Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

soooooo the DOW was just down 900 points?

yes

my dad was telling me to buy short funds on sunday. I DIDN LISSEN. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:VXX

intertsing that earlier today ritholtz let it be known that his portfolio had just become 100% cash

Said Ritholtz post.

Smart guy. He's managed to stay one step ahead of this mess all along.

yeah but Ritholz said it had nothing to do with Greece, and today's plunge is all about Greece.

BR's always been pretty open about his positions.

i'm optimistic about the economy. financial reform will help, steering industry towards green-technology and efficient automobiles will keep us innovative in areas where we can lead, and other reforms (e.g., cap-and-trade, if it comes) will jolt the economy, too. admittedly, we need (a) more personal savings (and less consumer debt), (b) more manufacturing-sector jobs, and (c) to reduce the debt (after the recovery puts us beyond the point where another stimulus may be needed).

I'm not optimistic about the economy or the recovery at all. It's basically been jobless and no one I know or read thinks that is going to change significantly any time soon. 1 in 5 men aged 24-55 are out of work. That's an astounding number.

I really don't see how financial reform will help the economy i.e. help it grow. I don't see how green technology will help grow the economy significantly all, and the same goes for auto efficiency. How will cap and trade jolt the economy into growth? I think it's possible to be optimistic about these areas Daniel, I do not know where any of the things you mention offer significant impacts into our economy. I'm not saying these are bad economic ideas, I'm more suggesting that they are of almost no consequence (GDP-wise) to the US economy. And I'd argue that some of the things you mentioned could possibly have negative growth effects.

The debt and deficit, as you allude to, is a massive problem in the somewhat near future. It would take very significant GDP growth to buy us time on that issue.

Hahaha:

http://www.forexlive.com/104806/all/latest-rumor

!!

don, those are fair points and questions. i base my optimism on a raft of articles i was reading at the time. i'll dig them up later and link them. btw, my point on financial reform wasn't that it will cause the economy to grow, just that it will help manage and avoid future crises. my point on cap-and-trade is that the warrant market would create a need for experts, and thus a separate industry (similar to how the salary cap in pro sports leagues created an industry for "capologists"), tho i realize cap-and-trade might also have an inhibiting impact -- short-term, at least -- on growth. the green economy point is based, iirc, on a paul krugman article. again, i'll see if i can dig it up.

also, the cap-and-trade market will throw off other work (markets need market-makers).

no need to dig up links, really, unless the things you brought up will increase GDP. The things you noted seem more elements of political optimism, which is fine. No need to even debate the possible positive or negative effects of new regulation or programs like cap-and-trade unless you're pretty sure that economic growth will result. It may, but I don't think anyone thinks it will be significant.

I just don't see any fundamentals that are improving at consequential levels, and I don't see any good metrics forecast either. The housing market is still very shitty, the commercial real estate market is a disaster, the vast majority of states are broke, unemployment is dismal, we are adding major entitlement spending, reducing entitlement spending--even in the key areas of HCR--is far from a done deal, our major entitlement obligations are frightening, manufacturing jobs have been shit for years and show no signs of recovery (our gains in manufacturing have mainly come from productivity), our wartime spending is continuing, bringing home troops to a weak economy is scary, the cumulative effects of the past recession are largely unknown, and a handful of other things are keeping me not only pessimistic, but kind of frightened. But maybe that's just me, because I have employees and three kids to worry about.

i hear you. i have employees, and one kid, to worry about.

let's not turn this thread into an employees and kids contest

i have 0 employees and 0 kids. i win

ps I have 90 employees and 14 (afaik) kids so I think I am worried about the economy a little more than you guys

i have already conceded the "kid-count" contest.

iatee, you are an entrepreneurial force-of-nature

also a nonstop impregnation machine

it's really easy to have kids when you have that many employees tbh

but I just worry about the economy so much

so much

you're doing all you can.

keep your chin-up. remember: When the world says, "Give up," Hope whispers, "Try it one more time."

bonely guy just thinking baout cha-ching$

There are signs that a trade order error might have helped cause the brief spike down in prices today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6455ZG20100506

IT IS A CONSPIRACY.

i blame the tri-lateral comm'n

Found out two brothers from high school apparently became solo traders or day traders or something via their OH FUCK OH FUCK OH FUCK Facebook updates. And they had such promise as human beings.

today's day-traders are tomorrow's chapter 13 petitioners.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_djgssszshgM/S-FkRO566BI/AAAAAAAABJA/EqiF8n8HDyM/s1600/Budget_2020.png

how does that differ from today's spending breakdown?

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://digitivity.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/death-and-taxes-poster-512x339.png&imgrefurl=http://digitivity.org/868/visualizing-federal-spending-the-federal-budget-in-one-poster&usg=__W7B06eidberUXZjEFS37ReHkm4I=&h=339&w=512&sz=246&hl=en&start=1&sig2=ABMBV_Y701a-N3Cowyl9pA&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=5lkLekOxNeqaeM:&tbnh=87&tbnw=131&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfederal%2Bspending%2Bposter%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26tbs%3Disch:1&ei=-jHjS__QJoeqNs_z0bcC

oh wait, better: http://www.deathandtaxesposter.com/

ok maybe not :/

how does that differ from today's spending breakdown?

