a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/f9a2m/a_picture_i_took_yesterday_in_tahrir_square_cairo/

The problem with all entrenched regimes is that they become not only corrupt but very visibly so, hence the revolt against Ben Ali and clan in Tunisia. Today would have been Khaled Said's 29th birthday. He was beaten to death last summer for distributing video of police officers splitting up drugs amongst themselves that they had just confiscated. A photo of his smashed head in the morgue then quickly made the rounds. Egyptians are mindful that anti-Muslim Brotherhood, anti-islamist efforts by the regime have ended up leaving us with people like al-Zawahiri.

I have no idea about their sincerity but the Muslim Brotherhood has officially eschewed violence with few exceptions and apart from not being the regime, they also have a certain status in Egypt from their benevolent works, notably after the 1992 Cairo earthquake.

It seems to be that lots of these Islamic groups eschew violence officially, but have no problem with it as a means to an end. It's hard to imagine a peaceful strict, hardline Muslim government, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Another question: how are these despots different than those de facto despots in Russia? The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it. And god knows, the Russian government is every bit as brazen as these middle eastern governments.

But more popular amongst Russians me thinks, at least for the moment.

Just on the Muslim Brothers and elections and so on - the feeling in the academic literature is that Arab world Islamists win pluralities but not majorities in elections. So if post-transition elections in Egypt are run by proportional representation then we are not going to be looking at their having total power.

gunfire & explosions on the al jazeera live feed - http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

whats happening are the mummies attacking

But what's setting this off?

I heard the desire for a minimum wage is a big desire. Also 30 years under the same President is hardly a democratic regime, regardless of how much US officials kiss his ass.

these pictures are incredible - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-cairo

this is an interesting piece about how tunisia, egypt and yemen are not the same - http://www.chapatimystery.com/archives/homistan/days_of_anger.html - i'm not sure if i buy the denial of any link between them, but then i'm not the expert here...

When do the neocons swoop in and start taking credit for all this

Isn't there a strain of thinking that in these relatively diverse, relatively moderate countries, a Islamist government would spark a popular backlash when forced to actually govern? Turkey has managed a democratic coalition of hardliners and moderates, hasn't it?

Slightly tangential but moving:

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/parting-glance-lucas-mebrouk-dolega-32/

http://renesys.com/blog/

This whole thing has had me thinking about Algeria in 1991. I do hope it all ends better.

The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it.

the average russian thinks putin's awesome

think we're getting WAY ahead of ourselves with the speculation about what various post-despot govt's would look like in the Arab world

each of these states currently in flux (Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt) are ultimately at the mercy of their respective militaries and which way they swing (Yemen's trickier because the populace is so well armed, a civil war is more likely. But in Egypt it's gonna come down to whether or not the army + police are willing to engage in mass slaughter/repression)

Yes, Among The Believers. Should've clarified that I was talking about 79 not 09.

Also, there will be a struggle within the mb as to the direction it will take - being an organisation defined by its islamism, I would expect the more extreme elements to prevail, simply because if they do manage to co-opt mass support that's not going to be support for liberal democracy. Why would it be? People with that as a priority will be looking elsewhere.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

The question, then, is whether Egypt et al. are willing to go the full crackdown, and then if they do, whether they can survive the reaction. Unlike the relatively isolated and very hardline Iran, Egypt doesn't appear to have to same degree of control over, say, outside influences, let alone its own people.

I would be extremely skeptical of any US news source portraying these protesters as anti-American and/or Muslim extremists. Clearly the demands are all pretty in line with democratic ideals and the kind of shit the US should be publicly rooting for.

I was in Egypt in 2006 or so on a school trip and had plenty of first-hand experience with the people, tho yeah as an American tourist in the more populated areas. Egypt is overwhelmingly Muslim, and this was smack in the middle of the Iraq War and Bush's 2nd term, and everyone I talked to had nothing but good things to say about America and Americans, even in the midst of all that. The most extreme they got was saying "We love America, we love Americans, we just don't like Bush". Now this probably has a lot to do with the fact that tourism is THE business in Egypt, and why on Earth would you badmouth someone you were trying to sell trinkets to.

Nonetheless, yes there were extremists out in the desert and stories of anti-American sentiments in the rural areas, but the vast, vast majority of people in Cairo and Luxor and Aswan were all very friendly and very nice.

