T|S One Box or Two Boxes (Newcomb's Paradox)

i mean, i get what you're saying: if you choose to take box B and really mean it, then bob very likely predicted that. okay, so having made that sincere choice, what's to prevent you from changing your mind and taking both boxes, thus somehow "fooling" the supposedly near-infallible bob?

two things:

1) if it's a truly sincere choice, then once made, it cannot be undone. i.e., sincere choice is irrevocable. i say this because any mental decision that IS revocable can be described as a part of the pattern of consideration that might eventually lead to a real and final choice, and that's not what bob seems to be predicting.

2) although reverse causation cannot be assumed, we must still act as though reverse causation is in effect. i say this because we do not understand the actual mechanism that governs bob's predictions. that's what i meant earlier. we only know that the act of taking both boxes seems to drastically reduce the likelihood that box B will contain anything, and given the absence of any other information, we might as well go with what we've been given.

There's certainly a correlation between taking both boxes and Box B not containing anything. Not a causation though. (The causation is that Bob predicted you'd take both boxes, that's why Box B doesn't contain anything. That you took both boxes is incidental.)

OT: I kinda want to run a bunch of other polls in a similar vein (A priori knowledge: Yes/No, Abstract Objects: Platonism/Nominalism, etc). Peeps be interested?

There's certainly a correlation between taking both boxes and Box B not containing anything. Not a causation though. (The causation is that Bob predicted you'd take both boxes, that's why Box B doesn't contain anything. That you took both boxes is incidental.)

yeah, i get that. but as a chooser, you have to assume a quasi-causal relationship between the choice you make (the only part of this situation you can control) and the outcome you hope to receive. you cannot know how bob came to possess this almost perfect understanding, after all. nor can you know what bob has predicted. you only know that whatever choice you ultimately do make, it is very likely to have been correctly anticipated by bob. therefore, by making a choice, and only from your own perceptual standpoint, you more-or-less "cause" the outcome. this has to do with the nature of time. in the scenario described, bob has predicted the future existence of something that did not yet exist at the time of prediction. in other words and regardless of what bob has predicted, prior to your actually making a choice, your choice does not exist. since it asks you (dear reader) to render a decision, this puzzle assumes the existence of free will. therefore, in the act of choosing, you validate (or invalidate) bob's prediction, and your choice IS causal in that sense. the problem is that you cannot possibly know how to invalidate bob's prediction, which makes it prudent to assume that bob has predicted things correctly and to make the choice that will provide maximum benefit under that circumstance.

the problem is that you cannot possibly know how to invalidate bob's prediction, which makes it prudent to assume that bob has predicted things correctly and to make the choice that will provide maximum benefit under that circumstance.

This is my reasoning as well.

The only thing that violates this is the friend who can see into the boxes, and the interesting thing is that if you assume Bob is near-infallible, the odds that you will get $101K after your friend looks at the money goes down dramatically.

contenderizer otm

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I kinda want to run a bunch of other polls in a similar vein (A priori knowledge: Yes/No, Abstract Objects: Platonism/Nominalism, etc). Peeps be interested?

yeah, there ain't enough philosophy in this place.

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