Irish politics discussion thread

CSO Figures show drop of 11.3% from 2008 in GNP

First calls from a backbencher for Cowen to resign. Not news until FF TD's are actually calling for an election, tbh, and not good news until they're decimated in that election.

John Gormley, Green Party Minister and my boss, has asked people to turn off all of their electrical items for an hour at 8.30pm tomorrow.

He's giving a televised speech about it for Earth Hour. Televised. At 8.30pm tomorrow.

NAMA day tomorrow guy. ready for the banks and developers to get the savage valuation of their assets expected?

what, no?

I know I'm talking in an empty room here for the most part, but if the unions buy this deal, on the details I've heard so far, I will fry my hat in a little butter, shallot and nutmeg and consume it with a wilted spinach side.

But they worked through the night to get this deal! Funny letter in the Irish Times today suggesting talks shd start in the morning instead of after lunch...

Unions- We don't want any more pay cuts.

Govt- Ok. We can't guarantee that though. We need you to agree to everything we ask- unconditionally, though.

Unions- Sound.

I don't even disagree with the reforms, tbh, but in terms of what the unions said they were seeking they've come out with fuck all.

I expect the details to maybe be a little sharper than what's posted above. But then again maybe not.

NAMA day starts with a bang!

Unions & govt agree deal

Quinn Insurance go into administration

I mean that last one is without warning, at the request of the financial regulator, and is huge news.

Why am I in a union again?

ha just mailed a fellow public sector friend asking him if he knew what qualifications you needed to become a union negotiator.

god help the dude if he plays poker.

fuckin shambolic. the govt could have come up with this 'compromise' on their own, except for two aspects- no public-service only pay cuts until 2014, and those under 35k to receive priority in the no-doubt-imaginary pay review of spring 2011.

and the final clause will wipe even those out, because everyone knows full well that the 'unexpected' deterioration in the exchequer is a goddamned fucking certainty.

btw, those of you not in public sector unions- 'the details' just came out.

This morning, the Cabinet was briefed by the Minister for Finance, NAMA and the Financial Regulator on the details of the impaired loan and recapitalisation schemes to be unveiled this afternoon.

A formal decision of the Cabinet will initiate the transfer of loans from the banks and building societies to NAMA.

At 4.30pm NAMA is expected to confirm the transfer of the first tranche of loans from Irish Nationwide and EBS and will give details of the discount it has applied to these loans.

It will also set out the discounts to be applied to the loans that will shortly transfer from Bank of Ireland, AIB and Anglo Irish Bank.

These are understood to be well in excess of the 30% estimated by the Government last year.

motherfuckers motherfuckers motherfuckers

16bn NBV (lols) worth of loans transferred for 8.5bn.

Almost sounds like good value, until you ask whether they're actually worth anything like 8.5bn- it's secured by 5bn worth of assets, the majority of those assets are .......
..........
..........

(wait for it)

.............
.............

LAND

oh good grief i'm fucking emigrating.

^^^^^^^^^

ok i dont really get any of this really but that last post sounds pretty scary d.

NAMA isn't turning out as badly as I first feared, actually. First hurdle cleared- we took a lot of bad loans from the banks, essentially, so that they could basically start again without those bad loans screwing up their balance sheets.

The good news is that we haven't overpaid as much as I'd feared. They had to take a 47% hit on average on today's loans.

The next step is now the crucial part- within 31 days anyone that owes money to NAMA will have to present a business plan for repayment. I have real doubts as to FF's ability to chase this aggressively, but as I've said a pleasant enough surprise today, despite my earlier post (was having a bad day besides with the union sellout).

It's up to the members of the various public sector unions to decide that this deal is acceptable or not. If a private sector firm offered terms like it to their employees backed by 'agree or else' terminology the media would be up in arms. Particularly if the financial situation the firm found itself in was as a result of mismanagement by the very executives arranging the threats/ultimatums.

So much for the protected public sector and their guaranteed contracts, eh?

The public sector, at the end of this crow's feast, will have become a minimum wage occupation at entry level.

