Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Uh... not all of us.

what he said

My mom spent miles on me to get home for Xmas after I joked a few days ago that I had about the same odds of getting a job between now and Xmas as McCain did of winning the election. I think that bummed her out twice at once. :(

http://www.craigslist.org/about/best/nyc/16786310.html
^
rolling economy into the shitbin

Jesus, at least it's not full-time.

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6347/citizensoldierwv8.gif

http://assets.comics.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/200000/50000/5000/500/255546/255546.full.gif

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide

This is standard central bank policy, it stops people panicking about the health of firms being rescued, and causing Bank runs. Britain didn't do things in secret for a while an this caused the Run on Northern Rock.

We're renovating at work and I keep having nightmares where we fall into the red and don't get credit to finish the construction work and the place gets shutdown half done.

Worst case scenario this would make a pretty comfortable squatting place I suppose!

i plan on squatting in one of the 1m half finished condos in brooklyn!

It looks like the banks are about done folding - for now. The stock market has nearly found a trading range, even if it is still as volatile as fuck. The next shoe to drop seems to be unemployment, which has been rocketing up in the past two months and it seems like there's no end is in sight.

In a few months, if unemployment gets high enough, this could have a spillover effect on credit card debt and we could see another round of financial panic. That's why the gov is so nervous to get another stimulus package moving through Congress. That, plus the shuddery thought of GM declaring bankruptcy.

You mean the I-banks? There are going to be dozens of small banks that fail in the coming months.

I disagree also that the trading range has been established--the economic fundamentals are still shit and the volatile nature of the market smells like impulse buying/selling. If that's a range, it's huge and unprecedented and worrisome...the impact of global recession is going to take months to impact.

Also, the AIG re-bailout is fucking unreal.

We still haven't seen the CDS problems seep through the market, that is a gordian knot of liabilities. Like the 80s Lloyd's names who never realised that they might one day have to shell out for liabilities after taking all that lovely money, but much, much worse as it spreads very widely.

I agree that the idea that the financial system or the economy have been stabilized or can be made stable in the next six months is a pipe dream. I just expect that the big stories in the next three months will be unemployment spreading like a bad stain and Christmas retail business dropping off the table. Once we get those facts established, stocks will not stay where they are today; they'll drop some more. Banks will also take more hits.

The gov's going to be burning through money like jet fuel trying to patch things up. This should at least slow down the collapse, which is a worthwhile goal. A slower collapse will cause less wreckage. Poor Obama, stuck trying to deal with this megamess.

naw he's in the perfect position - got job security and will be hailed a savior when things turn around

btw anyone disagreeing w/krugman and reich as far as what needs doing

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/opinion/10krugman.html

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/09/the_mini_depression_and_the_ma

I perfectly agree that we need a huge public-works stimulus.

One of the problems of the recent housing bubble was the misallocation of trillions of dollars to build enormous houses that no one can really afford to live in. That misallocation cannot be undone, sadly. We're stuck with that shit for decades.

If we rebuild our roads and bridges and energy infrastructure, we'll create real wealth, not the image of wealth. I suppose we can carve up some of the McMansions into weird multi-dwelling makeshifts, but really that's a piss poor answer to a problem that has no good answers.

Krugman forgets to mention that a lot of people in the WPA were building stuff like railroads and making a pittance. Will millions of Wii-swilling riding mower addicts have the stones to do that kind of work?

FIND OUT NEXT WEEK

btw anyone disagreeing w/krugman and reich as far as what needs doing

i disagree with reich only in that i do think tax cuts are necessary for lower-income workers but yeah i def agree with the basic premise that the initial amounts being talked around are way, way too low. compared to the stimulus package the chinese have just put through it's obvious we're going to have to increase the size of gov't spending dramatically.

still kinda worried about what that means lol macro outlook tho

Will millions of Wii-swilling riding mower addicts have the stones to do that kind of work?

lol I dunno if millions of soon-to-be unemployed retail workers are really all that into riding mowers and nintendo

certainly not when you consider that riding mowers require gasoline and Wii requires a living room

have played outdoor wii fwiw

How do you swill Wii?

Oh wait EW!

drinkability

michael lewis knows how to tell a story http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?tid=true

we gonna be repeatedly knocked unconscious and subsequently revived

Has anyone read Michael Lewis' "The Real Price of Everything"? I'm looking for an introduction to economics as a present to a student, and I need something as readable as possible

OMG the handout line is going to grow long after GM sucks at the teet (again.)

IK, I haven't read that, but Michael Lewis is basically awesome

AIG is already coming back for second helpings.

don't get me started on the fuckers at AIG. Or the fuckers in DC who are going to fucking keep the gravy train alive. Or the fucking jive talk coming out of the White House.

I didn't know you spoke jive, Don.

man I wish I knew how to short the fuck out of some CDOs or whatever back in 05/06

all these fucking assholes

anther annoying thing: it wouldnt have helped to know how to fuck w/derivatives cause they kept that shit all for themselves - common man not allowed to play - the greedy fucks

come on im fully capable of insuring yr investment risks big bank - check me out im at least as trustworthy as the next guy!

yeah apparently you have to go to a conference in vegas by invitation only and then go over to the table of the guy who invited you and say "I want to short the guy I'm sitting with." very technical stuff

irl loz!

lolz

yeah apparently you have to go to a conference in vegas by invitation only stanford and then go over to the table of the guy who invited you and say "I want to short the guy I'm sitting with." very technical stuff

lol like any incompetent fuck couldn't have been fuckin w/derivatives in 05/06

anyways all you really need is some rich suckers and a "probablistic model" predicting that you will never lose money ever and a russian dude with a math ph.d and youve got a successful hedge fund

cool! i have none of those things but can i still be down ???

i mean im totally willing to create my own probabilistic model but it might not look like other people since i have only the foggiest idea of what that is

btw will this involve going back in time

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btw will this involve going back in time

this is fine but will require an extra SEC filing so warn your admin

also also also compliance dept. will consist of one of those birds that teeter back and forth, my 90-something great-aunt and my roommate from prep school. this is a MUST