i think the offense stats are pretty close to complete but there's still so much we don't understand about pitching, let alone defense or player development
Agreed. And just to really horrify VORP disciples, I think you can even learn something from Joe Morgan when it comes to "in the field" stuff. I realize Morgan is considered a human punchline by most everyone who's been influenced by James, but if you can look past the many blind spots that someone of his generation probably carries around (having to do with character, clutch play, the value of a .300 average in and of itself, etc.), there are going to be some things that he's learned about the game that I just don't believe you can arrive at through abstract statistical analysis. So treat him skeptically, for sure, but don't try to ridicule him out of extistence. (When the influence of James on me was at its peak in the late '80s/early '90s, Kubek used to drive me up the wall for the same reasons.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:19 (thirteen years ago) link
So treat him skeptically, for sure, but don't try to ridicule him out of extistence.
Not sure I can follow you this far.
― My totem animal is a hamburger. (WmC), Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:24 (thirteen years ago) link
Morgan does not deserve to have the most prestigious color commentary job for baseball in the world. That doesn't mean he's never insightful. But the fact that he has insights into baseball is meaningless. He lacks the ability to express those insights or the work ethic to learn about the teams he's watching. Orel Hershiser is a far better analyst. Keith Hernandez is another guy I've enjoyed. Neither of those guys is a stats guy, but both actually do the legwork to bring some on-the-field insight to the presentation.
Also, while I have my issues with Morgan, there are plenty of guys who are worse. Rob Dibble springs to mind.
― no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:26 (thirteen years ago) link
Orel Hershiser is a far better analyst.
Which reminds me, John Smoltz has been an absolute treat this year since he sorta retired.
― My totem animal is a hamburger. (WmC), Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:34 (thirteen years ago) link
Keith Hernandez is listenable mostly for the crazy shit he comes out with. He calls Jeff Francoeur "a streaky hitter."
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:38 (thirteen years ago) link
I probably haven't listened closely enough to Morgan to be defending him. The back-and-forth between Miller and him is easy enough on my ears that I've never quite understood the intensely negative feelings about him that I keep encountering, but maybe that's all credit to Miller. And I have the additional bias that the mid-'70s Reds were my favourite team. This goes back a ways, but I used to think Palmer, Seaver, and Reggie were great in the booth. As analysts, I can't remember. I just liked them.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:39 (thirteen years ago) link
to clemenza, i don't know dude, you seemed pretty "blinders-on" when discussing Bonds' achievements and were in the process of pooh-poohing him on the Pujols thread so........... idk, was tbh hard to take you seriously in your short shrift dismissal of him as a legit triple crown candidate given the 232 BBs that got in the way of him chasing such a "retro-cool" counting achievement (all the while destroying almost every offensive record in the process).
but kudos to all y'all who were reading bill james in the summer of love~~~
i don't mind Morgan and Miller, because they're both local guys. Morgan seems way worse on the page then in the booth ime.
― _▂▅▇█▓▒░◕‿‿◕░▒▓█▇▅▂_ (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:45 (thirteen years ago) link
francoeur is a streaky hitter in that he has a lot of cold streaks
― ciderpress, Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:49 (thirteen years ago) link
Steroids notwithstanding, I really wasn't discounting the magnitude of Bonds's statistical achievements--just that I thought the walks ruled out him ever having a realistic shot at the Triple Crown. Not just in terms of RBI, but, I thought, also in BA. But Ciderpress's math made me realize that he in fact likely would have won one, maybe even two. Which was your point to begin with--you were right, I was wrong. What I didn't appreciate, though, was pulling out VORP as kind of a gotcha moment, like I'd just been teleported out a 1974 issue of Baseball Digest. (Not to knock BD, which I used to love.) Again, I've been reading James forever.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 August 2010 19:58 (thirteen years ago) link
That's cool, just like I said, you appeared to be full blinders in your take on Bonds achievements.
Also, VORP was introduced 9 years ago by Keith Woolner. Bill James has always preferred win-shares and runs-created in my 10 years of being familiar with SABR. IIRC.
