Prince Albert Pujols, he reigneth

ironically, if he wasn't going to maintain those averages then the IBBs were probably mostly incorrect moves

I don't know the ins and outs of analyzing IBB. Bonds was hitting HR at such a phenomenal rate that, even if his average had dropped, probably there was a net gain for the teams that were walking him. I did feel at the time that a complete panic had overtaken the league with regards to pitching to Bonds that was a little out of proportion.

i just did some quick math, and if NO ONE had IBBed bonds in 2004 when he got IBBed 120 times, he would have had to hit .308 in those extra 120 PAs to maintain his batting title lead over Helton. and that's making the stupidly conservative assumption he draws 0 unintentional walks in that span, otherwise the number dips down below .300.

Now, if we could only determine each instance of an intentional "unintentional" walk...

in 2002 he was IBBed 68 times, and he would have needed 11 hits in those 68 PAs (.162)

i think it's safe to say he would have won the 2002 one, 2004 is less clear-cut but who cares

Good point--maybe he would have won the batting title after all. Here's a slight variation for 2004. Since a whole bunch of his non-intentional walks were, realistically, intentional walks too, I looked at his season in terms of 100 walks period, adding back 132 AB. That would have given him 505 for the season, in which case he would have needed 176 hits to beat Helton; he would have needed to go 41/132, or .310. Yeah, I think you can safely say he would have done that. That would still leave the RBI leg of the Triple Crown, where he finished 30 behind Castilla. So he would have needed 31 RBI in 132 AB--a pretty good clip, but manageable. Home runs, he would have cleaned up. So: in a more normal 100-walk season, he might indeed have won the Triple Crown.

Curiously enough, I'm still excited about Pujols' run.

I made a silly mistake in my 225-hit comment upthread--that'd be true only if nobody walked him all season. Duh.

"Bonds would have won a couple times if he wasn't intentionally walked a zillion times. I think that's when people stopped caring about the triple crown."

I thought that BA was based on plate appearances not at bats?

BA titles that is.

Eligibility is based on PA--3.1 per game, I think. I seem to recall there's a provision that if you fall short of that, but would have won anyway with the minimum PA, you still get the title. That happened once...Ted Williams?

"I think that's when people stopped caring about the triple crown."

I think the general rise of sabermetrics had more to do with this than Bonds actually.

If the Reds win the division, the TC is Albert's best/only hope for being MVP again, assuming Votto stays on track

If Pujols and Votto are still really close in three weeks, we'll find out whether people care or not. I say they will. Because so few players ever get close, it's just not on the radar. And because it involves three things instead of just one, it's not as accessible as some guy making a run at .400, or going on a 30-game hitting streak. If people turn out not to care, I seriously doubt whether sabermetrics will have anything to do with it. For some writers, probably; for the average fan, who still does not care or even know anything about VORP, no way. A much simpler explanation would be record fatigue, and the general distrust of offensive numbers that I think still (rightly or wrongly) exists.

i think it's weird how much people associate steroids with offense, when pitchers were taking them too! throwing a ball really hard to me seems intuitively more closely linked to pure strength than squaring up a baseball. i guess it's because it was hitting records that were broken during the era rather than pitching records.

i mean, people are starting to raise eyebrows at jose bautista, but no one would have suggested that ubaldo was using after his absurd first half, nor was greinke accused at any point last year.

Possible explanation: the power of first impressions. Steroids first became a story with McGwire, and from there it just kind of stuck that it was an offensive issue. (Not saying that you're wrong.)

guess it's because it was hitting records that were broken during the era rather than pitching records.

Pedro broke records and was arguably the greatest pitcher ever during his peak, and Randy Johnson took his game to a new level and was pitching out of his mind in his late 30's. Nobody cared because they didn't look like muscled freaks (just ordinary freaks) and OF COURSE every sportswriter and casual fan can spot a steroid user from a mile away.

RJ sort of looks like a freak.

Yeah I'd def say dude looked like an extraordinary freak.

Johnson didn't come into the league at 5-10, though; he didn't grow a foot.

they didn't look like muscled freaks (just ordinary freaks)

there was nothing ordinary about RJ. i was thinking more like carnival freak.

Pedro didn't break any of the Sacred Pitching Records (which are all unbreakable due to changes in pitcher use and the deadball era and nolan ryan's freakish rubber arm)

What sacred pitching records? I guess the closest thing would be the single season strikeout records, but no pitching record comes close to being as sacred as 56 or 755 762.

Pedro owns the single season and career records in Adjusted ERA+, which levels the playing field between him and the dead ball guys. Bob Gibson's 1.12 ranks "only" seventh all-time (and behind Greg Maddux's two best seasons).

i was thinking single-season and career for the pitching "triple crown" stats of strikeouts, wins, ERA

Where did this Joey Votto dude come from.

he's been around for a couple years

he hit about this well last year but missed a couple months so he didn't have the counting stats to get him noticed

Etobicoke.

Pedro owns the single season and career records in Adjusted ERA+

Well...he was phenomenal during that time frame, but that's what I meant earlier about Sabermetrics not being on the radar of the average fan (not today, and even less so then). If you think interest in Pujols and Votto is minimal, I can guarantee that someone chasing the Adjusted ERA record this year would be greeted by the sound of less than one hand clapping.

just hit #400.

