will tim tebow have a good nfl career?

defenses are going to scheme to him and shut down his current M.O. faster than they did to Michael Vick in 2001.

from there, he'll either A. work on his passing game and become an actual threat in the pocket, which will make scheming against him much more difficult, or B. he'll have plenty of time to learn the Tight End position

what would be awesome is if they give Orton some snaps too, say on 3rd and anything longer than 5

what would be awesome is if they give trade Orton some snaps too, say on 3rd and anything longer than 5 to a YMCA flag football squad

hey Vince Young was the greatest college player E-V-E-R fuiud

barry sanders is the best player in football history at any level

im just saying the "run, option, and occassional throw" plan could kinda work but I don't know if you can convert a 3rd and long that way

i guess what i'm saying is that i can imagine a successful system with a guy like Tebow taking snaps at QB but I would imagine you'd need a guy with a real arm and probably more talent up front

well, that and the fact that he was widely considered THE GREATEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER EVER. E-V-E-R

― Daniel, Esq., Friday, November 18, 2011 11:29 PM

______________________________

wait really?

― mon/ seeya/ chi 2.0 (k3vin k.), Saturday, November 19, 2011

maybe "widely considered" is too strong. but yes. see, e.g., tebow greatest college player ever (about 3,550,000 results in 0.10 seconds

raises a more general, and serious, question for me. how is it that tebow was so good in college, playing in a tough league where many players move on to the NFL, and yet he now looks so inept at the mechanics of the quarterback position in the NFL? put differently, why wouldn't those SEC defenses, dotted with pro-prospects, expose tebow's technical shortcomings almost as well as NFL defenses?

i don't think you grasp the disparity in quality b/w college and pro

i guess i don't, in this context. yes, if florida was playing east idaho state every week, i'd easily see the disparity. but the defenses he faced week-in, week-out -- e.g., LSU; Alabama; Florida State; Auburn -- these are overstuffed with players that he'll be seeing week-in, week-out in NFL defenses. that's the part i don't get.

1. regardless which program most players dont make the pros
2. its all abt the schemes man, the complexity

yeah, i guess. i just checked alabama's 2010 NFL draft picks; it's a good list, but wouldn't by itself result in a jawdropping defense. but that, of course, doesn't consider the other alamaba defensive starters that weren't coming-out in the 2010 draft.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/kerry_byrne/03/22/tim.tebow/index.html

welcome to the wonderful world of college qb performance not projecting to the pros

yeah, really. so, despite the overwhelming statistical evidence favoring tebow's college numbers over payton and eli manning, tim couch, jamarcus russell and matt stafford:

it tells us that NFL talent evaluators are out of their freaking minds

And yet NFL evaluators, for some reason, aren't sold on Tebow. Couch and Russell are two bona fide NFL busts, even though pro football talent evaluators couldn't usher them into the league fast enough. Yet these same talent evaluators harbor grave doubts about the ability of the greatest and most efficient passer in SEC history to pass the ball at the next level.

Other executives seem obsessed by the trivia over Tebow's mechanics, while overlooking the rather irrefutable fact that he dominated college football like no player in memory and despite the fact that he was, by any objective measure, a much better passer than Couch, Russell, Stafford, and either of the Manning brothers.

so again: tim tebow will be the standard against which all future NFL quarterbacks will be judged.

Tebow was, by any measure, a better player, a better quarterback and, yes, a better passer than any of these No. 1 picks

lol

I love this tim tebow narrative, it's so lol, love watching the highlights, it's like watching a poorly designed slingshot

one big thing imho is in college receivers get open like really open on nearly every play in a way thats rare in the pros, in the pros youre throwing the ball into these really small short lived windows, like yr receivers often not open yet when you release the ball, so accuracy timing and ability to read the defense are all super important in the pros in a way thats never really tested in college

accuracy like aaron rogers has. that's a really good point. it's a skill that wouldn't be as valuable in college if receivers are constantly getting open.

feel like ability to read the defense, recognize that a receiver is gonna be open in one second for one second, is even more important

http://www.allmoviezone.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Nicolas-Cage-Next-Movie-7.jpg

raises a more general, and serious, question for me. how is it that tebow was so good in college, playing in a tough league where many players move on to the NFL, and yet he now looks so inept at the mechanics of the quarterback position in the NFL? put differently, why wouldn't those SEC defenses, dotted with pro-prospects, expose tebow's technical shortcomings almost as well as NFL defenses?

