Randy Moss' second stint in Minnesota is over after four games in which he averaged about 44 yards receiving per contest, assuming he appears on the waiver wire today. While we wrote soon after he was dealt that Moss couldn't solve Minnesota's offensive problems, not even the most pessimistic expectation suggested Moss would be done with the Vikings by November. And yet, here we are.The loss of a draft pick aside, from a tactical standpoint, it was easy to waive Moss because he really wasn't producing all that much. Our concern with the Vikings' offense was Brett http://images.chron.com/blogs/askacat/hatcat.JPG's struggles on intermediate-range passes, throws from 7-14 yards downfield (check the Green Bay tapes as a guide). His completion percentage on those throws had slipped from 71 percent in 2009 to 45 percent in 2010. Moss didn't help those issues out very much; during Moss's four-week tenure, http://images.chron.com/blogs/askacat/hatcat.JPG was 15-of-29 on those throws, for a completion percentage of 51 percent. Moss himself had a catch rate of 52 percent, well below the 61 percent figure he was at a year ago, but better than his 41 percent rate as a Patriots player.
Based on his form in New England and Minnesota, Moss just isn't playing like someone who can dominate at every level. He can still jump over defensive backs and make fantastic catches, but he has only two plays with more than 10 yards after the catch, and his success rate -- the percentage of the time he pushes his team toward a new set of downs -- has fallen from 57 percent in 2009 to 46 percent this year.
So, it looks like Moss is going to be best used as a complementary wideout that stretches defenses downfield, like a rich man's Chris Chambers. (Ouch.) And although the waiver process dictates that Moss doesn't have a choice over where he ends up, we can safely assume that he is going to want to play for a winner, and teams that are totally out of the playoff hunt won't bother to claim him and pay him the more than $3.4 million he's owed.
Let's go through the league by waiver priority (with thanks to AFC East blogger Tim Graham for compiling the list) and use context, scheme and this year's performance to see where Moss might be best suited. We'll give each team a score for fit, with zero representing a terrible situation for Moss and 10 an ideal one.
1. Buffalo: No hope of going to the playoffs and a similar player in the lineup in Lee Evans. Wouldn't spend the cash anyway. Fit: 0/10
2. Carolina: Promising performances from David Gettis and Brandon LaFell would be enough to justify avoiding Moss even if record was good. Fit: 0/10
3. Dallas: Money ain't a thang, but one of the few positions the Cowboys are deep at is wide receiver. Would be solely for PR distraction purposes. Fit: 2/10
4. San Francisco: Michael Crabtree has a better defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and catch rate than Moss, and the two are too similar to play across from each other. Fit: 1/10
5. Denver: A dark horse because of Moss' background with Josh McDaniels from their time in New England together, but Brandon Lloyd is second in the league in DYAR while playing the same downfield role Moss did in New England. No room for Moss here. Fit: 3/10
6. Detroit: Significant investments at both wide receiver spots in Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Not a Jim Schwartz guy. Fit: 0/10
7. Minnesota: Moving on ...
8. Cincinnati: Moss, T.O. and Chad Ochocinco would be a legendary news conference trio, but the Bengals aren't about to shell out the $3.4 million Moss is owed to use him as a third wideout. Fit: 1/10
9. Cleveland: The Browns weren't interested in Moss a month ago. They're going nowhere and have a variety of young wide receivers to give reps to. Moss would be their best receiver, though. Fit: 3/10
10. San Diego: Despite the injuries at wide receiver, the Chargers have the best DVOA in the league on "deep" passes (passes thrown 15 or more yards downfield), at 141.8 percent. Moss would fit right into the offense, but they would only need him until Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd get back. Fit: 7/10
11. Arizona: He's not starting ahead of Steve Breaston, and the Cardinals don't have a quarterback to get him the ball. Fit: 0/10
12. Jacksonville: Quietly effective combination at wideout with Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas and aversion to spending money make Moss a luxury Jags can't afford. Fit: 1/10
13. St. Louis: Every downfield target the Rams have used has gotten injured; at one point on Sunday, Sam Bradford was 12-of-15 for 58 yards. Moss would give the team an option they just don't have right now, and the Rams are right in the playoff hunt. An ideal place for Moss to land. Fit: 10/10
