PECOTA is out

:-(

hitters, pitchers, notes

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NL All-Stars:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Cabrera
SS: Bill Hall
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Soriano

AL All-Stars:
C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
3B: A-Rod
SS: Jeter
RF: Vlad
CF: Sizemore
LF: ManRam
DH: Hafner

NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, Wright
AL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz

NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro
AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman

NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, Broxton
AL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan

Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.

Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!

5-year projected values:
Barry Zito, $34.05mn
Alfonso Soriano, $61.3
Joe Mauer, $150.775
Poo-holes, $153.6
Johan Santana, $96.65
A-Rod, $83.0
Grady Sizemore, $118.075
Barry Bonds, $10.775

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0
Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7
Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2
Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2

Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.

So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?

Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)

-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)

^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=190

YSI?

:`(

"Basically 80-82 seems like the absolute worst case scenario to me."

HAHAHA!

Also LOL:

Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird.
-- Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, January 16, 2007 7:41 AM (1 year ago)

and some!

Joe Kennedy, Swing, TOR:

40 G, 9 GS, 4.78 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

I think it is safe to say that he will underperform his 2008 PECOTA prediction.

Peavy: 212 IP, 223K, 1.13 WHIP, 2.98 ERA

Santana: 225 IP, 239K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.94 ERA

This would be a hell of a Cy Young battle -- the closest matchup in years!

Is Santana's league adjusted?

Yes -- he's listed as a Met.

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.

CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

looks mostly the same i guess

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west

strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.

Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:
http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/

supposedly pecota is out.. again.

supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.

who's your team again? (sorry)

how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?

i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.

a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.

my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.

I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.

Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.

I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.

When do the Fangraphs projections come out?

those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282

tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee

not impossible, imho!

ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

has the mets @ 80 wins!

noted last week

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

'tis out

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

go bucs

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings