will Ichiro make it to 200 hits this year?

Most of his numbers are pretty bad this year.

No need to qualify it, he's had two, maybe three good seasons with the bat in his career, and BR's oWAR will back me up on this one.

I'm gonna be all Morbs-ian with this one and say that I couldn't care less if he achieves this meaningless counting stat. Getting 200 hits again would be cool, but that's like saying that it'll be cool to see Jeter get his 3000th hit even though he sucks now and shouldn't be playing (see also: Craig Biggio).

"No need to qualify it, he's had two, maybe three good seasons with the bat in his career, and BR's oWAR will back me up on this one."

Uh BR's oWAR doesn't have a single season where he's less than 3.1 oWAR. This is his first pretty bad year.

Seattle fan at Dodger/SABR game last night was badmouthing him: selfish, won't hit lower than first, has deteriorated defensively, etc.

xpost I was thinking more along the lines of "really good" ... he's usually in the 3-4 WAR range. That's plenty good enough to have a regular job, but it's not All-Star level.

If he's really finished as a .330/200 hits/year guy, then is he HOF-worthy? If you discount the intangibles (first Japanese everyday position player, his numbers from Japan) then he's basically a faster Kirby Puckett without the power. And Puckett's election is considered borderline by many people.

you're discounting the fact that ichiro brought a tremendous amount of defensive value to the table

Ichiro was a very good to great defensive player (depending on what metrics you look at), a great base stealer and frankly I don't see how you can discount his numbers from Japan (or at least understand that you can't judge his 10 really good/great years from age 27+ in the States against guys who started here when they were in their early 20s). And his offensive numbers overall are still pretty impressive (just not if you only focus on OPS+). This isn't Lou Brock we are talking about here. Was he the best player of his generation? Good lord, no. But he's been one of the consistently top 10-15 position players for a 10 year stretch starting from when he was 27 (and he probably would have been for 5 more years if he'd come here when he was 22). That's HOF-worthy in my opinion.

uh yeah wtf ichiro is a lock and rightfully so

i'm not sure about a lock. but forgetting this season - i'm not sure there's anyone else i'd rather have hitting leadoff over the last decade than Ichiro.

He is an obvious first ballot guy.

he's basically a faster Kirby Puckett without the power.

I know he hasn't hit that many homeruns over his career, but the guy can hit a homerun anytime he wants to. He has pretty good power tbh. He knocks them out all the time in BP. Obviously it's not his job to hit for power, but still.

In the business world, that is called a misallocation of resources.

I don't think he can hit a homer anytime he wants one when he isn't facing batting practice fastballs.

I think Alex's post above sums it up well: automatic first-ballot for me. (Mind you, I don't have a problem with Lou Brock, either.) I know this is a gooey, old-fashioned statement--the kind I was often taken to task for last year; not looking for another one of those dead-ends--but Ichiro's uniqueness goes above and beyond his numbers, which in and of themselves (minus this year) are pretty impressive.

you're discounting the fact that ichiro brought a tremendous amount of defensive value to the table

In my first couple of posts, I was only talking about his hitting. As for his HOF-case, defense counts for a lot, definitely.

and frankly I don't see how you can discount his numbers from Japan

Why not? Do we really know how to compare performances across different leagues on different continents? It's not as clear cut as you're making it out to be, especially considering that Ichiro is the *only* Japanese player to successfully make the jump to MLB -- by "success", I mean putting up numbers that were about as good as his numbers in Japan. In fact, Ichiro and Matsui were the only star-quality players to make the jump since '01, and Matsui's wasn't nearly as good as he was in Japan.

Stuff in his favour: 1) he was a really unique player for his time, and one of those special guys who "could have played in any era", 2) he was the only position player to "successfully" made the jump from Japan to MLB -- this just shows how much tougher it is to be a star in MLB and the fact that so many others players flamed out can't be held against Ichiro, it just shows how much better he was/is than all of them, 3) was top 20 in WAR nearly every year for ten years (although mostly around #6-15), led the league in 2004 and broke the all-time single season hit record, 4) was a great defender, which definitely helps him re: #3 -- he wasn't really among the league's best players in most years, but he was probably the best at his position during that time.

Not sure if this analogy will convince anyone, but:

Ichiro was famous in Japan for piling up hits and winning batting titles (7 in a row, flirted with .400 a couple of times). He comes to Seattle as 27-year-old and proceeds to pile up hits, win a couple of batting titles, set an important single-season record, and, if he continues to play for a couple of more years (not certain), get within range of 3,000 hits.

If Sadaharu Oh had come over to MLB as a 27-year-old in 1967 and continued to hit 40+ home runs a year for the next decade, won a couple of home run titles, broke Maris's single-season record, and gotten within range of 500 career homers, I don't think there's any doubt he'd have gone into the Hall of Fame, likely on the first ballot.

I should say, I'm not equating the value of singles to home runs (duh). Just trying to suggest a way to give Ichiro's Japanese years some context.