― _▂▅▇█▓▒░◕‿‿◕░▒▓█▇▅▂_ (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 26 August 2010 20:11 (thirteen years ago) link
who went to the pitchF/X summit in SF?
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Monday, 30 August 2010 02:38 (thirteen years ago) link
i liked this little bit from the pitchFX summary on bpro:
5:39: Brad Hawpe play: starts with a >80% chance of catching the ball, but freezes in place and fails to make the play. Difficult to represent visually, because the out probability plummets while Hawpe stands in place and time elapses. In a different Hawpe play, his first step gives him a lower probability of catching the ball, since he broke in the wrong direction. Rumor has it no Rockies reps are in attendance, but they’re not missing out, since they’ve enjoyed a front-row seat for this sort of action for the last several years.
― ciderpress, Monday, 30 August 2010 20:05 (thirteen years ago) link
haha
― no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Monday, 30 August 2010 21:23 (thirteen years ago) link
http://www.baycityball.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/chernoffteams.png
― no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Friday, 3 September 2010 16:12 (thirteen years ago) link
wau
― call all destroyer, Friday, 3 September 2010 16:14 (thirteen years ago) link
source?
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Friday, 3 September 2010 16:57 (thirteen years ago) link
http://www.baycityball.com/2010/09/01/wednesday-graph-major-league-chernoff-faces/
― no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Friday, 3 September 2010 18:42 (thirteen years ago) link
players w/an OPS of 1.000 or more in 2000
Todd HeltonManny RamirezCarlos DelgadoBarry BondsJason GiambiGary SheffieldVladimir GuerreroFrank ThomasSammy SosaMoises AlouJeff BagwellNomar GarciaparraRichard HidalgoAlex RodriguezBrian GilesJeff KentMike PiazzaTroy GlausEdgar Martinez
players w/an OPS of 1.000 or more in 2010
Josh HamiltonMiguel CabreraJoey VottoAlbert Pujols
― ('_') (omar little), Monday, 4 October 2010 06:32 (thirteen years ago) link
jim thome and justin morneau deserve a mention on that too for partial seasons of 1.000+
― ciderpress, Monday, 4 October 2010 16:41 (thirteen years ago) link
man some of the names on that 2000 list
― call all destroyer, Monday, 4 October 2010 17:11 (thirteen years ago) link
Richard Hidalgo is the one that jumps out at me. I sort of remember him...I think.
― clemenza, Monday, 4 October 2010 17:12 (thirteen years ago) link
I just looked him up--wow, his 2000 was huge. Should have mentioned him on the fluke thread a while back (although he did a few other good seasons).
― clemenza, Monday, 4 October 2010 17:14 (thirteen years ago) link
troy glaus didn't even get an mvp vote that season (though his teammate darin erstad did with one of the weirdest fluke seasons of them all)
― ciderpress, Monday, 4 October 2010 17:28 (thirteen years ago) link
for good measure, the players this season who finished between .900 and .999 --
José BautistaPaul KonerkoCarlos GonzálezTroy TulowitzkiMatt HollidayJayson WerthAdrián BéltreRobinson CanóAdrián GonzálezLuke Scott
and in 2000:
Jim EdmondsBobby AbreuChipper JonesEdgardo AlfonzoWill ClarkDavid JusticeCarl EverettBernie WilliamsRafael PalmeiroJermaine DyeDarin ErstadGeoff JenkinsTim SalmonJorge PosadaKen Griffey Jr.Luis GonzalezMike SweeneyJim ThomeJeffrey HammondsScott RolenJose VidroMagglio OrdóñezPhil NevinBobby HigginsonRyan KleskoTravis FrymanAndruw JonesSteve FinleySean Casey
― ('_') (omar little), Monday, 4 October 2010 23:30 (thirteen years ago) link
Didn't realize Luke Scott had such a good year.
― funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Monday, 4 October 2010 23:33 (thirteen years ago) link
I know nothing about sabermetrics. (Well, I read Moneyball once.) Where do I start? Go buy some of Bill James's old 1980s Baseball Abstracts on eBay?
― Mr. Snrub, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 00:23 (thirteen years ago) link
That's a good question. Is there a beginner's section at BP? Sabr 101?
