Indefinite Detention? But I Have Soccer Practice at 4: U.S. Politics 2012

hmmm maybe they should regulate speculation then...?

ya I can't think of any other reason for gas to ever get expensive other than speculation

that's the cool thing about infinite resources like oil, they stay cheap forever (til speculators start fucking things up)

speculation plays a small role, supply/demand drives the price

I believe I read somewhere recently that the recent upticks in price at the pump are, in fact, NOT demand-driven but are the result of speculation, but I'm damned if I can find the link. If only there were some large assemblage of people - let's call them "journalists" - who might have the resources to look into such of thing and might have found it relevant to the news at hand.

Ah, here's one article, from Jan. 23:

#COVINGTON -- Gas prices continue to rise nationwide, despite declining oil prices and demand, but the rate of increase is slowing, according to a spokeswoman with AAA Auto Club South.

#The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.38, according to AAA. That's an increase of nearly 16 cents from a month ago and 27 cents from a year ago. In Georgia, the average price is $3.41 per gallon.

#"(The increase) is not specific to one state. We're seeing that nationwide. It's pretty common that prices increase after the first of the year," usually because the market rallies with optimism that the economy will improve, said AAA spokeswoman Jessica Brady. Another factor driving up prices of late is the threat from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to block oil shipments.

#Prices are not rising with the rapidity they did at the first of the year, when they jumped as much as 10 to 15 cents in one week, Brady said. But retail prices are still increasing, though oil prices have dropped and demand is the lowest it's been in a decade.

#"It's speculation, not the basic fundamentals of supply and demand," controlling prices at the pump, Brady said. "If that was the case, prices would be much lower. Demand is at a 10-year low. It's not having the effect it should on the market."

well yeah, if iran hadn't threatened to cut off oil to the EU last week, there wouldn't have been the jump in prices. but the broader rise in prices over the last decade is driven by demand increasing at a greater rate than supply, which is stagnating.

Demand is at a 10-year low. It's not having the effect it should on the market.

that would be true if oil was a U.S. market, but it's a global market. U.S. demand is at a 10-year low, but in the developing world continues to increase put pressure on stagnating global production, which sets the overall trend of rising prices.

can't imagine why the aaa club of the south would be biased on this issue zach, I'm pretty sure america is the only place w/ cars

ha ha

arg, totally butchered my last sentence there but it should read "but in the developing world demand continues to increase, put pressure on stagnating global production and sets the overall trend of rising prices."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/leicester/content/images/2006/10/19/dmu_head_in_hands_315x420.jpg

when i put that into google image search i initially typed "hand in heads", no joke. you all are too kind to put up with me

I'd be wary about "head in hands" too tbh

Two-part Clinton American Experience on PBS this week:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/clinton/

Tea Party Sue

http://i.imgur.com/x9VBR.jpg

Jumped the gun on the Clinton documentary--it's tonight and tomorrow night. From the department of stuff-you-can't-make-up: it's directed and written by a guy named Barak Goodman.

I posted the NYT's review in the Bill Clinton thread revived last night.

Thanks, will read. Really looking forward to this--it was 20 years ago, but I remember the Nixon American Experience as being excellent.

The Mississippi State House of Representatives has introduced a new Personhood Bill today, even though it got swatted down 58-42 in the general election in November.

House Concurrent Resolution 61: http://billstatus.ls.state.ms.us/2012/pdf/history/HC/HC0061.xml

xp: gas prices

Gasoline prices have pretty much fully decoupled from the oft quoted WTI/Cushing futures contract (which represents only supplies to the midcontinent) and more closely follow the worldwide Brent contract (which represents imports at both coasts). This graph is a bit old but gives an idea of the spread:

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/world-average-brent-and-wti-oil-prices.png

A few refiners in Oklahoma-Colorado-Missouri are benefiting from the spread, but for the most part, refiner margins haven't budged:

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/retail-gasoline-and-refiners-acquistion-cost.png

The recent spike in Brent is of course due to the EU boycott of Iran. China is getting the Iranian oil at a discount (to fill their growing strategic reserve) and EU refiners have had to bid against the US for West African etc. oil.

and our old friends on Wall Street are betting on oil securities.

yes alfred, nothing but ~conspiracies~ getting in between you and your suv

you would be the guy not to enjoy the Donald Sutherland part of JFK.

no need for conspiracies; do it all out in the open, we're busy w/ our iPads.

bread and circuits

Reading Eon by Greg Bear, not really knowing anything about it, and was surprised by the role Ralph Nader takes in it (first time I saw 'Naderite' I figured it was a coincidence). Like his imagined future where Nader brings down the USSR almost as much as the GOP's 'Reagan brought down the Evil Empire' account.

Top picture: gas prices since Feb. 2011. Bottom picture: graph that FOX News aired today

http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/countyfair/aaa-gasprices.jpg

http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/countyfair/fnc-an-20120220-gasprices.jpg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-to-propose-lowering-corporate-tax-rate-to-28-percent/2012/02/22/gIQA1sjdSR_story.html?hpid=z1

What could happen is they'll lower the rate but not get rid of the loopholes. The actual effective corporate tax rate right now is pretty low because of all of the deductions. But you folks know that.

