2011 AL MVP

is FIP park adjusted? i forget. if not, then also home stadium.

FIP's kind of new to me, but I get the gist of it. I hope Rathman has a more compelling argument than that: Sabathia's is 2.88, Verlander's 2.99. So if we eliminate the other eight guys on the field (I guess the catcher needs to be there to catch the strikeouts), which technically would be some sport other than baseball, Sabathia's marginally better.

Well, what's the reason fWAR ranks Sabathia highest?

fWAR normalizes BABIP, bWAR doesn't

Because fWAR uses FIP which in a way makes no sense since FIP is more about what should happen then what did happen...

"is FIP park adjusted?"

I don't believe it is.

it's not

There's definitely an argument to be made for CC using FIP, depending on how seriously you want to apply that stat.

Like all stats, I'm sure FIP has its uses. I remember this guy in the '80s, Jose DeLeon, who would have good H/9 and K/BB ratios, and he'd never have anything to show for it. I imagine FIP would have been one more way to demonstrate that he was a much better pitcher than some of his standard metrics indicated. But if you're going to ignore a dozen different indicators that Verlander was a better pitcher than Sabathia, and hang your argument on something that is largely theoretical--who'd be better if there were no fielders around?--that, to me, is a textbook example of someone whose facility with new stats has left common sense behind. As to why Sabathia ranks ahead in fWAR, you're asking the wrong guy.

H/9 has nothing to do with FIP. FIP is really all about strikeouts, walks and home runs.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

I'll be very suspicious if Adrian Beltre takes this.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

duh

Obviously people voted should as opposed to will. Still disagree, but this is an argument that will never be resolved.

to me, since Cy & MVP have de facto equal visibility, a pitcher has to have an All-World season to earn both if a position player has a legit claim to MVP.

I basically agree with you, so I guess it comes down to not just how you view Verlander's season, but also Bautista's (and, of course, your interpretation of the award itself). I see Verlander as just a notch below All-World; but while I obviously view Bautista as a legitimate candidate, I don't view him as an exceptionally strong one.

whoops i forgot to vote for ellsbury

i voted crutis btw

...you know yourself that no one who hit .244 is going to draw much MVP support. Last year's Cy Young notwithstanding, I don't think the ground underneath has shifted that much, not yet. (And if I'm wrong, I'll just say "Wow" and adjust my thinking next time.)

I'm back to say...inconclusive verdict. Longoria didn't draw a whole lot of support--27 points--but he did finish 10th. I'm guessing it's very rare for a player who hits under .250 to crack the Top 10. I'd have to check that, but if my guess is right, Longoria is indeed more evidence that the ground underneath has shifted.

A guy asked James about Verlander's MVP today. I think this is a good, methodical approach to that question, the main point being that pitchers today are less qualified than 30 years ago:

It has always been clear (and remains clear now) that a BATTER has more control over the outcome of a batter/pitcher matchup than does a pitcher. It's a 50/50 game, but the pitcher's share is divided with the defense (that is, with the fielders), so that batting is more controlling than pitching, at bat to at bat.

This was off-set (and more than off-set), through the mid-1970s, by the fact that pitchers worked more batter-pitcher confrontations than did batters. In 1973, for example, Wilbur Wood faced 1,531 batters, Gaylord Perry faced 1,410, Nolan Ryan faced 1,355, Bill Singer faced 1,348, Bert Blyleven 1,321, Jim Colborn 1,287, Mickey Lolich 1,286, and 35 other pitchers faced more than 1,000 batters--while no matter faced a pitcher, in a season, typically more than 750 times in a season.

By 1983, however, only 18 pitchers faced 1,000 batters in the season. By 1993 only 12 did; by 2003 only one did (Roy Halladay). Last year Chris Carpenter led the majors in batters faced, with 996.

Since the leading pitchers in modern baseball only face about 25% more hitters than hitters face pitchers, and since the batter still has more control over the outcome of each event than the pitcher does, it is difficult, in modern baseball, for the pitcher to be the Most Valuable Player. Not saying that it CAN'T happen or doesn't happen, but it's difficult, and rare.

The questioner's objection wasn't that pitchers can't be the MVP, but that if you give it to a pitcher, you've shut out position players from the top two awards. His suggestion: a Cy Young, an equivalent award for position players, and an MVP for the whole league.