i dont really blame you for not voting for soriano, his ops away from mini-coors is .596 and he's not fielding all that well. to be honest objectively i think bellhorn's the only choice, but is he even on the ballot? i'm not voting for him either way obviously. (belliard or soriano would prob be my choice at the moment)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 4 June 2004 22:01 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 4 June 2004 23:46 (nineteen years ago) link
Bellhorn, don't make me laugh. He's not even going to be a regular in 2 weeks (tho that's unfair). And Finley (always a fave of mine) just ISN'T better than Edmonds, who will have his usual numbers at year's end.
You guys are still paying too much heed to April/May.
The next 3 NL outfielders: Abreu, Giles, Finley.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 5 June 2004 13:30 (nineteen years ago) link
i hate your reasoning on pudge over posada unless he's a personal fave of yours.
finley plays in a hitter's park so he probably really hasn't been more valuable than edmonds overall.
― John (jdahlem), Saturday, 5 June 2004 14:42 (nineteen years ago) link
― boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 7 June 2004 12:39 (nineteen years ago) link
Pudge is better. He's statistically close to Posada the last year and a half, and is a greater lifetime player. Even when Joe Sheehan (a Yankee fan) of BP gave his ballot last week, he said of his Posada choice, "This feels like a homer pick." And if you went solely by 2003-4, Posada should be second to Javy Lopez.
2004 VORP
Finley 21.0Edmonds 19.0
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 7 June 2004 14:43 (nineteen years ago) link
― boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 7 June 2004 14:50 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 7 June 2004 15:24 (nineteen years ago) link
― boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 7 June 2004 15:40 (nineteen years ago) link
― vleeetrmx21 (Leee), Monday, 7 June 2004 16:36 (nineteen years ago) link
wtf??? posada's recently gone into a slump, but he'd been one of the top 3 offensive players in the league as a catcher. he's still top 5 in OBP and SLG. pudge is, i dunno, somewhere in the 20s. it's recently gotten a lot closer, but it's still not close.
"pudge is better."
do you honestly believe that? he hasn't had a better season for 4 years now. i bet he won't have a better season this year either.
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 7 June 2004 18:15 (nineteen years ago) link
Equiv Avg Equiv Runs VORP CS% Range
Posada .331 34.8 21.8 .353 6.57Pudge .317 38.4 25.7 .385 7.30
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 7 June 2004 18:45 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 7 June 2004 18:54 (nineteen years ago) link
it's still not close enough to warrant selecting pudge over posada on an objective basis - and you're picking those numbers after a major hot streak by pudge and a major slump by posada.
pudge's eqr is higher because he's played in more games, but you made that pick a week ago when the diff in eqa must've been 20-30 points. posada was at something like .295/.440/.605 not long ago. he's still hitting for considerably more power and getting on base considerably more - we'll see, but i don't think he's playing much over his head right now. pudge has never batted .349 over a season, not even in arlington - and he's not hitting for much power or walking, either. if his BA slips to a career average .306 and his walk and power rates still the same, he'll be sitting at .306/.345/.469. posada's a much better bet to sustain his success to date.
i don't quite understand how the eqa diff isn't a lot higher, not that 14 points isn't significant. as long as both guys are playing regularly i don't think "playing time" metrics (like eqr or vorp) should be given much heed for all-star selections, although it's obviously important for the MVP award.
so pick pudge if you want, but pls admit your particular biases are coloring that selection. jorge's better.
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 7 June 2004 19:27 (nineteen years ago) link
You do concede, at this moment, Pudge is a HOFer and Jorge is likely not? Similarly, there are too many good candidates ahead of Griffey in NL OF, but I can understand why his apparent renaissance has gotten him votes.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 7 June 2004 21:00 (nineteen years ago) link
as for javy: i'd think you'd make an exception for this "last year and a half" thing in the case of obvious fluke seasons, if rewarding actual talent levels is the idea.
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 7 June 2004 21:15 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 16:06 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 17:03 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 17:20 (nineteen years ago) link
Guillen is putting up numbers unlike he ever has (Comerica-inflated, yes?). Baseball history really begins in April 2004 for you?
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 17:53 (nineteen years ago) link
home: .722 OPSaway: 1.172 OPS
april: .840 OPSmay: 1.015 OPSjune to date: .948 OPS
tejada
home: .897 OPSaway: .772 OPS
april: .827 OPS may: .896 OPSjune2d: .607 OPS
in addition, tejada has a pathetic .600 OPS w/ RISP.
fielding is a wash.
does anyone have park factors for camden yards and comerica? seems like neither of them are hitter's parks based on this: http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001050.shtml
guillen isn't likely to get many votes, and nearly all of them will be performance-related, while tejada will get some based on name only. and guillen has consistently outperformed tejada so far in 2004, and it's the 2004 all-star game we're voting for, so i can't see how voting guillen over tejada is a crime.
