Rolling UK Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

basically, you cant put off recessions, they've been happening for 300+ years! if you put them off you store them up for later. banks lend lend lend, contraction occurs, people get caught high and dry

Oh well then, fuck it, we've got to two more years to party

comparatively, i think this year will be very bad, but it will get worse after that before it improves

- Assuming an ILX thread four years ago could have prevented this, what could people have done to prevent this in the early 00s?

- given frank the success they deserved
- adopted 'hen fap' meme
- film threads

- rockism
- geezaesthetics

I mean, i'd love to hear an economic fundamental other than 2% inflation (your loaf of bread, train ticket, gas bill, petrol go up by 2% this year?) and low unemployment, but that seems to be it! perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?

- realized why 1974 is crucial here

- marcello carlin 'character'

perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?

This is the problem really, the economy of this country is over-reliant on the City, we don't make anything* we just shunt money around. This would never have happened under Becky Lucas.

*Not much good either if export markets slump as well.

So, really, that 'economic fundamentals are sound' looks exactly like bullshit

GORDON BROWN: It's all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low, when you have, as everybody acknowledges, rising food prices round the world and rising oil and commodity prices.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/politics_show/7202283.stm

It's all the more remarkable that black is generally white

TWO in every five employers plan redundancies over the next three months, according to an influential survey to be published tomorrow. It comes as two leading business groups warn of weak business confidence and a sharp slowdown in growth.

Retailers had been very downbeat about prospects for January following a poor December, with like-for-like sales rising only 0.3%. This week’s figures will come as a relief, but the BRC is likely to warn that any strength is likely to be temporary.

This will be the big fear if the warning of many redundancies from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development comes true. Its winter labour market outlook, also in conjunction with KPMG, is set to show that 38% of the more than 1,500 employers surveyed plan redundancies over the next three months, with a quarter intending to let go at least 10 employees.

Although it is normal for a proportion of employers to be planning redundancies, the latest figure is sharply up on the 17% number three months ago.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3340863.ece

and to think i took public service job last year 'just until something better comes along'.

"Everything is OK because unemployment is low" can never be a good barometer of anything. Things aren't OK because unemployment is low! Its the other way round. Unemployment is low when things are OK. More accurately - unemployment is low when future outlook suggests more people will be needed to do/make things/services. Obviously the future outlook for the economy is very poor - therefore people will be let go

Unless of course people go on long term incapacity benefit - in which case unemployment can carry on being as low for as long as you like

Recession claims first casualty

Unless of course people go on long term incapacity benefit - in which case unemployment can carry on being as low for as long as you like

-- laxalt, Monday, February 11, 2008 3:58 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Link

^^^ this. unemployment isn't low. people claiming JSA is comparatively low. depends how you slice and dice the figures innit.

How nice that the Times should include a detailed definition of the term "bankruptcy" in that Statto piece for the benefit of all those thrusting Thatcherkids who haven't got time to learn English. Still I suppose many thrusting Thatcherkids will know what the word means soon enough.

http://www.phill.co.uk/comedy/dadsarmy/da78.jpg

http://theliberati.net/quaequamblog/wp-content/comical_ali.jpg

how long till first "UNGRATEFUL IMMIGRANTS ABANDON UK: after taking advantage of our hospitality, mercenary poles and russians look to leave UK when going gets rough, proving they WERE only ever interested in our money" type stuff in the Daily Angry

It was in the Metro already this morning.

bah

(It actually was! Something about 'Poles abandon failing Britain')

looooooool

Looks like recession here is going to move much quicker than it has been arriving in the US

That "Poles leaving the UK story" was great, "Nowadays, the average British wage is only twice as high as the average Polish wage".

I'm still kind of amazed that thomas cook, woolworths and foxtons have staff

It's a shame Kazakhstan isn't in the EU, we'll have to wait until World Cup qualifying for that 'Borats leave sinking ship' headline.

I'm still kind of amazed that thomas cook, woolworths and foxtons have shops (with staff in them)

Foxtons have branches with fridges in them but I don't usually see much in the way of staff.

Aren't Foxtons Britain's most EVIL company? Although when I spoke to another estate agency dude, they were more critical of Foxtons for having 7:30am meetings, rather than the whole "ripping off innocent customers" thing.

Meanwhile in the real world where people aren't sitting around worrying about every dip and curve in the stock market...

Europe's second biggest holiday firm now says that bookings for both winter ski trips and summer beach breaks remain strong.

I'm not saying there's not going to be a recession, or a downturn, or whatever, I'm just saying it's not like we haven't been here before and, you know, we're still here. And things aren't so bad.

'Poles abandon failing Britain'

Fuck, that means the return of Australian barmaids and Sarf Ifrikan barmen :(

"Poles abandon failing Britain" - does that mean all our seaside piers will fall down? It's a disgrace.

Good article by Janice Turner in the Times about EVIL FOXTONS even if it does press the Our Children button a little too fervently.

im amazed they are still here when people can sort their own holidays out online

Europe's second biggest holiday firm now says that bookings for both winter ski trips and summer beach breaks remain strong.

