We're renovating at work and I keep having nightmares where we fall into the red and don't get credit to finish the construction work and the place gets shutdown half done.
Worst case scenario this would make a pretty comfortable squatting place I suppose!
― national oracle BIG HOOS (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 10 November 2008 17:55 (fifteen years ago) link
i plan on squatting in one of the 1m half finished condos in brooklyn!
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Monday, 10 November 2008 17:57 (fifteen years ago) link
It looks like the banks are about done folding - for now. The stock market has nearly found a trading range, even if it is still as volatile as fuck. The next shoe to drop seems to be unemployment, which has been rocketing up in the past two months and it seems like there's no end is in sight.
In a few months, if unemployment gets high enough, this could have a spillover effect on credit card debt and we could see another round of financial panic. That's why the gov is so nervous to get another stimulus package moving through Congress. That, plus the shuddery thought of GM declaring bankruptcy.
― Aimless, Monday, 10 November 2008 18:28 (fifteen years ago) link
You mean the I-banks? There are going to be dozens of small banks that fail in the coming months.
I disagree also that the trading range has been established--the economic fundamentals are still shit and the volatile nature of the market smells like impulse buying/selling. If that's a range, it's huge and unprecedented and worrisome...the impact of global recession is going to take months to impact.
Also, the AIG re-bailout is fucking unreal.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Monday, 10 November 2008 18:48 (fifteen years ago) link
We still haven't seen the CDS problems seep through the market, that is a gordian knot of liabilities. Like the 80s Lloyd's names who never realised that they might one day have to shell out for liabilities after taking all that lovely money, but much, much worse as it spreads very widely.
― Spritz con Bitter (Ed), Monday, 10 November 2008 18:58 (fifteen years ago) link
I agree that the idea that the financial system or the economy have been stabilized or can be made stable in the next six months is a pipe dream. I just expect that the big stories in the next three months will be unemployment spreading like a bad stain and Christmas retail business dropping off the table. Once we get those facts established, stocks will not stay where they are today; they'll drop some more. Banks will also take more hits.
The gov's going to be burning through money like jet fuel trying to patch things up. This should at least slow down the collapse, which is a worthwhile goal. A slower collapse will cause less wreckage. Poor Obama, stuck trying to deal with this megamess.
― Aimless, Monday, 10 November 2008 19:01 (fifteen years ago) link
naw he's in the perfect position - got job security and will be hailed a savior when things turn around
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Monday, 10 November 2008 19:03 (fifteen years ago) link
btw anyone disagreeing w/krugman and reich as far as what needs doing
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/opinion/10krugman.html
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/09/the_mini_depression_and_the_ma
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Monday, 10 November 2008 19:05 (fifteen years ago) link
I perfectly agree that we need a huge public-works stimulus.
One of the problems of the recent housing bubble was the misallocation of trillions of dollars to build enormous houses that no one can really afford to live in. That misallocation cannot be undone, sadly. We're stuck with that shit for decades.
If we rebuild our roads and bridges and energy infrastructure, we'll create real wealth, not the image of wealth. I suppose we can carve up some of the McMansions into weird multi-dwelling makeshifts, but really that's a piss poor answer to a problem that has no good answers.
― Aimless, Monday, 10 November 2008 19:27 (fifteen years ago) link
Krugman forgets to mention that a lot of people in the WPA were building stuff like railroads and making a pittance. Will millions of Wii-swilling riding mower addicts have the stones to do that kind of work?
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 01:41 (fifteen years ago) link
FIND OUT NEXT WEEK
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 01:42 (fifteen years ago) link
i disagree with reich only in that i do think tax cuts are necessary for lower-income workers but yeah i def agree with the basic premise that the initial amounts being talked around are way, way too low. compared to the stimulus package the chinese have just put through it's obvious we're going to have to increase the size of gov't spending dramatically.
still kinda worried about what that means lol macro outlook tho
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Tuesday, 11 November 2008 02:36 (fifteen years ago) link
Will millions of Wii-swilling riding mower addicts have the stones to do that kind of work?
lol I dunno if millions of soon-to-be unemployed retail workers are really all that into riding mowers and nintendo
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 02:41 (fifteen years ago) link
certainly not when you consider that riding mowers require gasoline and Wii requires a living room
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 02:42 (fifteen years ago) link
have played outdoor wii fwiw
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Tuesday, 11 November 2008 02:45 (fifteen years ago) link
How do you swill Wii?
Oh wait EW!
― Albert Jeans (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 11 November 2008 02:56 (fifteen years ago) link
drinkability
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 03:01 (fifteen years ago) link
michael lewis knows how to tell a story http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?tid=true
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Tuesday, 11 November 2008 14:15 (fifteen years ago) link
we gonna be repeatedly knocked unconscious and subsequently revived
― BIG HOOS' macaroni is off the motherfucking chain (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Tuesday, 11 November 2008 15:14 (fifteen years ago) link
Has anyone read Michael Lewis' "The Real Price of Everything"? I'm looking for an introduction to economics as a present to a student, and I need something as readable as possible
― Ismael Klata, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 15:24 (fifteen years ago) link
OMG the handout line is going to grow long after GM sucks at the teet (again.)
