Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

The Chinese know what a shrink is now, and they would like to see one. imagine all the sports therapists they're going to need.

― El Tomboto, Tuesday, January 11, 2011 10:15 AM Bookmark

You read that New Yorker article too? I had almost the same thought on reading it.

There was an interesting Esquire article as well about the economic future of different countries. China won't always be on the top and Canada will do good in the long run. It's gotta be on the Esquire site right now.

There was an interesting Esquire article as well about the economic future of different countries. China won't always be on the top and Canada will do good in the long run. It's gotta be on the Esquire site right now.

sounds interesting, do you have a link for this? couldnt find it on the esquire homepage

So I actually feel better than I ever have about our economy

yeah, i feel better about it than i have in a while. i still like to find a key industry or niche that will drive the economy (e.g., leading the world in smart-car innovation; central contributions to green economy; revitalized steel-ish industry). but things look much better than they have in years, and it will look much better when job growth begins (always lags behind a recovery).

yeah, I think I was wrong about that Esquire article being from the most recent magazine

I wish I could feel more optimistic about things, but I'm still reading a lot of bad news in my industry. Still haven't had a week go by where I'm not reading or hearing about more architectural layoffs.

architecture is exactly the wrong industry from which to measure such things from, though. money's assigned in advance and projects can take forever. there's a kind of buffer, or delayed reaction. or so some architects i know say...

Oh, thats 100% on the money, its just hard to be optimistic when we're still buried in doom and gloom. I think six months from now it will be a brighter picture, but right now still a lot of unhappy people.

CL did you read that article in a physical issue of esquire? if so can you recall what month it was, or who was on the cover?

Well I checked the last 3 issues and it wasn't there. But then I remembered that it was a waiting room magazine. I don't remember what magazine. I think it even had China's flag on the cover and maybe the article had something like "why you don't have to worry" in title. And one part of the article talked about the economic future of a few different countries. And Canada was gonna do good in the long run because of all the natural resources. I think the article talked about farm land gonna do good for one country. I don't think I had time to read the whole article but I believe it was a newer magazine from the past few months.

I hope "all the natural resources" wasn't predicated on tar sands oil extraction-type development. That sort of mass-mining resource development is some serious, nasty enviro-disaster shit.

not to be debbie downer for the millionth time, but remember the crazy gas prices of 2006 to summer 2008, peaking at around $147/barrel and $4 gallon? The only reason they dropped was because of the global recession, which dropped demand. Even with a weak global "recovery", they're already back to $90/barrel and $3 gallon. The reason for the resurgent prices is that demand is picking back up, but supply (or conventional oil) has peaked. At best, prepare for a bunch of republicans droning on about an "all of the above" energy "policy" that basically amounts to devastating the environment for no particular reason, since the U.S. has less than 2% of the oil reserves in the world but use 25% of the oil, and exploiting the oil reserves that are in ANWR are projected by EIA to lower the price of gasoline by only a few cents by 2030 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/results.html). At worst, another spike in oil prices will push us toward another recession.

yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah

http://i52.tinypic.com/2a95m6a.jpg

luckily, the U.S. spent the last couple of years trying to make the best out of the financial downturn by putting millions of unemployed people to work building a new low-carbon infrastructure - weatherproofing homes, laying down Bus Rapid Transit and high-speed rail lines, implementing a price on carbon, renewable energy standards, promoting telework, etc - as an incredibly belated attempt to improve the resilience of a country that is utterly dependent on oil.

oops, i mean...uh, that didn't happen

http://i52.tinypic.com/2a95m6a.jpg

i will stop now, sry

putting millions of unemployed people to work building a new low-carbon infrastructure - weatherproofing homes, laying down Bus Rapid Transit and high-speed rail lines, implementing a price on carbon, renewable energy standards,

i believed obama when he talked this shit

:/

That shit sounds way too much like by-gawd commie socialism for any red-blooded American to ever believe in.