― In "Bob" There Is No East or West (WmC), Tuesday, 5 October 2010 01:05 (thirteen years ago) link
http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/saber-101-saber-201/
http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/bbd-bj1.html
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 October 2010 02:54 (thirteen years ago) link
What about OPS+ for 2000 vs 2010? The league difference is probably 40-50 points of slugging. I'm betting that those lists nearly even out if you use OPS+ > 135 or 140 as the cutoff.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 09:19 (thirteen years ago) link
context makes the length of the list -- see 1930 vs 1912
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 October 2010 11:32 (thirteen years ago) link
Lisa Simpson as sabermetric Little League coach right now...
Bill James: "I made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes."
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Monday, 11 October 2010 00:16 (thirteen years ago) link
"It's the triumph of number crunching over the human spirit"
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Monday, 11 October 2010 00:23 (thirteen years ago) link
I don't know how many of you (if any) subscribe to James's site. He's been great lately. Right now, I get the feeling he is to sabermetrics what Andre Bazin ended up being to auteurism: original inventor (not quite true of Bazin, who was more the inspiration), now a somewhat skeptical onlooker. Bazin had that famous quote: "Auteur, yes--but of what?"
Here's James a couple of days ago on jargon:
Along the lines of your "PDO" story. . .at a spring training game in 2004 I was sitting in front of Mark Bellhorn's wife and son, and this boy, who I think must have been four years old at the time, is kind of chattering to his mom about the game. A player comes up that he doesn't know, and he says. .. I swear I am not making up one word of this. . . "Is he a good player? What's his on base percentage against left-handers?" That will always stick with me as the moment at which I realized that sabermetrics was mainstream, hearing this kid who I am sure hadn't started school yet ask about a player's on base percentage against left-handers.
But the question you pose is more central than you realize, I think, because what you are really asking is "How do you reach the public with your information?" I think the distinction I would make is between careless and careful progress. After RBI were introduced to the public and explained to the public, about 1912, there as eventually a column added to the Sunday batting summaries in the paper, "RBI". Somebody who saw the new column and didn't understand it could ask "What is this, RBI?", and there was probably a code at the bottom of the column that explained it.
That is CAREFUL progress. On the other hand, people will write articles in which they introduce LIPV (Leverage Index Performance Variation) and PAD/1000 (Pythagorean Advantage per 1000 games) and EBOR (Enhance Base/Out Ratio) and sixteen other measures, and then toward the end of the article they'll write that Michael Bourn had a 163 LIPV despite his -43 QXTR and his pathetic .721 M2D2, and you're thinking "What in the hell is he talking about?" That's careless progress.
My attitude has always been "Be sure that you take the public with you,"--or, at least, do what you can to take the public with you. Don't start speaking your own language that only you and two other people understand; take the time and make the effort to give anybody who wants to understand what you're saying a fair shot at it. I'm sure that sometimes I have failed to do that, but that's what I believe in. Take the time to type out "Batting Average on Balls in Play", rather than BABIP, and "Wins Above Replacement", rather than WAR. It just takes a few seconds.
Three things James often says that I love:
1) I need to look at that again.2) I was wrong.3) I don't know.
Especially the last one. I don't see those words too often around here. From at least a couple of you, I'm not sure if you're even familiar with those concepts.
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 13:59 (thirteen years ago) link
Let me preemptively provide you with your comeback:
"I sometimes think Clemenza makes sense. I need to look at that again."
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:01 (thirteen years ago) link
Every major saberoriented writer I'm aware of says there are tons of things we don't know.
But this was Neyer the other day disagreeing w/ James about the lingo thing:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/5960/lets-not-call-the-whole-babip-thing-off
There's this really cool thing called Google. There was a time, not so long ago, when if you were reading a book or a magazine and you came across some obscure technical term and couldn't figure out what it meant, you were basically stuck.
You're not stuck anymore.
...Bill knows what BABiP means. The great majority of Bill's readers -- all of whom are interested enough to spend actual money to read his missives on the Internet -- know what BABiP means. BABiP's been around for 10 years, and is well-established among the people who pay to read Bill James. In that particular space, spelling out Batting Average on Balls in Play would be almost as pointless as spelling out Earned Run Average.