I assume the interest portion is larger in 2010 but don't know offhand. The entitlements are also a wildcard given that none of the proposed cuts in Medicare have passed, let alone their status each of the next ten years. Also, the interest payments could change given other economic conditions (inflation, deflation, changes in monetary/fiscal policy, etc.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppEJ8r7bQ2o

Get's good at 1.10.

SMH

i always wondered what happened to wolfman jack

ps I have 90 employees and 14 (afaik) kids so I think I am worried about the economy a little more than you guys

It's the "as far as I know" part that amuses me.

"American policies have the least redistributive effect of any first-world country on the planet"
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-schaller-socialism-20100518,0,454344,full.column
"What else would you expect from a relatively small, mildly redistributive government in a society where 'who's your daddy' matters more than it does in most of the rest of the first world?"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whats-ben-gonna-do

If the premise of that article is correct, that deflation is inevitable, then it makes a certain amount of sense. Lord knows, the implosion of mortgage-backed CDOs in late 2008 evaporated more than the few trillions that Bernanke has magically created to reflate the economy.

As I see it, we have already missed the chance to do what the logic of the doctrinaire free-marketers demanded we do, namely let the banking system collapse under the weight of its own accumulated greed and foolishness. This, of course, would have led to wreckage far beyond what anyone could accept. So, the purist free-market solution is already a non-starter.

Where we are today is only marginally better. We've bailed out the mega-banks and we've failed to make them pay the correct price. Now, one reason the banks were so eager to pay back their TARP obligations was to obfuscate what constituted that price, by making it appear that it was simply a matter of a few tens of billions of dollars. It wasn't. The correct price was re-regulation and a thorough housecleaning. Bad debts exposed and taken off the books as assets. Forced bankruptcy and new management. That was the correct course. It still is.

I hate to say it, but the Democrats hold the keys to the government and they could be doing the right things to solve this. They will be majorly to blame when their timidity and capitulation to the banks steers us into even more dire straits than we are in today.

would like to draw everyone's attention to this disturbing trend: http://christwire.org/2010/07/with-unemployment-benefits-extended-rates-of-domestic-masturbation-and-sodomy-are-poised-to-skyrocket/

i've been wondering a lot lately about the underlying problems with the economy (not the unemployment benefits/masturbation and sodomy-link). i was recently talking with a smart and accomplished friend of mine, who has been (somewhat by choice) out-of-work for a few years. he is somewhat sympathetic toward tea-partiers and survivalists; though, to be clear, he isn't part of either group. we saw a cnn story on survivalists storing canned goods, water and weapons. i asked "what exactly are they preparing for?" he said, basically, "idk, but these groups are full of guys who aren't bums. they want to work. years ago, they'd graduate high-school, and get a good job. now they can't. and they're angry and disoriented about it." i guess all that's obvious, but as i say, it got me wondering.

when the economy has legitimately boomed in the past, it was supported by one or more big industries, e.g., steel, coal, automobile-manufacturing. but many of those jobs have been shifted outside the united states or been eliminated through technological developments (indeed, whole industries have withered). so what can take their place, creating a sustainable future for the group my friend mentions? the group that isn't going to college, but wants to work. i've said before that i think -- maybe hope -- that green technology and energy, smart cars, and other emerging technology might fill this gap. my uncle thinks that there's no reason we can't thrive in the medical research and technology areas.

anyway, obviously i have no conclusive answers. i don't believe the answer, or the right attitude, is to say "we're in inevitable decline." but i wonder what planning the administration has done to try and drive the economy to where it really needs to go (instead of a stopgap solution).

MAYBE I SHOULDN'T HAVE WATCHED ALL THOSE ALEX JONES AS THE JOKER VIDEO CLIPS THIS EVENING.

Just maybe!

But the question is an intelligent one regardless.

why is the us bureau of labor statistics monitoring my masturbation

http://i30.tinypic.com/29f6yoy.jpg

I've been wondering what our government has been doing to help our economy as well. And I'm not just saying this because I'm a republican because I ain't a republican. But all I hear is doom and gloom for our economic future. Even the CBO is pumping out gloomy info and they tend to have slightly more optimistic predictions

daniel esq I have been wondering the same thing lately and have come to pretty much the same conclusions. what's a blue collar guy gonna do in a world like this?

in some ways i think the administration had it exactly right: large-scale infrastructure projects and research grants -- even financed by foreign debt -- is a great means of jump-starting the economy short term. it can create many jobs at once, putting people into useful positions (e.g., america's roads and highways were badly in need of repair), which will pump funds bottom-up, leading to more taxable income. and i still suspect the impact of those projects has yet to be felt. but those are only temporary measures. you still need a thriving industry for future prosperity (and to create the wealth that will generate a need for other services in the community, which is where even more jobs would be created).

ford's introducing the volt. this is the kind of innovation that i think (maybe "hope" is the better word) that could revitalize the economy in a sustainable way. right now, the car will cost 41K, but they're just seeding the market. the price will come down soon.