i believed obama when he talked this shit

i did too. And shit, I think Obama believed it too. He had Van Jones as his Green Jobs czar, Chu, Holdren, and so on. And occasionally he hints that he still "gets it". But energy/environmental policy, out of all policy realms, is the least conducive to compromise, because nature/physics does not give a damn that "politics is the art of what's possible". aaaaaaaaaarrrrgh

don't hate the player hate the game?

anyway, i was going to apologize for going off on a tangent on an economy thread but the inaction on climate/energy over the past 3 decades is going to have massive economic repercussions. people always talk about the costs of implementing a price on carbon without ever talking about the costs of NOT doing so, which are mindboggling. If a flood is clearly approaching your home and you could pay $50 to stop it or mitigate it, you do it. you don't quibble about whether the cost is $50 or $75 or $20, you just DO IT ASAP because if you don't your fucking house is ruined.

bllluuurgh

xpost

I sympathize with Obama and the tough position he's in, but if this is a game he's the closest thing to a DM we've got

last post before i pass out in a pile of puke in the gutter (again), but i'll go ahead and make an ass out of myself by making the prediction that anything approximating a global economic recovery will come paired with another sustained rise in the price of oil to the $150-160 range, followed by another recession that will be blamed primarily on other more obvious factors.

also, depressing sidebar: rising oil prices + climate change related extreme weather have already pushed food prices to similar levels that provoked food riots in a dozen countries in 2008 and 2009; the idiotic ethanol policy in the U.S. plus the almost certain future rise in oil prices are going to exacerbate the situation. Lester Brown has been on fire regarding this subject recently, and for the last decade.

http://i52.tinypic.com/5nmyw8.gif

positive signs, finally

It took less than three weeks for the new Republican Congressional leadership to claim credit for an apparent economic upturn.

An aide to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Brian Patrick, emailed reporters this morning:

THERE ARE THE JOBS: Republicans Prevent Massive Tax Increase, Economy Begins to Improve....

Ha

Republicans Prevent Massive Tax Increase

Pretty easy to prevent something when the only opposing party immediately caves to your position.

"massive" would have equaled returning rate a few percentage points to Clinton era

considering that the GOP credited the late 90s boom to Ronald Reagan, it's not at all surprising that they'd credit any improved economic news to their (1-month) majority. logic isn't the point here, it's all about message.

also, and w/t reading any of those Esquire articles, i actually think that Latin America may be the best bet for economic growth this decade -- China and India are going to hit some big walls soon (though I think India may end up faring better than China).

Gross Eliminates Government Debt From Pimco's Flagship Total Return Fund

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., eliminated government-related debt from his flagship fund last month as the U.S. projected record budget deficits.

Pimco’s $237 billion Total Return Fund last held zero government-related debt in January 2009. Gross had cut the holdings to 12 percent of assets in January, according to the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website. The fund’s net cash-and-equivalent position surged from 5 percent to 23 percent in February, the highest since May 2008.

Yields on Treasuries may be too low to sustain demand for U.S. government debt as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its second round of quantitative easing, Gross wrote in a monthly investment outlook posted on Pimco’s website on March 2. Gross mentioned that Pimco may be a buyer of Treasuries if yields rise to attractive levels.

Treasury yields are about 150 basis points too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal gross domestic product growth of 5 percent, he wrote in the commentary. The Fed is scheduled to complete purchases of $600 billion of Treasuries in June.

Gross in his February commentary urged investors to reduce holdings of Treasuries and U.K. gilts and buy higher-returning securities such as debt from emerging-market nations. “Old- fashioned gilts and Treasury bonds may need to be ‘exorcised’ from model portfolios and replaced with more attractive alternatives both from a risk and a reward standpoint,” Gross wrote.

the austerity mistake:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/austerity-games-here-and-there/

"The only way the economy can avoid taking a hit from government cuts is if private spending rises to fill the gap — and although you rarely hear the austerians admitting this, the only way that can happen is if people take on more debt. So we have the spectacle of a government that inveighs against the evils of debt pinning all its hopes on an assumption that over-indebted households will dig their hole even deeper."

let's cut taxes on the rich too

The only way the economy can avoid taking a hit from government cuts is if it get's it's spending fix from somewhere else.