"Do we really know how to compare performances across different leagues on different continents?"

No, but we can't discount those years entirely and I think you have to look at his MLB years/stats in the context of his missing somewhere between 3-7 prime years because he was playing at a very level in what is probably the 2nd best league in the world.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

I was thinking about this today...because really, what else is there to think about?

If I were a manager, and I had to choose between five years of Ichiro at his best or five years of Bobby Abreu at his best, I'd probably take Abreu. Even accounting for defense and speed, I think Abreu would be worth more to the team. It'd be close--if nothing else, you'd have more flexibility with Abreu.

If I were a HOF voter seven or eight years from now and I had the same choice, I'd vote Ichiro in a second. That is probably an indefensible contradiction to a lot of people, but the Hall of Fame to me is not, strictly speaking, the Hall of Sabermetrics or Hall of WAR. 90-95% of the time it is. But there are exceptions, and Ichiro would be one of them for me.

"If I were a manager, and I had to choose between five years of Ichiro at his best or five years of Bobby Abreu at his best, I'd probably take Abreu."

I'd take Ichiro (and I'd make him play CF) in a second. The difference between their defense is bigger than their offense. Plus Ichiro's best years post-27 were better than anything Abreu achieved in his entire career.

the consistency of his excellence, and its longevity, make him a lock imo

come on, an uninterrupted decade of 200+ hits. dayum.

hi dere

http://www.thesportschronicle.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Hideki-Matsui-New-York-Yankees-2009-World-Series-ring.jpg

love that guy. even when he was with the yankees i loved him.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

2 for 24 in last 5 games

Ichiro Suzuki bolstered his chances at another 200-hit season by going 4-for-5 with a home run as the Seattle Mariners topped the visiting Kansas City Royals 7-3 on Friday.

Ichiro, vying to become the first major leaguer to reach the 200-hit plateau in 11 straight seasons, is 33 shy with 18 games remaining.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ZpHr5l0U0

no

― buzza

so what happens in two days? does Ichiro do the honourable thing?

Ask for a trade? I hope so.

The good news is, his Baseball Reference page is available to anyone who wants to sponsor it for a mere $1,585.

folks suggest that ichiro's speed is down, which is reason for his decline both offensively and defensively (how many infield hits does he have this year compared to other seasons?), but he still swiped 40 bags this year (to date) with only 7 caught. i wouldn't be surprised to see him make a bit of a comeback next year, since i figure at this point he's even more of a singles hitter than he was before and singles hitters like ichiro and derek jeter can obviously still put up the batting average even after decline years.

yeah I'm not going to belive Ichiro is done until he has a couple seasons like this
I mean really, even Jeets is having a good season and was way more likely to be "washed up"

Jeter's OPS + the last 2 seasons: 90, 98
Ichiro's: 112, 85

jeter's doing alright, he's basically having a good "singles hitter" year offensively and playing his usual shit D.

I just looked it up, I'm actually kinda stunned that Jeter's only had one good fielding year and that was 2009

I realize he's never been a good fielder (despite winning Golden Gloves for some reason) but I would at least have thought he would have been about average ten years ago

I think you missed the first decade of the "Jeter Can't Field" wars.

B-b-but what about when he dove into the stands for that foul ball or flipped the ball to the catcher and got Giambi out??!?!

yeah I only really had whatever ESPN told me back then

those awards are used as cake icing for superstars having good offensive seasons usually and we have to remember that a gold glove was once awarded to viagra spokesman/anti-steroid activist rafael palmeiro during a season in which he played something like 15-20 games at first base and the remainder at DH.

since the other thread is on ile

#Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is transitioning to the role of Special Assistant to the Chairman, effective today.

Read: https://t.co/HlZyrGdcVz pic.twitter.com/Gn4O2UB1Ee

— MarinersPR (@MarinersPR) May 3, 2018

I was hoping for half a season of relief work.

Now I don’t feel as bad about walking Ichiro last night

— Brett Anderson (@BAnderson3737) May 3, 2018

so he is effectively being retired, i guess? i know he has said he never wants to retire

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/22624561/ichiro-suzuki-return-seattle-mariners-resolve-internal-battle

I didn't know the stuff about the split with his father and the bleeding ulcer in 2009. I hope he can handle being taken off the field.

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/video/ichiro-s-strong-throw-c2523722983?t=t136-default-vtp

<3

just announced that this morning's game will be his last

dayum

xpost

that's an odd thing to do; but such is his way i guess.

lol he is older than me

Ichiro and Kikuchi. 😢 pic.twitter.com/oeE9vATr2b

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 21, 2019

My favorite Ichiro stat is that critics were prepared for his batting average to take a real hit when he played for the Mariners (he hit .353 across 9 seasons playing for the Blue Wave)... he finished his MLB rookie season hitting .350.

(my #2 favorite):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtImIqR5neU

hahaha