Everything that's wrong with Ohio, politics, Republicans, the media, and Jay Leno, all in one handy story!

Ohio House Speaker William G. Batchelder said today he will not apologize for a joke made at a recent GOP event suggesting President Barack Obama should be jailed.

Batchelder, a Republican from Medina who leads the House of Representatives, made the comment Saturday at the Summit County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, according to the Washington Post.

Batchelder was introducing Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum when he cracked a joke about whether Obama, a Democrat, should be re-elected.

“The liberals are asking us to give Obama more time. And I think 25-to-life would be a good start,” said Batchelder, according to the Post.

Today, Democratic Rep. Vernon Sykes, of Akron, called on Batchelder to apologize immediately.

"Speaker Batchelder's recent comments are absolutely deplorable," Sykes said in a statement released this morning. "I would expect my longtime friend, colleague and the Speaker of the Ohio House to respect the office of the President of the United States regardless of party affiliation."

Batchelder refused to apologize for his comments over the weekend.

"While some are trying to twist a harmless joke into an opportunity to attack me, make no mistake that I have deep respect for the presidency and the integrity of the office, regardless who holds it," Batchelder said in a statement this afternoon.

"I will not apologize for the joke, but I will apologize to my friend and colleague who apparently considered it more than a joke."

The statement from Batchelder's office noted that late-night TV host Jay Leno recently made a similar joke.

Batchelder said he will refrain from repeating jokes from Leno and other comedians.

http://media.cleveland.com/obrien_impact/photo/9726205-small.jpg

That does sound like a Leno joke.

_______________

Lazy Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus read a report from 3rd Way, a moderate Dem group, and she's using it to blame liberals for all of the elections Dems have lost since 1972.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrates-must-chase-independents-to-win/2012/02/21/gIQA74p3RR_story.html?hpid=z3

a guy who looks like his own caricature

xp

trying to figure out if my folks/family know Vernon Sykes

It's not a Leno joke. It is however from a rightwong email circulating that claims it's a Leno joke.

Ruth Marcus is a pimple on the backside of journalism.

russ feingold has been named a co-chair of obama's re-election campaign

these "3rd way" moderate Dems are rather like conservatives in that they have the same answer for everything and for every circumstance (for the conservatives, it's no-tax-hikes-ever, and for the 3rd way lot it's "dirty smelly hippie libs won't make it with 'independents').

why the fuck do we continue to pay these people any mind?!?

cuz they outnumber us

yup

http://gawker.com/5887547/jon-stewart-cant-believe-the-republicans-crazy-predictions-for-obamas-second-term

http://blog.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2012/02/virginia-ndaa-nullification-bill-passes-senate-committee-8-4/#.T0Yh61R6PVQ.facebook

interesting development. but, the tenth amendment center? yuck!

odd poll from PPP asks americans of their impressions of the fifty states:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_022112.pdf

Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked
American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states. Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27). Only seven other states have netpositive
ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

54% see Hawaii positively and only 10% negatively, followed in the top ten by Colorado (44-9), Tennessee (48-14), South Dakota (42-8), Virginia (45-13), Montana (39-7), Alaska (46-17), Oregon (43-14), and North Carolina and Pennsylvania (each 40-11). Ten others are in positive territory by at least 21 points.

Women have a higher opinion of New York by 27 points more than men, Massachusetts by 22 points, Delaware and California by 16, New Hampshire by 15, Vermont and Illinois by 13, and Connecticut by 11, while men see North Dakota more favorably by 17 points, South Carolina by 15, Wyoming 14, Montana 13, and Iowa and South Dakota 10.

Democrats’ favorite states include Hawaii, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Colorado, and New York, and their least favorites are led by Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi. Republicans love Alaska and Texas, and absolutely hate California, followed distantly by Illinois and Massachusetts. So the greatest partisan gap is for California, which Democrats like 91 points more than Republicans do, followed by
Texas, which is favored more by Republicans by 82 points.

Black voters dislike 10 of the 14 Southern states.

forgive by bad pagination there

net favorability ratings:

http://motherjones.com/files/images/blog_states_favorable_0.jpg

WI at #12 and MN at #40 is hurting me in my heart

interesting development. but, the tenth amendment center? yuck!

I sympathize but, really, screw nullification, esp coming out of Virginia. Do they really want their capital burned down again?

I suspect that Hawaii's popularity has very little to do with its politics or its people.

haha new jersey

I suspect that Hawaii's popularity has very little to do with its politics or its people.

i have to assume the same goes for TN.

WI at #12 and MN at #40 is hurting me in my heart

I don't even understand how this happened

one explanation could be that conservatives are more likely to incorporate their political views on a state in determining their opinion on the state so the whole wisconsin thing made conservatives 'like wisconsin'?

Alaska and Virginia placements perplex me, too.

I think there are a lot of opinion variables getting mixed up and the poll would seem like it had more logic to it if it were limited to a certain demographic