I think Bill just doesn't like BABiP because he didn't grow up with it. When I worked for him, he didn't like it when I wrote that a player slugged .472 (or whatever)....
You wanna put me on TV, before the great unwashed masses? Then I'll spell out anything you like. Until then, I'm going to reserve my right to use acronyms and abbreviations that I believe you can handle.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:14 (thirteen years ago) link
"There's this really cool thing called Google."
No kidding, plus sabermetric writers are writing for a sabermetric audience. That audience (the one that presumably pays their bills, not the "great unwashed masses", not that I have any idea how these dudes make money) isn't going to want to read every acronym spelled out.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:18 (thirteen years ago) link
I'm sure that's true. Like I said, I just don't hear it very often around here. I guess I could do a search, but if Morbius ever came on and said "You know, you're right about that--what was I thinking?", I think I'd have several heart attacks on the spot.
As far as the acronyms go, I realize James is being disingenuous; he used to use things like RC/27 habitually. But I agree with his central point that jargon is odious. I deal with it every day in my job. No one can dream up ridiculous acronyms like educational resource teachers. Our big focus right now is "TLCP": Teaching Learning Critical Pathways. Which'll be in place till they dream up a new one.
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:28 (thirteen years ago) link
clemenza, I try not to post anything here I'm not certain of. I save that for the politcs thread.
also, jargon SAVES TIME.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:33 (thirteen years ago) link
Okay--I'm headed over to the politics thread to sample the humble, truth-seeking, "You know, I was wrong about that" version of Morbius!
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 14:36 (thirteen years ago) link
no, that's not what I meant...
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 23 October 2010 17:13 (thirteen years ago) link
I'm with Morbs on this one!
― macaroni rascal (polyphonic), Saturday, 23 October 2010 18:30 (thirteen years ago) link
Bizarre notion: explaining what you meant may actually help explain what you meant.
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 22:54 (thirteen years ago) link
are you this passive-aggressive with your middle school students?
― avoyoungdro's number (k3vin k.), Saturday, 23 October 2010 23:36 (thirteen years ago) link
I try not to take the bait from Morbius's amen corner. But I do appreciate your contribution.
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 23:38 (thirteen years ago) link
"now go to the principal's office"
― avoyoungdro's number (k3vin k.), Saturday, 23 October 2010 23:39 (thirteen years ago) link
I think I literally send a kid to the principal's office every two or three years. But is there any way I can send you back to the politics thread?
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 October 2010 23:41 (thirteen years ago) link
pretty funny nerdfight going on in here: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/pujols_the_57mm_man/#comments
the nemeses part cracked me up
― sanskrit, Monday, 22 November 2010 14:46 (thirteen years ago) link
Praiseball Bospectus is my one-stop shop for sabr-slapfights:
http://praiseball.wordpress.com/
― Onigaga (Princess TamTam), Monday, 22 November 2010 14:54 (thirteen years ago) link
oh ok, hi Shasta.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 November 2010 15:08 (thirteen years ago) link
The guy who does that blog seems to use "SABR" as jackassedly as you do. Ignorance is the new skinnyjeans.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 November 2010 15:09 (thirteen years ago) link
(I corrected five typos in that post, was headed home without a throw, then a "k" snuck into the last word.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2023 17:46 (six months ago) link
Brandon Belt just made hard contact with exactly the right launch angle and exit velocity and the ball went over the fence, so I know he's healthy and productive.
― clemenza, Friday, 29 September 2023 01:01 (six months ago) link
Just saw one of those generic Player A vs. B tables on my FB wall, this one with Schwarber and Dave Kingman. Through age-30 season (i.e., this year for Schwarber):
Schwarber - 246 HR, .227/.340/.492, 121 OPS+, 11.9 bWARKingman - 252 HR, .241/.305/.504, 121 OPS+, 14.5 bWAR
Was surprised by the closeness in HR/OPS+/bWAR (I would have thought Schwarber would have a clear edge), even more so by the perceptions of each in their day: Kingman a one-dimensional freak, Schwarber an underrated analytic sleeper. There's a bit more, of course: Kingman's toxicity in the clubhouse, Schwarber's postseason heroics. But they really do underscore changes in attitudes brought on by analytics.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 19:52 (five months ago) link
i bet schwarber is even worse on defense than Kingman was. though considering the "fog of glove" i wonder if the correction for his fielding ability is a bit extreme. but he's a player of such extremes overall, so who knows? i tend to think his value might be a bit more than the analytics suggest, though.
