Irish politics discussion thread

strong zing

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0223/breaking36.html

Anyone willing to predict a result? Consensus seems to be FG not quite at a majority, but as in the last UK election it all depends on how close they can get. I expect the FF vote to be higher than the polls suggest.

Everyone is suspecting that the FF vote will be higher than polls suggest, but I have started wondering if this is just because people cannot get their heads around the idea of a once dominant party being completely flattened.

for what its worth I elsewhere posted this prediction yesterday*: http://westerneyes.org/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=22#p207
I am starting to think that FG will get more and FF less, but only because one of my brainy election obsessed friends has said so.

*note subtle plug for new internet message board

If Ming the Merciless does indeed get elected I'll laugh heartily.

maniacally would be more appropriate.

I'm in agreement abt FF- I've the gut feeling they'll be higher than all evidence suggests. But to estimate seats, impossible really.

Hoping FG need LAB. I think it's the likeliest outcome.

Also think FG/LAB is most likely but I think on balance I would actually prefer FG-only (with or without gene pool independents).

Don't think Labour in govt will make any significant difference in terms of policy - it's CON/DEM all over again except without so many clear manifesto promises to renege on (although mind you I'd put money on a reversal of the minimum wage cut as a pre-condition for Labour entering govt.) Plus Labour would be the biggest party in opposition and for the 1st time ever we'd have something like a right/left split in the Dail.

PLUS, presumably the next govt is going to oversee swingeing cuts, continued recession and eventual default on the deal and consequent humiliation. Why not let FG take those hits?

Ain't gonna happen but I'm just musing here.

d'you know, if we look at it from the point of view of who'll actually do what after the election, there's nothin to look fwd to in any outcome. As well to let ff stay in power, except that their priority continues to be the protection of the failed investor classes.

Sf getting in and vetoing the imf deal is the only vaguely interesting, if purely theoretical, govt manifesto.

xp - It's not quite CON/DEM redux in the sense that Labour are to the left of the Lib Dem leadership and presumably wouldn't be so happy to go along with FG's austerity mania.

not sure that austerity is negotiable, given the parameters.

Lucinda creighton, eh?

yah seems like labour as strong opposition leaders could really establish themselves instead of just being fgs scapegoats for a couple years

Exit poll:

According to the poll, Fine Gael is on 36.1 per cent, Labour is on 20.5 per cent, Fianna Fáil has slumped to 15.1 per cent, Sinn Féin is on 10.1 per cent, the Green Party were on 2.7 per cent and Independents and Others were on 15.5 per cent. The poll of 3,500 voters was carried out yesterday. The margin of error was 2.5 per cent.

Looks like FG/Lab coalition is the outcome.

Twitter is really struggling with this...

Ming is going to be elected!

Some classic posters from his pre-makeover heyday:

http://www.roscommonhistory.ie/Misc/PoliticalEphemera/mingflanagan/posters/ming12.jpg

http://www.roscommonhistory.ie/Misc/PoliticalEphemera/mingflanagan/posters/ming06.jpg

http://www.roscommonhistory.ie/Misc/PoliticalEphemera/mingflanagan/posters/mingposters.htm

A great political dynasty:

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6180/dv2ki.jpg

God bless all here

A grand night

A grand night indeed

fucking hell...ming.

The partiless

If Ming the Merciless does indeed get elected I'll laugh heartily.

Are you now laughing in an evil and maniacal way?

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Yes.

In case anyone has an hour or two to spare, a documentary on the great man:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADUUDjbqu3M

lol recounts...good to see my home county of Wicklow getting in on the game.

dick roche isnt bitter

The last minute of this is my favourite election-related thing ever:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRjjs2ZoU-M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tTu-h7zR5Q

what about this catalogue of 'distressed properties' then?

Any pref on whether lab do the right thing and lead a true opposition (and kill civil war politics) or sell out for meagre power and the right to get blame for it all in three years?

Or they attempt to actually do something about this country's problems rather than just sit on the opposition benches looking disappointed.

well yes i was framing it rather narrowly i admit.

Any govt that won't reconsider the bank guarantee can't really 'do' anything about the next 7 years, though?

