oh, that sounds interesting. i'll check it out xp
― Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 02:22 (seven years ago) link
The WAR thing about pitchers is interesting. I instinctively feel comapring a pitcher's hitting to the generic replacement hitter is unfair - they should realistically be compared to a generic replacement pitcher-hitter, so replacement level would be something like .130/.170/.180 or something. That way a great/terrible hitting pitcher still benefits/loses out, but not by comparison to bona fide hitters.
― Mark C, Monday, 5 September 2011 10:42 (seven years ago) link
I was thinking that the value added by having a hitter in that 9th spot must be huge if most teams just have a blackhole there but it occurred to me that a) even the best pitcher hitter only hits every 4-5 games and b) will only rarely hit throughout the entire game, so it's probably not as huge an impact as I was imagining.
― Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 14:41 (seven years ago) link
they should realistically be compared to a generic replacement pitcher-hitter
As a practical matter, I agree. I'm wondering if the sum of all the WARs on a team are supposed to add up to something that mirrors actual results--that if replacement value is deemed to be .450, then all the WARs, plus and minus, sum to however many wins the team is over .450 (=73 wins). I don't know, but that would explain why a pitcher's hitting can only be compared to a real hitter.
― clemenza, Monday, 5 September 2011 15:20 (seven years ago) link
I was wondering today if there's a stat that calculates ERA in light of the fact that the later into a game a pitcher goes, the more tired he gets. Something that could take poor managing out of the quantification - maybe something that would weight late innings pitched in a game more heavily than early innings (so that the first inning pitched w/out runs isn't worth the same as the eighth inning pitched w/out runs). I don't think ERA already does this... is there something that does?
― Mordy, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 04:28 (seven years ago) link
I believe there is a "close and late" stat. Not just late in the game, but with a further provision that the effort is of high-leverage. Let me poke around.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 6 September 2011 05:18 (seven years ago) link
It looks like ESPN used to have it available as a "situational" statistic, but it's not showing up for 2011 data.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 6 September 2011 05:23 (seven years ago) link
I'm not sure if this is what you mean, but Baseball Reference gives detailed inning-by-inning stats for every pitcher. They're not cumulative, though--you'd have to calculate that yourself. Verlander: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=verlaju01&year=2011&t=p. They also split a pitcher's line so you can see what he did in innings 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9. Verlander's ERA is 2.30 in 1-3, 2.60 in 4-6, and (smaller sample, but to me still amazing) 1.88 in 7-9. When they pull him out of a game in the 8th or 9th inning, they should bring him back in to close for himself.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 11:13 (seven years ago) link
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 21:10 (seven years ago) link
I found myself agreeing with a lot of this. There are too many weird year to year fluctuations in many players' defensive WAR numbers, I don't trust those numbers very much.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 21:13 (seven years ago) link
dumb question i should look up but cant be bothered
whatever offensive element used by WAR - wOBA or something.. does it account for each situational at bat? with enough plate appearances it should all wash out but does it make a differentiation between going 3/3 w/ 2 BB against John Lackey and the same line against Justin Verlander?
shouldnt pitching WAR be cross-relational to batting WAR faced that day and vice versa?
― sanskrit, Wednesday, 7 September 2011 02:15 (seven years ago) link
Just the fact that there are 2 different computations of WAR makes it clear that it's not "finished." xp
― incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 7 September 2011 02:18 (seven years ago) link
Mordy, this is what I meant re WAR 2 weeks ago; look at the first and scond tables here:
Halladay leads Lee in Pitching WAR (2nd list), but when their offensive and defensive contributions are added in (1st list), Halladay gets knocked down 0.1 and Lee is boosted 0.6.
― incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 18 September 2011 17:42 (seven years ago) link
find your regional meeting on the map here (you don't have to be a member to attend).
there are a few on Feb 2, like D.C. (which has Sean Forman and Tim Kurkjian).
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 23 January 2013 16:20 (six years ago) link
happy SABR Day, what a fine occasion for the board's two dumbest football fans to knock each other cold.
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 26 January 2013 13:36 (six years ago) link
once again, check your local here
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 25 January 2019 20:21 (six months ago) link