― omar little, Thursday, 26 October 2023 20:11 (five months ago) link
i don't think he's really an underrated analytic sleeper? i mean he's *interesting*, but there are pieces out there asking whether his are the least-valuable 40+ homer seasons ever. b-ref has him at 0.7 WAR this year with fangraphs at 1.4. he suffered from their need to use harper at DH this year, but a 119 wRC+ in itself isn't super-great for a $20m/yr player who offers nothing else (tangible)
kinda curious exactly how bad a catcher he was tho
― mookieproof, Thursday, 26 October 2023 20:42 (five months ago) link
I overstated that, yes, but I think he gets a measure of respect from a lot of fans and writers today that Kingman didn't. This evolution, of course, started 25 years ago when James would tell people that Bobby Grich and Darrell Evans and Gene Tenace were better players--contributed more to winning games--than Steve Garvey or Bill Buckner or Al Oliver did. He was widely viewed as a crackpot. Analytics isn't exactly mainstream yet, but it's getting closer and closer all the time. (Not a meaningless indicator, I'd say: WAR on Immaculate Grid today.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:16 (five months ago) link
Today: James is widely viewed as a crackpot, but for different reasons...progress!
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:17 (five months ago) link
"25 years ago"--make that 45
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:26 (five months ago) link
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/86275/veteran-presence-kyle-schwarber-phillies-leadoff/
I can't access this--"Is Kyle Schwarber the Weirdest Leadoff Hitter Ever?--but I'm guessing it splits the difference as to how he's viewed today.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:39 (five months ago) link
108115104126
I imagine it's really tough to have a full season in which your runs, hits, rbi, and walks are so numerically close to each other.
― omar little, Thursday, 26 October 2023 22:12 (five months ago) link
Not as close, but geez, his batting average was also a three-digit number starting with 1.
― clemenza, Friday, 27 October 2023 12:28 (five months ago) link
I stand corrected on Dave Kingman. Turns out he did have his fans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKNnXZqQom8
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 00:02 (five months ago) link
Sabermetrics is kind of old news; I propose turning this into a "Tommy Lasorda sure does love to say 'fuck' a lot" video thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvFMEoKI7eE
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:18 (five months ago) link
Getting back to the subject at hand, all those links in this thread's original post 13 years ago are still active. SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average): never really took off.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:41 (five months ago) link
Which is odd, being so easy to calculate in your head:
6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) – 1.858((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/- 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) where +/- is as before such that it is a negative sign when (GB-FB-PU)/PA is positive and vice versa.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:43 (five months ago) link
u mad doggie?
Brian Cashman pushes back on the notion that the Yankees are an "analytically-driven" organization:"No one is doing their deep dives, they're just throwing bulls--- and accusing us of being run analytically. To be said we're guided by analytics as a driver is a lie." pic.twitter.com/ru6gAYc0Cf— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) November 7, 2023
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 8 November 2023 11:28 (five months ago) link
Amusing if you grew up with this:
https://i.postimg.cc/ZRPJVS6M/lineup.jpg
They've got #2 wrong: that was your fabled bat-control, hit-and-run guy.
― clemenza, Thursday, 18 April 2024 20:31 (two days ago) link
"guy who sees 10 pitches per AB"
― Ryan seaQuest (Will M.), Friday, 19 April 2024 20:50 (yesterday) link
That too, yeah--give your leadoff guy a chance to steal. Neither of the first two #2 hitters I think of, though, match the stereotype: Griffey for the Big Red Machine (faster than Rose at leadoff), and Alomar for the Jays' WS teams (would have been a #3 hitter on many teams, but the Jays were overloaded with hitting).
― clemenza, Saturday, 20 April 2024 00:13 (one hour ago) link