Simplistic, i'm sure, but i'm only trying to initiate discussion here.

don't see any facial reaction in that vid of noonan? keeping in mind i know the man...

ah cmon there's a twitch

at what precise second?! he has quite a serious face if he's not smiling, family trait.

its more about him looking around like that, its in his eyes

well this is great craic. It's like the first day of second year so tis.

hup mayo

Enda kenny elected by the largest majority ever

Looks like ministerial roles will be heavily weighted towards dublin/east which, frankly, disappoints

At least ring is going to lose out. He's an odious little fucker.

what does the ILX jury think of politicians who begin every speech with cupla focal as Gaeilge?

Don't mind, unless it's Gerry, because his Irish is atrocious - bet no one can ever tell him though.

Oldest cabinet ever, and oldest collection of party leaders in Europe, probably - compare Kenny (60), Gilmore (56), Adams (62) and Martin (late 40s) to the sprightly Cameron, Clegg and Miliband youthquake.

Well I hate young people, so this at least is good news.

with dv there.

I have more faith in the leaders we have than the youthfront in the uk.

Delighted that quinn got a cabinet position.

Am i wrong to have been disappointed with the geographical spread of the cabinet? Not that i'm complaining about the lack of m ring mind.

I remember year ago when I did a politics degree, Dr Michael Gallagher was talking about cabinet formation and the criteria for choosing ministers. He mentioned how you might think that competence would be a key factor, but he went on to talk about how "spreading the mercs" is often more important, as people start moaning if there is no minister from their locality. And so they do.

I have a Minister and a Junior in my constituency, so I think the distribution is fine (and largely irrelevant).

Quinn thinks it's 'natural' that a woman should be minister for children because women have more experience of children...... showing his age, if nothing else. I bet there's a lot of formerly employed (male) building workers who are experiencing their children a lot at the moment, while their wives cling to their min. wage retail jobs.

Don't understand the respect he commands TBH - Ivan Yates said he was further to the right than most of the FG members of the rainbow cabinet. Re. geography, I don't get it at all, but that's probably the Dub thing: on the RTE Naked Election programme, the Hillery sprog with the outrageous sense of entitlement was told in no uncertain terms by someone in Clare that she wouldn't vote for him because he was a) FF and b) a Dub - yet no one here cares that Joe Costello is from Sligo, Lucinda from Mayo, Gilmore from Galway; as long as they've chosen the metrolops, they're welcome. Come to that, no one even notices that Varadkar is Irish-Indian: bet he wouldn't be elected as easily anywhere outside Dublin. And while we're congratulating ourselves, perhaps we ought to mention two openly gay TDS, elected without a murmur.

it's politics, not meritocracy.

I do think they should/could have found someone from the x no of govt td's in the whole of connacht to fit one of the positions, geography is not an irrelevant factor in these things.

xp

Gayness, indianess all admirably not an issue (ennis had an indian td in the dail before last iirc). Getting some clout west and north of the shannon is.

i'm pretty sure that quinn is our outstanding minister for finance of the modern era, as well as being a thoughtful and considered voice on educational issues when i've heard them lately.

Any number of people in the country would share his views on children/women, though it sounds like he was more likely defending his fairly sly gazumping of a decent seat himself? I dunno. Certainly it sounds a clumsy line to come out with, though i'm happier with bruton and even noonan in finance/enterprise than burton

I do think they should/could have found someone from the x no of govt td's in the whole of connacht to fit one of the positions

you are insatiable - Connaught has the Taoiseach and Junior Minister, which probably means it is more than represented at the top table, once its feeble population is taken into account.

And while we're congratulating ourselves, perhaps we ought to mention two openly gay TDS, elected without a murmur.

weren't these elected outside Dublin?

i think enda will be very wary of using any pull with the beady eyes of the dub meeja on him.

Population point is a fair one, tho direct comparison w/out taking into account geographical area would be extremely harsh. We dont all want to have the metro outside the door, tho the odd bus would be nice

wtf exceptional lending from central bank to six main banks exloded last month?

Anyone with info on this?

moriarty!

Will there be any fallout from this or is everyone all "lol 1990s"? Can't see this (or anything really) shifting Tipp North's love for the bould Michael Lowry.

fg back in power just in time

obviously, it'd be great to see hefty penalties- the 'lol 90's' reaction would really play into the hands of those who make damn well sure that political wrongdoing gets breathing space of 20 years to lessen the impact when outed.