Liverpool fans say this year is their year

I mean, who do you think that statement is actually intended for and what would you expect them to say? and even then, does it actually read that confidently to you? words like 'still' and 'remain' are pretty telling

No, I'm just bored of your doom and gloom.

Fair point. Though you maybe should expect a little of that on a thread called 'rolling UK economy into the shitbin thread'

the 'Rolling Street Style / Fashion Blog Thread' is quite cheery at the moment though, that is balancing things out somewhat

Is Thomas Cook a public company? If so they have an obligation to say things are going tits-up if they are going tits-up.

It's something of a red herring anyway as people won't stop booking holidays until things begin to bite, and they haven't bitten yet. And even then, holidays aren't the first thing people tighten their belts on unless they're actually made unemployed. I see no reason why holiday bookings wouldn't be holding up at this point in time (especially as this statement is retrospective anyway).

This is true, its more that im interested that their model survives when people can book things separately

Is Thomas Cook a public company? If so they have an obligation to say things are going tits-up if they are going tits-up

working a treat for alliance & leicester!

"england's second-largest widget retailer says customers abandoning its useless widgets in droves"

I believe Glen Campbell had a song about that, "Widget Alingment"

"Widget Alignment" even

And even then, holidays aren't the first thing people tighten their belts on unless they're actually made unemployed

Really?

i haven't been on holiday since 2005. this isn't really a money thing, more a being mental thing.

I'd say so - people tend to to value holidays very highly in this day and age. Your average family, if tightening the purse strings, is more likely to tighten them elsewhere so they can still afford a holiday ("we can wait for that new furniture?", "do we really need another TV?").

Of course, they may book cheaper holidays as well but Thomas Cook can still spin that as 'number of bookings remains high'.

(This is only true up to a point of course, but I don't think we've got to that point yet)

Unfortunately most families can't wait to pay those steeply escalating electricity, gas and council tax bills.

I aim for at least four holidays a year.

Thomas Cook can still spin that as 'number of bookings remains high'.

Is Thomas Cook a public company? If so they have an obligation to say things are going tits-up if they are going tits-up.

EXACTLY

in casa emergency break ice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK9doTm8CH8

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/866946/brexit-latest-updates-ons-data-wipes-490-billion-uk-wealth

Can someone please have a look at this post and thoroughly debunk it (or otherwise)? Pretty please. Yours, an economics idiot

http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/2994686/#Comment_2994686

Just looking at Wikipedia, the China-Australia deal took a decade, not 13 months, so that guy’s nuts

And the Walloons held firm against the EU-Canada agreement for a whole... two weeks, just looking at the google news headlines.

The old “throwing out easily disprovable ‘facts’ in a barrage because there’s no referee so just try and prove me wrong” school

guess the old 'we can be like singapore' line is p raving mad too

i dunno, a lot of Tories are into corporal punishment

I feel that in a normal year this type of thing might be bigger news.

BBC News - Interserve rescue plan prompts share collapse
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46505688

No mention of the half a million+ they paid their CEO in April. But at least the million shares they also gave her are now worth less so that's something?

shit-bin-manufacturing-relocating-to-eire

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/18/we-face-a-global-economic-crisis-and-no-one-knows-what-to-do-about-it

We know that an increase in the cost of borrowing in the UK, the eurozone and the US, which is what we are now witnessing, will do nothing to bring down prices.

Inflation is an affliction caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to a lesser but important extent by China’s difficulties with Covid after its vaccine development failures, which have caused repeated lockdowns and holdups at ports. In the UK, Brexit adds a further big twist because it has damaged trade and cut the number of available workers.

The justification for higher interest rates, then, must lie elsewhere, and central banks, to justify their spasm of action, argue they must go ahead to avert a wages spiral – one where pay exceeds inflation.

In Britain, this argument presumes that the average worker, to prevent a fall in personal living standards, will be able to negotiate a pay deal that beats the Bank of England’s latest forecast for peak inflation later this year of 11%.

When the government is expected to limit public sector pay rises to between 0% and 3% this year, that means private sector increases would have to be even higher – about 12% or 13% on average. These levels of pay rise are a fiction.

Oof

I literally did not believe this when it was first explained to me, but the UK effectively puts housing prices in the CPI for student loan interest, so anyone with a student loan is levered synthetic short housing as well needing to rent. It's shocking their TFR isn't 0. https://t.co/Z6tkux9mQA

— Quantian (@quantian1) August 3, 2022

this thread is key reading imo:

The Bank of England’s going to increase interest rates today. It may be by 0.25%. It could be by 0.5%. But the question is, why are they choosing to increase the price of money when we already have an inflation problem? A thread to explain…..

— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) August 4, 2022

it’s almost as if “cooling” (sunak) vs “stimulating” the economy (truss) is too simplistic a way to think about this quite grim challenge of profiteering, war and chronic underinvestment

Bump

negative growth in last 3 months blamed on... the extra bank holiday and not the fuckwittery of the truss government.

Christmas and a world cup in the next quarter though.

food inflation now running at 19%. not a typo.