Joey Votto has been pretty good hitter since he got his Sept call up in 2007. He was kind of streaky for his power hitting his first couple of years, seeming to hit his homers in bunches. The guy has been a freaking witch going to the opposite field and he hits lefties pretty well. That homer he hit off Kershaw and both yesterday against the Giants were to left field. While I am sure over his career, Great American will help his power numbers, so far his HR splits are actually better on the road (helped by this west coast swing). I'm sure not having Encarnacion playing third has helped, but Votto has really noticably improved at first base this year. One of the questions for next season is whether Votto would perhaps consider being moved to left field, as the Reds top prospect Yonder Alonso might be ready for the bigs, but they say the guy doesn't have the speed or arm to play in the outfield.

Pujols is in another category, the guy has been so good for so long. I'd love it if Votto could end up with a decade like that.

he's the only ball player i can think of from my hometown. if he had a decade like that i would likely become locked in perpetual orgasm.

yonder can't play any position at first, where he is actually pretty decent

the kid can really, really hit, but he's pretty much going to be a worse version of all star -- potential to be a perennial all star but votto is a potential perennial MVP -- i wouldn't jeopardize that by trying to move votto to another position

what they need to do is evaluate a position of weakness (maybe an OF prospect as insurance against stubbs/bruce flaming out) and trade yonder for a player at that position

lol at that whole post

can't play any position BUT first

he's pretty much going to be a worse version of VOTTO

they are gonna be a potential powerhouse tho -- yasmani grandal is fucking sick

I STILL BELIEVE in jay bruce

he's gonna hit 35HR next year (i've said this the past 2 years too but This Time It Counts)

yeah i mean he's not having a horrible season or anything

stubbs i think is teetering on the brink of major bust

or maybe he's just sophomore slumping, idk

stubbs is a good defensive CF though, he doesn't have to hit that well to be an average player.

also true

is this actually happening

just this whole game

this game is a literal nightmare

whoops, too many cards threads at once

I think Joey Votto could do OK in left, the guy can run quite well and seems to have enough arm to hit a cutoff guy. I think if the Reds prime the pump and come up with a big enough contract, I think JV might consider the move as he seems like a dude that really wants to WIN. I love Gomes as a personality, but left is kind of a black hole for the club. Alot of Reds fans are wanting to give Alonso away on tons of dumbass trade ideas, I just know they let him go they will regret it unless it is tied to bringing back Hanley Ramirez.

Stubbs could do better just by even putting the ball in play, his speed would get him another hit a week. The guy is a K machine, then again so is Chris Heisey and Jay Bruce for that matter.

i would likely become locked in perpetual orgasm

TMI

i was thinking single-season and career for the pitching "triple crown" stats of strikeouts, wins, ERA

I figured that ... I guess it's a bit strange that the people always make a big deal about guys chasing the hitting triple crown, but nobody says anything about the pitcher's triple crown. I think Clemens, Pedro, and Santana have all done it in the past 15 years, and maybe Johnson did too? It should be a big deal even to people who only care about conventional stats. It should be an even bigger deal when somebody does it during a hitter's era.

Adjusted ERA+ is fairly basic stuff, it seems like it wouldn't be too hard to get more people to start using it (even OBP and SLG are standard these days). Unless people really do think that Bob Gibson in 1968 was twice as good as any pitcher in the game today.

Pitching triple crown winners:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/pitrip.shtml

(all the guys I mentioned, plus Jake Peavy)

And over the last 30-40 years, it's been just as rare as the hitting TC. Between 1972 and Clemens in 1997, only Dwight Gooden managed it (1985). In the AL, Clemens was the first to win the TC in 52 years! (as a Jays fan, I should have remembered that)

as a J's fan i've been purging Clemens from my memory.

As a Jays' fan (I think we just completed a Triple Crown), I do remember some coverage of Clemens' two TCs, but you're right, not a whole lot. I have no explanation as to why. There was a wire-service story in one of the Toronto papers this morning about Pujols and Votto chasing the TC, so maybe it's just about to get some attention. The story reminded me that Yaz and the other most recent TC winners were all in the AL; no one's done it in the NL since Medwick in '37.

One thing that jumped out at me when I looked at the Wikipedia list of TCs (they put hitters and pitchers on the same page) is the quality of names on there. The majority of players were first-tier, overwhelming HOF'ers, and the rest, almost without exception, were career stars of one magnitude or another. More than the MVP or Cy Young lists, I'd say (partly, but not wholly, explained by the fact that awards are subject to the whims of voters). The list of AL hitters is especially daunting: Lajoie, Cobb, Foxx, Gehrig, Williams (twice), Mantle, Robinson, Yastrzemski. When Yaz is the worst player on the list, that's some list.

I'm going to pretend I didn't just find out from an ILE thread that Pujols will be at the Glenn Beck rally this weekend.

I STILL BELIEVE in jay bruce

he's gonna hit 35HR next year (i've said this the past 2 years too but This Time It Counts)

― ciderpress, Thursday, August 26, 2010 10:35 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

apparently batting him leadoff was the secret catalyst