14. Oakland: Al Davis juggles grudges like you wouldn't believe. Fit: 1/10
15. Washington: While Dan Snyder will always be linked to these sort of nuclear options, Anthony Armstrong has a 12.0 percent DVOA, and Moss isn't the sort of player who goes well with Mike Shanahan. Unlikely. Fit: 4/10
16. Seattle: The Seahawks are reportedly interested in Moss, and it would make some sense: They rank 27th on deep passes, and Moss would be a good counter to the strength of Mike Williams. On the other hand, they rank 26th on all non-deep passes, and they have no left tackle. Moss won't solve their problems Fit: 5/10
17. Chicago: Moss in a Mike Martz offense in 2001 would have been terrifying; how can he make an impact as a deep receiver when Jay Cutler can't find Devin Hester now, though? Fit: 3/10
18. Miami: Another team rumored to be interested already, Miami ranks fourth in DVOA on short passes (fewer than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) and just 25th on deep throws. Moss would give the Dolphins a deep threat and they have a prominent former Marshall teammate on the roster: Chad Pennington. Fit: 8/10
19. Philadelphia: The Eagles don't mind taking chances, but Moss isn't beating a healthy DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin into the starting lineup. Fit: 2/10
20. Green Bay: The total lack of interest in Marshawn Lynch suggests that the Packers aren't prone to shopping for big-ticket items in midseason. If Donald Driver's injury is serious, they're more likely to give James Jones and Jordy Nelson time. Also: The mooning thing. Fit: 2/10
21. New Orleans: Sean Payton loves his deep threats, but he's already got too many of them to begin with. They do need a cornerback, though, and Moss had an interception on a Hail Mary pass last year … Fit: 3/10
22. Tennessee: The Titans have clearly established a trend of getting bad attitudes out of their locker room; the only reason they would consider Moss would be if Kenny Britt's injury is a season-ender. Fit: 3/10
23. Houston: With the seventh-best DVOA in the league on deep passes, the Texans are in the same boat as the Titans; unless Andre Johnson is suddenly done for the year, they don't need Moss. Fit: 3/10
24. Indianapolis: Hey, it would be fun. The Colts are the best short passing team in the league by DVOA, but are only 14th on deep throws, and they have depth issues at receiver with Austin Collie and Dallas Clark out. He could contribute with his knowledge of the Patriots, at least. Fit: 6/10
25. Kansas City: One of the best fits for Moss. Chambers has been a healthy scratch the past few weeks, and they don't have a great downfield receiver on the roster without him, ranking 22nd in DVOA on deep throws. His presence would help out the running game, but one problem: Matt Cassel. On bombs (25 yards or more downfield) to Moss in 2008, Cassel was just 4-of-22. And that was with a better Moss. Fit: 8/10
26. Tampa Bay: Mike Williams isn't a complete receiver yet, but he's a Moss starter kit, with a number of leaping catches over defenders for big plays. Tampa needs a possession receiver, not Moss. Fit: 3/10
27. New York Giants: What, you're going to bench Hakeem Nicks? Fit: 0/10
28. Baltimore: The Ravens hope that Donte' Stallworth will be the downfield receiver to play alongside their trio of veteran possession receivers, but Moss would be an upgrade on Stallworth. On the other hand, the Ravens already rank ninth in the league on deep throws, so they're doing OK without Moss or Stallworth. Fit: 4/10
29. Atlanta: Roddy White and Michael Jenkins play well off of each other, and the Falcons are sixth in the league on those rare times when they do throw deep. Perfectly content to use Harry Douglas as their home run threat. Fit: 2/10
30. New York Jets: Yes, they could stick it to the Patriots. On the other hand, they already have Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards for downfield passes. Signing Moss would just make one of those two unhappy. Fit: 3/10
31. Pittsburgh: After dealing Holmes away for a song? No. The Steelers also rank second in the league on deep passes, so there's no need. Fit: 0/10
32. New England: Moss knows the playbook. He appears to regret his decision to move away from the Patriots. But Bill Belichick isn't exactly fond of backsies, and Deion Branch and Brandon Tate have looked better than Moss since the latter's departure. It's a bad place for both parties. Fit: 3/10
After looking at each team's current situation, the Rams stand out as the best landing point for Moss at this point in time. NFC West blogger Mike Sando agrees. If Moss lasts until the Rams' spot at 13, they should take the risk and give Sam Bradford a downfield weapon.