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

They're not directly anti-American, but isn't one complaint that Mubarak is too pro American? And certainly too pro-Israel? (Which can be read as pro-American?)

x-post The vast majority of people everywhere are very friendly and nice.

Indeed, yes. Supporting the coup that blocked the elections there was one of the West's great mistakes.

JiC - I think, yes, that people do reckon that if the Islamists had to govern then people would become disenchanted with them. Or maybe they would be really good at governing and everyone would love them. Or whatever.

I think Ergodan is not governing as part of a coalition, but I am open to correction on this.

I don't really think that Egypt's position wrt the US is really an issue here compared to domestic corruption, poverty, massive inequality etc.

Al Jazeera live feed is amazing btw

my last post was an XPost to something.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

putin's approval rating was higher than any leader on the planet. medvedev's is lower, but most russians know putin's in charge anyway.

obv there are plenty of malcontents in russia! but no the country as a whole really, really likes him. i kind of wrote about why here (putin doesn't actually get mentioned haha, but after crushing the oligarchs and all the tough talk to chechan/islamic terrorists, his status is a function of the same phenom.)

sorry total thread derail. i am actually ashamed of how little i know about the egypt/yemen/everywhereelse situation, even though i've been trying to follow it.

AKP/ergodan holds a majority in turkey, yes, but theyre hardly hardliners.

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

army opening fire

not good

oh shit

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

― Ismael Klata, Friday, January 28, 2011 6:52 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark

OTFM

Muslim Brotherhood, Baradei under house arrest

would guess that Mubarak's speech is gonna be of the "I am not going to step down, return to your homes, protestors will be shot"

variety

Clinton calling for Mubarak to restrain security forces and for protestors to be peaceful, respect freedom of information/expression. (real message: US not gonna save ya Mubarak)

i wouldn't be so sure. if mubarak survives, well, here we are

right

but he'll have to figure out how to survive on his own

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

Wow that's really fucking dumb. That's the sort of image that goes right round the world.

yeah that's already all over my facebook wall.

When do the neocons swoop in and start taking credit for all this

― strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Friday, January 28, 2011 10:41 AM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark

they already have:

http://greatsatansgirlfriend.blogspot.com/2011/01/aflame.html

military armored personnel carriers in Alexandria

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

I think that was just previously fired tear gas floating around...? there was a pretty distinct break in gunfire/noise while the prayers were going on and then as soon as they were over everything erupted again

not surprised about the neocons lol

what i saw/heard was that the police fired tear gas canisters into the prostrate protestors just before prayers ended, whereupon one of the protestors just threw them back at the police...?

Mubarak will no doubt barter with the State Department about getting the Ferdinand Marcos treatment.

AP saying the foreign ministry is occupied/under attack

dudes not to sound too bilderbergy here or anything, but the state department talk about supporting the rights of the egyptian people and the hopes and dreams of the protestors is crafted for your ears, not mubarak's

Which is why the statements pale beside the back channel shit that's no doubt going on.

The 2010 legislative elections vote-rigging has hurt the NDP and Mubarak's legitimacy pretty badly.

In the world of realpolitik those have always trumped everything. And an oligarchy is more likely to align with our interests than would a democracy atm, because current U.S. government functions as an oligarchy more than a democracy.

i think it's facile to say that an oligarchy will necessarily have the same or similar interests as another oligarchy. that would make geopolitics much simpler than it is.

also US foreign policy has never been subject to the sort of "democracy" that domestic politics have

but you'll get no argument from me re. our egypt policy being atrocious

Q: is "realpolitik" really just a 20th Century term for "the way empire has always functioned"?

we don't have an empire, i heard Bill Maher say so.

this is the thread where we self-congratulatorily affirm the fact of an american empire to one another

http://www.feelnumb.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/album-cover-rage-against-the-machine-evil-empire.jpg

woah lol huge soz

@sharifkouddous
State Dept official in 2010 email from Egypt to Hillary Clinton about Mubarak government: "They love you here"

https://twitter.com/sharifkouddous/status/711883543601942528

Ergodan below 50%

🔴#SONDAKİKA | Anadolu Ajansı'na göre Tayyip Erdoğan'ın oyu %50'nin altına düştü. (%49.99)

— ibrahim Haskoloğlu (@haskologlu) May 14, 2023

*Erdogan