ayo lets go phillies get me a fukkin tastykake

I think even the phillies fans (like me) think the 5 to 2 number is ridiculous

Another thing I'd be interested in doing is going back over every postseason since '69 and asking two questions: who among the playoff teams was favored to win, and who actually did win? If you eliminated the occasional year where there was no clear favorite, I'd be surprised if even half the favorites ultimately emerge as the WS winner. (I'm just guessing.) And a) it becomes even more a roll of the dice in the wild-card era, and b) all of that presupposes that you make the playoffs in the first place. Winning a World Series is really hard!

But you're right, probably everybody here realizes those odds are crazy.

uhhh you realize vegas sets odds to get action, not because they have an actual opinion?

Thanks for the clarification; I assume it's also meant for all the other people upthread who commented on the absurdity of those odds.

Clem, just to back up a bit I think perhaps you are underrating Oswalt's tenure with Houston in 2010. Take a look at some defense independent stats. He had a great YEAR, he was one of the top 15-20 pitchers in baseball (nb: I was his biggest cheerleader on ILB). Yes he was particularly great down the stretch. but take a deeper peak at his season with Houston outside of ERA and you may be surprised...

UNLESS you're going "retro-cool" for ERA like you did for RBIs earlier this year, and in that case, I am just gonna shrug.gif

xp yes it is, talking about odds is pointless unless you are gambling

Yes he was particularly great down the stretch. but take a deeper peak at his season with Houston outside of ERA and you may be surprised...

I have, and you're quite right; his H/9 and SO/BB with the Astros were very good last year. How about we split the difference between his four months with Houston and two with the Phillies, add a year for age, and say he'll have an ERA around 3.00 next year?

talking about odds is pointless unless you are gambling

And talking about the Academy Awards is pointless, unless you're a marketing executive--but we do, all the time. Most everything we argue about here is pointless. But it's fun, so we do.

i'm not a big gambler, but it seems to me that the odds have a lot more to do with popular conception than some realistic set of facts. like, phillies are probably a very hot bet right now because of this trade and so vegas responds appropriately by giving you far less payout for your bet.

Anyway, I'll admit that I misunderstood the initial origin of these 5:2 odds. I thought they were the opinion of a writer, or someone at ESPN--I didn't realize they were actual Vegas odds.

but you have to factor in the vig.. which at this stage must be pretty steep. perhaps a good 10% more which would wipe out insured profit. and to cad's point, it's largely pr blathering to churn up interest.

As soon as you start talking about the vig, I'm seeing Morrie the wig salesman getting his head bashed in by Jimmy the Gent.

Another thing I'd be interested in doing is going back over every postseason since '69 and asking two questions: who among the playoff teams was favored to win, and who actually did win?

How often does the team that won the most games in that season go on to win the WS? It's fairly rare (they show these numbers every year during the playoffs).

http://twitpic.com/2zekv3

(They showed the 2010 NLCS replay tonight fwiw)

it seems to me that the odds have a lot more to do with popular conception than some realistic set of facts. like, phillies are probably a very hot bet right now because of this trade and so vegas responds appropriately by giving you far less payout for your bet.

Yes, but this has to be balanced against offering too-favourable odds on the other teams, which a boomaker needs to avoid, at least before the betting has really started. Joe Posnanski is baffled the Royals are 125-1, for example. I'm baffled the Dodgers and their sexy new rotation are 30-1 when there's no guarantee the Rockies or Giants will be obviously better in 2011.

James put a new piece up yesterday called "Thirty-Three Rotations." I love the subtitle: "The 33 Greatest Starting Rotations of All-Time in Chronological Order, Apropos Nothing in Particular." The five most recent: '02 Braves, '01 Mariners, '01 A's, '97 Braves, '93 White Sox.

Domonic Brown bwoke his hand

Uh oh! Did he punch his children's grandfather in the face???

jkjk

Apparently he'll be back in like 3-6 weeks.

I'm so excited for new baseball btw -- I just got my MLB.tv package!

phils top pitching prospect Trevor May answering questions on Reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/oa934/iama_top_prospect_in_the_mlb_minor_league_system/

icymi

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29655920/philadelphia-phillies-retire-dick-allen-no-15-next-month

I am sorry about your loss in the election, @laurenboebert. Who knows what funny business was going on!?Anyhow, I know this must be a difficult time, and just keep in mind that you have someone right here to talk to (or whatever other kind of needs you may have right now). DM me?

— Lenny Dykstra (@LennyDykstra) November 9, 2022

"GET AMERICAN BACK ON TRACK"