― Daniel, Esq., Saturday, November 19, 2011 1:21 PM (37 minutes ago) Bookmark

you're overrating the SEC. it's of course a very competitive college conference, but it's still the college game which doesnt really compare with nfl football at all. when you're projecting guys you can't overrate 'performance' you just have to look at individual skills

one big thing imho is in college receivers get open like really open on nearly every play in a way thats rare in the pros, in the pros youre throwing the ball into these really small short lived windows, like yr receivers often not open yet when you release the ball, so accuracy timing and ability to read the defense are all super important in the pros in a way thats never really tested in college

― ice cr?m, Saturday, November 19, 2011 1:50 PM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark

well also this is why big-time arm strength is a needed attribute for an elite QB. you need to fucking drive the ball to consistently fit into those tight windows. tebow's avg arm strength + slow delivery is one of the worst possible combinations for making decisive nfl throws

yeah u basically have to have all the stuff to be successful in the big leagues

all fair points. i don't watch enough college football to really know. it just seemed to me that SEC defenses are mostly composed of players that end up in the NFL.

not mostly

certainly a higher incidence of players that go onto the pros, but still most of them dont get there

yeah, you're right, i now see that.

why is tebow's arm so weak - he's a big guy right? how come vick can outthrow him?

and #1 QB picks have, on average, been pretty successful, no?

it also can not be overstated how much simpler the college game is, they have limited time to practice, the coaches arent as good, and most of the players arent smart enough to deal w/the complexity of the pro game

why is tebow's arm so weak - he's a big guy right? how come vick can outthrow him?

― tracy mcgr8080 (dayo), Saturday, November 19, 2011 2:13 PM (1 minute ago)

ime with sports there's not nearly a direct correlation between like, size and 'power' (whatever power means to a particular sport) - it has much more to do with mechanics

tebows delivery is hella ugly

it's so lol, love that a starting QB has that throw, hes trolling the NFL so hard

i mean other than brute strength like blocking in football or something, i'm talking about like, throwing a ball far, hitting a tennis ball hard, etc

shooting deep jumpshots

why is tebow's arm so weak - he's a big guy right? how come vick can outthrow him?

― tracy mcgr8080 (dayo), Saturday, November 19, 2011 2:13 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

i cant really claim to understand it tbh, but its clearly not about having big biceps or anything like that. some guys actually do improve their arm strength when they get into the nfl, so, i dunno

i mean other than brute strength like blocking in football or something, i'm talking about like, throwing a ball far, hitting a tennis ball hard, etc

― mon/ seeya/ chi 2.0 (k3vin k.), Saturday, November 19, 2011 2:20 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark

what about rafa's One Huge Arm

thats not for uh tennis

there was a malcolm gladwell article on why predicting nfl success for college qbs is particularly hard and it mostly comes down to time and the quality of the defense:

It had always been hard to predict how a college quarterback would fare in the pros. The professional game was, simply, faster and more complicated. With the advent of the spread, though, the correspondence between the two levels of play had broken down almost entirely. N.F.L. teams don’t run the spread. They can’t. The defenders in the pros are so much faster than their college counterparts that they would shoot through those big gaps in the offensive line and flatten the quarterback. In the N.F.L., the offensive line is bunched closely together. Daniel wouldn’t have five receivers. Most of the time, he’d have just three or four. He wouldn’t have the luxury of standing seven yards behind the center, planting his feet, and knowing instantly where to throw. He’d have to crouch right behind the center, take the snap directly, and run backward before planting his feet to throw. The onrushing defenders wouldn’t be seven yards away. They would be all around him, from the start. The defense would no longer have to show its hand, because the field would not be so spread out. It could now disguise its intentions.

there was another article - michael lewis, I think? - or at least lewis-esque about the fact that there really just aren't that many opportunities to prove yourself as a pro qb. a handful of new people a year get the chance to even start, and far far fewer get alex smith-like opportunities.

ive always found that gladwell article to be specious when it came to the football stuff

agreed, like this

The defenders in the pros are so much faster than their college counterparts that they would shoot through those big gaps in the offensive line and flatten the quarterback.

idgi do players get faster when they get to the pros, like can you not play spread vs future pros in college

malcolm gladwell is amusing until he writes abt something you know anything abt

think in college every team has like a few fast people but in the NFL all the teams have all the fast people

well, line splits are definitely a lot smaller in the pros. you would have to be insane to use mike leach style splits in the nfl

the problem is that to tie it to the teaching thing, he has to forward an argument thats blatantly false:

But there’s a hitch: no one knows what a person with the potential to be a great teacher looks like. The school system has a quarterback problem.

The problem with picking quarterbacks is that Chase Daniel’s performance can’t be predicted. The job he’s being groomed for is so particular and specialized that there is no way to know who will succeed at it and who won’t.

that last line in particular is just, c'mon, no

we actually talked about this on here a few years ago btw:

Search and Destroy: FOOTBALL WRITING

it also can not be overstated how much simpler the college game is, they have limited time to practice, the coaches arent as good, and most of the players arent smart enough to deal w/the complexity of the pro game

you have definitely convinced me that the college game stinks.

except for the old UMiami teams. they could beat most NFL teams, i'm pretty sure. otherwise, shut down the NCAA.

btw, no joek, this college/pro discussion on this thread is excellent.

does nobody remember the michael lewis article? I feel like it was about matt cassel? or whoever else was brady's backup at the time

college is still generally more entertaining to watch because less-polished players lead to more interesting things happening xp

ive always found that gladwell article to be specious when it came to the football stuff

yeah im a p casual football fan (and dgaf abt college ball at all) but i think the broad strokes of his argument are p much true, and that college success isnt a great predictor of nfl success, although the way he ties it into the teaching things is p hamfisted and sorta distort the picture