― Dandy Don Weiner, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 22:16 (fifteen years ago) link
IK, I haven't read that, but Michael Lewis is basically awesome
― TOMBOT, Tuesday, 11 November 2008 22:39 (fifteen years ago) link
AIG is already coming back for second helpings.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 00:23 (fifteen years ago) link
don't get me started on the fuckers at AIG. Or the fuckers in DC who are going to fucking keep the gravy train alive. Or the fucking jive talk coming out of the White House.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 00:58 (fifteen years ago) link
I didn't know you spoke jive, Don.
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:02 (fifteen years ago) link
man I wish I knew how to short the fuck out of some CDOs or whatever back in 05/06
― TOMBOT, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:20 (fifteen years ago) link
all these fucking assholes
anther annoying thing: it wouldnt have helped to know how to fuck w/derivatives cause they kept that shit all for themselves - common man not allowed to play - the greedy fucks
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:27 (fifteen years ago) link
come on im fully capable of insuring yr investment risks big bank - check me out im at least as trustworthy as the next guy!
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:29 (fifteen years ago) link
yeah apparently you have to go to a conference in vegas by invitation only and then go over to the table of the guy who invited you and say "I want to short the guy I'm sitting with." very technical stuff
― TOMBOT, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:29 (fifteen years ago) link
irl loz!
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:32 (fifteen years ago) link
lolz
yeah apparently you have to go to a conference in vegas by invitation only stanford and then go over to the table of the guy who invited you and say "I want to short the guy I'm sitting with." very technical stuff
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:34 (fifteen years ago) link
lol like any incompetent fuck couldn't have been fuckin w/derivatives in 05/06
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:35 (fifteen years ago) link
anyways all you really need is some rich suckers and a "probablistic model" predicting that you will never lose money ever and a russian dude with a math ph.d and youve got a successful hedge fund
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:41 (fifteen years ago) link
cool! i have none of those things but can i still be down ???
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:43 (fifteen years ago) link
i mean im totally willing to create my own probabilistic model but it might not look like other people since i have only the foggiest idea of what that is
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:45 (fifteen years ago) link
btw will this involve going back in time
I LOVE CRICKETT INVESTMENTS LLC 945 East Putnam AvenueSuite 77Greenwich, CT 06830
investing in exotic and illiquid asset categories proven results within an acceptable margin of error of ave. market returns and using most sophisticated quantative data-modelling available to fleece you of 20% of all your monies
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:52 (fifteen years ago) link
this is fine but will require an extra SEC filing so warn your admin
also also also compliance dept. will consist of one of those birds that teeter back and forth, my 90-something great-aunt and my roommate from prep school. this is a MUST
― z z. st. z z. uv (Lamp), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 01:53 (fifteen years ago) link
oh man i feel like i might survive this economic crisis after all!
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 02:01 (fifteen years ago) link
no GM bailout.
that's the way I'm starting to think on this.
― Super Cub, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 02:54 (fifteen years ago) link
It looks as though prior to the hyperinflationary episode of the Weimar Republic of the 20s the German Mark appreciated fairly strongly after WW1 during a deflationary period of 1920-1921. While there seem to be a variety of reasons for the dollars recent comparative strength, there still seems something counterintuitive about a deflationary period for a debtor nation so the above period is interesting. Presumably the Germans were printing during this period yet deflation still occured for a time. Parallels?
Need to read more about this period
― Kondratieff, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 17:42 (fifteen years ago) link
News in the UK is talking about deflation.
― Ed, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 18:15 (fifteen years ago) link
i read through that bailout bill and the one thing that stood out was:CHANGES CAN BE MADE AT ANYTIME WITHOUT COLSULTATITON O_o
― carne asada, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 18:20 (fifteen years ago) link
i think that was the 1st one - the one that didnt pass
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 18:21 (fifteen years ago) link
this one?http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Articles.Detail&Article_id=76b1aea4-39b8-404f-b3cd-f8b6c46e3b14&Month=10&Year=2008
― carne asada, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 18:24 (fifteen years ago) link
In re: Weimar. It is my understanding that the hyperinflationary period was the result of a deliberate decision on the part of the government, which faced very steep reparation payments after WWI.
Given that the reparations in the Versailles Treaty were a fixed amount in marks, by destroying the value of the mark, the Weimar government could clear its war debt and allow the country to start afresh. It was a backdoor method of meeting the letter of the treaty, while subverting its intent.
I don't think this decision to hyperinflate was taken immediately, but only after it became clear how crippling the debt would be. This may account for the period of a strengthening mark in 1920-1921.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 12 November 2008 18:27 (fifteen years ago) link
some big heads could roll at ubs http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/business/worldbusiness/13ubs.html
― SNAKES! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 12 November 2008 20:35 (fifteen years ago) link