealot on a crusade, tho. i wonder how much actual reality it will take to grind the gross metric tonnage of that entire train to a halt.

I think, delegate-wise, this is pretty insurmountable for him. However, if Newt magically decides to drop out (not likely) and Santorum starts picking up all of those delegates that the Ging is siphoning off of him, he could play a role. That, of course, combined with doubling down on the Romneycare/Obamacare thing which, with the right soundbites, could rip into Romney's credibility and set up a convincing argument that the General Election needs to be one of CONTRASTS.

santorum is a zealot on a crusade, tho. i wonder how much actual reality it will take to grind the gross metric tonnage of that entire train to a halt.

― Spleen of Hearts (kingfish), Wednesday, March 7, 2012 1:34 AM (17 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

so what you're saying is that in a few months we'll have to clean up after several gross metric tons of santorum?

Should do wonders for the greenery

if Newt magically decides to drop out (not likely) and Santorum starts picking up all of those delegates that the Ging is siphoning off of him, he could play a role.

idk that more Gingrich supporters would go to Santorum than Romney. I know a lot of Gingrich's appeal is that he's a not-Romney, but another part of his appeal afaik is that he's a not-Santorum.

I don't agree with that. They see Gingrich as a straight-talking firebrand, and that's a lot of his appeal, but mostly because he's a straight-talking firebrand Conservative. His supporters don't see Romney as a Conservative, but they see Santorum as one. Romney's appeal is his business credentials (which neither Gingrich or Santorum have), his electability (which doesn't enter into it if you're a Gingrich supporter tbh), and *maybe* his status as a "Washington Outsider" by the fact that he's never actually held a position in DC, which obviously won't play into it with Gingrich or Santorum.

Really, Gingrich's only appeal is in the South, and they'll go with Santorum before they go out with a "Massachusetts Moderate".

One percent difference between out-and-out embarrassment and still-inevitable-by-default. Good job, Mitt.

a) Eh, he could have dropped a load more points and still done well, he got 35/56 of the delegates

on the other hand

b) Also his list of states that he's got a majority of the vote in has gone up from one (Nevada's 50.1% lol) to four. Though one of them is Virginia, where his only opponent, Ron Fucking Paul, took 40% of the vote (and 6.5% of the delegates)

as if there was any doubt, romney is the democrat of the republican primaries

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