No shit, Paul Krugman.

He's not writing a public diary revealing his newest economic revelations, he's trying to influence policymakers who don't (or refuse to) get it.

But sadly noone in the White House will advocate for his position

much love to william greider

http://www.thenation.com/article/159433/how-wall-street-crooks-get-out-jail-free?page=full

Except for occasional civil complaints by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the nation is left to face a disturbing spectacle: crime without punishment. Massive injuries were done to millions of people by reckless bankers, and vast wealth was destroyed by elaborate financial deceptions. Yet there are no culprits to be held responsible.

mistakes were made

didn't matt taibibi write the same article a few months ago?

matt taibbi vs. megan mccardle - fight!

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/video-taibbi-vs-mcardle-on-goldmans-responsibility-to-its-clients-20110516

whoah

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/17/business/17bank.html?_r=1

The New York attorney general has requested information and documents in recent weeks from three major Wall Street banks about their mortgage securities operations during the credit boom, indicating the existence of a new investigation into practices that contributed to billions in mortgage losses.

Officials in Eric T. Schneiderman’s office have also requested meetings with representatives from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly. The inquiry appears to be quite broad, with the attorney general’s requests for information covering many aspects of the banks’ loan pooling operations. They bundled thousands of home loans into securities that were then sold to investors such as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies.

Thank you New York state for doing what the feds have clearly declined to do, and it's about fucking time some one did it.

the new spitzer

"The government already has reached the limit of its borrowing authority, $14.3 trillion, and the Treasury is using a series of extraordinary maneuvers to meet financial obligations."

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2011/06/01/us_congress_debt_limit

but we can't raise taxes

we're not gonna budge here

http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201106010013

maybe a stretch, but her dress is awesome

crooked timber:

Eric Cantor:

“Everything is on the table,” he said. “As Republicans, we’re not going to go for tax increases. I think the administration gets that. But we’ve also put everything on the table as far as cuts.”

Imagine what the response would be if this were flipped around. Imagine a Democrat emitting the following, as a bold deficit reduction plan: “Everything is on the table … we’re not going to go for spending cuts. I think the Republicans get that. But we’ve also put everything on the table as far as tax hikes.” No one would say such a Bizarro Norquist thing, of course, because no one on the Democratic side is as bizarre as Norquist. But if someone did, it would be perfectly obvious the person saying this thing wasn’t concerned with deficit reduction. The idea that someone unwilling to contemplate spending cuts – anywhere – was a deficit hawk would not pass the laugh test. As Cantor’s statement does not.

disagree with the awful strategy proposed in the rest of the post, but that's pretty otm. saying "everything is on the table" while absolutely refusing to consider tax hikes is absurd, especially given that over the past century, the standard response to recessions has been tax hikes.

biggest Dow dip since last summer yesterday. Looks like I picked the right season to reduce my 401k contrib (so I can afford my upcoming rent hike and vacation)

and vast wealth was destroyedcreated by elaborate financial deceptions

rick ungar otm

http://blogs.forbes.com/rickungar/2011/06/01/how-our-largest-corporations-made-170-billion-during-great-recession-and-paid-no-taxes/

twelve of the nations largest Fortune 500 companies, while making $170 billion in profits during the period of The Great Recession, paid an effective tax rate of negative 1.5%

goldman subpoenaed

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/goldman-said-to-get-subpoena-from-manhattan-prosecutor-over-senate-report.html

that took fucking long enough

the last decade in terms of real wages was actually worse than the Great Depression

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/06/03/235709/depression-wages/

The increase in total private-sector wages, adjusted for inflation, from the start of 2001 has fallen far short of any 10-year period since World War II, according to Commerce Department data. In fact, if the data are to be believed, economy wide wage gains have even lagged those in the decade of the Great Depression (adjusted for deflation). Over the past decade, real private-sector wage growth has scraped bottom at 4%, just below the 5% increase from 1929 to 1939, government data show.

i think we should cut taxes and deregulate stuff