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 18:32 (nineteen years ago) link
― bnw (bnw), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 19:00 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 19:44 (nineteen years ago) link
doc, i agree that judging whether or not a guy is playing over his head is important, and guillen undoubtedly is, but he's also trouncing everyone else in the AL right now, and i feel sorry for him cuz no one really cares. let me put it this way, i don't think i'd be doing anyone a disservice by voting for him. and if by some miracle he wins, it'll most likely be the sole all-star game of his career, while tejada's had at least one and will presumably have more. (now that i think about it though, tejada's probably been underrepresented himself due to stiff AL competition and his penchant for slumping first halfs and second half tears. so maybe i'll throw in one or two for miggie as well)
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 20:13 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 9 June 2004 20:56 (nineteen years ago) link
NL
1B J. Bagwell2B j. KentSS A. Everett3B S. RolenOF L. BerkmanOF C. BiggioOF S. Finley
AL
1B C. Delgado2B A. SorianoSS M. Young3B M. MoraOF V. GuerreroOF C. BeltranOF M. Ramirez
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:05 (nineteen years ago) link
NL B. AusmusAL I. Rodriguez
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:07 (nineteen years ago) link
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:09 (nineteen years ago) link
― earlnash, Friday, 11 June 2004 13:18 (nineteen years ago) link
I don't really know why I vote for Ausmus. A combination of ignorance and homerism, I'm sure.
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:34 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:36 (nineteen years ago) link
AL:First Base: D. Ortiz, BOS (write-in) Second Base: A. Soriano, TEXThird Base: H. Blalock, TEX Shortstop: M. Tejada, BAL Catcher: V. Martinez, CLE Outfielder: C. Beltran, KC Outfielder: V. Guerrero, ANA Outfielder: M. Ramirez, BOS
NL:First Base: A. Pujols, STL Second Base: J. Kent, HOU Third Base: M. Lowell, FLA Shortstop: J. Wilson, PIT Catcher: J. Estrada, ATL Outfielder: K. Griffey, Jr., CIN Outfielder: L. Berkman, HOU Outfielder: B. Bonds, SF
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 13:47 (nineteen years ago) link
VORP: ringer Piazza 25.9, Estrada 23.1, LoDuca 20.0, Barrett 18.2. If you give weight to last year, Kendall (13.5 in '04) enters the picture -- he's also caught about 150 innings more than anyone else the last year and a half.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 June 2004 14:19 (nineteen years ago) link
Anyone want to get on my jock re: picking Martinez over Posada?
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 14:23 (nineteen years ago) link
Piazza drops two fingers for the curve and Clemens nods in agreement. Clemens then grooves a 95 mph fastball that catches Piazza square in the sternum. Piazza charges the mound. Kent and Berkman run in from their positions while the rest of the players stand dumbfounded.
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 11 June 2004 14:25 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 14:41 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 11 June 2004 16:06 (nineteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 11 June 2004 16:10 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 June 2004 16:16 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 16:22 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 11 June 2004 16:36 (nineteen years ago) link
AL1B F Thomas2B A Soriano3B M MoraSS M YoungC I RodriguezRF V GuerreroLF M RamirezCF C Beltran
1B A Pujols2B J Kent3B S RolenSS J WilsonC M PiazzaLF B BondsRF B AbreuCF S Finley
― gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 11 June 2004 17:04 (nineteen years ago) link
you guys are nuts, though. but thanks, i'm not going to feel the slightest twinge of guilt for voting for guys like matsui and jeter now. (really, it's a factor i'd never considered but the bias yankees fans have for their players should more than be countered by the at-least equal bias EVERYONE ELSE has against them)
ps i can't get my head around all the sori-love
pps melvin mora ugh
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 11 June 2004 17:14 (nineteen years ago) link
And PLEASE name a more worthy 2Ber, because my Soriano pick was a "shit, there's no one else better, is there"? EXCEPT FOR JUAN URIBE (he just realizes).
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 17:38 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 11 June 2004 17:46 (nineteen years ago) link
ok maybe not. yeah, uribe is cooking, how did i not realize he had a .914 OPS until just now even though i KNOW i looked up his stats when i was looking for viable alternatives to soriano?
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 11 June 2004 18:06 (nineteen years ago) link
Boone, of course... 7-for-20 this week, a mere 48 points behind Sori in OPS, figures to equal him at year's end.
What yer overlooking, Gear, is the flukish nobodies DON'T WIN THE BALLOTING. Last one I recall is write-in Steve Garvey in 1974, and we know where that led -- the most overrated player of his era.
Like I said, so many of the positions are already foregone conclusions it's time for strategic voting. e.g., A-Rod and Rolen have it wrapped up, it feels just to bump up Mora and Lowell to runnerup. And Bonds doesn't need any more of my votes, so I'm voting Berkman-Abreu-Edmonds to get Sammy the hell outta there.
The ASG and HOF don't mean shit really, but look how any "who deserves" topic gets the love...
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 June 2004 18:13 (nineteen years ago) link
Ha! I FORGOT ABOUT A-ROD TOO!
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 11 June 2004 18:14 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 11 June 2004 18:15 (nineteen years ago) link
I don't even know anymore. http://i.imdb.com/Photos/CMSIcons/emoticons/basic2/sigh.gif
― Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 19:44 (nineteen years ago) link
Of course there's room for both - I took a potshot at one segment because a potshot was taken at another. (also: I'm in second place in a league that will pay ~$1200 for first, this is inherently less of a waste of time for me than calculating win shares.)
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 19:47 (nineteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 19:48 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 19:54 (nineteen years ago) link
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 19:58 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:02 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:05 (nineteen years ago) link
I respect the concept of the new(er) stats and way of looking at them, but I'll never consider them to be the most important factor in how I look at baseball. There are too many variables that no mathematical formula can ever account for.
ILM analogy time again, and this is just random thoughts - sometimes stat-geekery reminds me of people claim there's a specific formula or necessary quality to 'good' music, singer has to have a great voice, three power chords aren't enough, etc.. That focuses on one aspect, which can be great and enlightening and fun, but excludes all the other things that people love about music. I'll take the solo from "Boredom" over the guy who knows all his scales any day of the week, y'know?
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:17 (nineteen years ago) link
I AM a member; I said I'm not a sabermetrician -- unless being a consumer of the info counts. I touched no math in college, and was happy.
Again, there are arguments on meaningful issues all the time *within* SABR. And a huge portion of the membership, me included, blanch at the mention of a regression analysis.
And of course I'm not thinking about VORP all the time.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:28 (nineteen years ago) link
as i've said before, my intro to baseball more or less WAS statistics (sad as it is to say), so they are and always have been the most important factor in how i look at the game. but it's not just that: as a fan, the most important thing my team can do for me is win games - in general, i don't care how - and that's the case with most fans, so that's what these 100M dollar franchises are built to do. that's what the players are paid to do: you can talk about entertainment value and all that, but the bottom line is they're out there to win, because that's what people want and that's what makes people come. so understanding the hows and the whys of winning, and valuing it very highly, as it's ultimately the goal of (excuse me as i generalize) everyone involved - players, teams, and fans alike - is vastly important. and that, of course, is what sabermetrics is all about.
[spoken like a true yankee fan etc]
(correct me if i'm wrong milo, but you don't follow any specific team, right? that might explain the difference in perception here)
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:46 (nineteen years ago) link
I'd take him this yearover all your fancy boys,breaking out like zits
― Begs2Differ (Begs2Differ), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:51 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 20:58 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 21:02 (nineteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 21:29 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 21:33 (nineteen years ago) link
Winning is low on my list of reasons (never a very competitive person when it came to things I wasn't directly involved in).
My introduction to baseball was half historical - playing dice-based games of my own making, reading the old Baseball Encyclopedias, Field of Dreams, etc. - and playing rotisserie.
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 22:23 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 16 June 2004 23:01 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 June 2004 14:16 (nineteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 18 June 2004 14:27 (nineteen years ago) link
NL1B T. Helton, COL2B J. Kent, HOU3B S. Rolen, STLSS J. Wilson, PITC J. Kendall, PITOF L. Berkman, HOUOF B. Bonds, SFOF C. Wilson, PIT
― mookieproof (mookieproof), Friday, 18 June 2004 14:58 (nineteen years ago) link
― mookieproof (mookieproof), Friday, 18 June 2004 14:59 (nineteen years ago) link
*Stop Jeter (with Nomar)
*Stop Adam Everett (with Renteria)
I really can't quibble with Sheffield, God knows he's a better starting OF choice than Damon.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 20:22 (nineteen years ago) link
― Leeefuse 73 (Leee), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 20:23 (nineteen years ago) link
Godzilla and Ichiro vault over Sheffield ... late precincts from overseas.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 June 2004 13:54 (nineteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 29 June 2004 14:23 (nineteen years ago) link
Oh, don't worry. I just voted and Everett should be back on top.
― boldbury (boldbury), Tuesday, 29 June 2004 14:26 (nineteen years ago) link
If Renteria did win by 6, it would literally be the only election I've ever personally decided.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 June 2004 14:52 (nineteen years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Friday, 2 July 2004 04:29 (nineteen years ago) link