Maybe that's a good thing, I don't know. Everyone else seems to think so.

Personally, and specifically relating to this 'deal'- I doubt very much that there is anything better on the horizon (on the day that the empty headed experts predict that we're coming to the end of the recession, mind you! As if!), but I still refuse to vote in favour of this deal.

It was negotiated in bad faith by a union team with more in common with the people opposite them at the fancy Croke Park meeting room table than the people they are paid (and paid well, without the pay cuts the rest of us have suffered) to represent in negotiations.

This deal is not the result of any negotiation process. It's a stinkbomb sent down from above with no editing required from govt inception to release as a fait accompli. When the unions (rightly) reject it as nothing more than a FF wishlist with no guarantee and no compromise from their side, then the media and govt can once again depict us as a band of bloodsuckers out to drain the country's current account of money it doesn't have.

It was a no-lose scenario for FF from the moment our own negotiation team rolled over for them, and I once again commend their political know-how.

A vote against this deal is likely a vote for further media & indeed message board pillorying (did I just invent that word?) of the public sector. It's likely a vote for pay that a lot of us can ill afford to lose going on strike days (which will be cleverly organised by our own unions so that they won't have to pay us any allowances- bet on it). It's certainly going to give this govt carte blanche to cut pay and conditions further (hooray! ten euro per hour take-home, here I come!).

So be it.

This is the first time anyone has been able to register a democratic vote of protest against this government's deeds, failings and methods. I only wish that there was a 'good on ye' attitude from the onlookers, as opposed to the 'tow-the-line ye greedy feckers' attitude that's not exactly served us brilliantly so far.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0414/1224268309304.html

NAMA earning less than predicted. A week into operations.

Also confirms that unfinished developments outside of Dublin will be demolished if they can't be completed economically.

Who could have predicted it eh?

I'm in danger of turning this thread into a wasteland. Sorry!

Quinn Insurance accepts the appointment of an administrator.

not at all. but what can you say? that fintan o'toole article the other week saying there's nothing left to do except gtfo struck a depressing chord.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

Jesus that article is depressing. Come to london lads, barely anyone mentions the recession...and booze is cheap.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

This is certainly what I'm hoping for, but I'm pretty sure we all know where a public sector strike will lead. public strike ----> media slaughtering -----> no public support ------> faltering disaster -------> Govt/media triumph -------> futher cuts, this time gloves off.

It's almost like people have forgotten that there are private sector unions. It's certainly as if the public sector unions have forgotten about them as potential allies vs media/govt/big business.

labour party conference speech good

eh cowley i'm 50-50 on- great, great work locally and he's intelligent and capable. but i mean, letting himself get hijacked by those fucking clowns last time round lost him a lot of support and credibility

Worth reading, for all that it's in the increasingly cheerleadertastic Irish Times

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0420/1224268693609.html

Europe riding to the fucking rescue!

Well, that wasn't ideal last night but in principle I think mobilisation (if people are bothered enough) and 24 hour national strike would be nice.

Anyone got any other viewpoint on it? Low paid public sector non-homeowner smartasses may not be fully representative of the mood out there, I'm aware.

itt: dmac liveblogs about a country that's even more fucked than the cunts over there

it's turned into that, tbs, tbs.

we used to have irish here but i think i've run them all off.

oh, and we are really fucked, but in the long term the noises from the eu about peer-review of national finances is a v good thing with the quality of politician we're stuck with atm.

Low paid publicprivate sector non-homeowner smartasses may not be fully representative of the mood out there, I'm aware.

― Black IP's (darraghmac), Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:54 PM (1 hour ago)

not really the place to find a diversity of views

good luck, ireland

shd become a tax haven and get some of that newly-returning-UK-Tory-fans cash rolling in

just for perspective i work in a coffee shop that is v. expensive bc you get a fancy handmade chocolate free w/ your chocolate and we are the most popular coffee shop in town and i kinda feel like ppl just like to complain really.

It's true- there's plenty of money out there in the middle/upper middle earner brackets, and particularly where mortgages have been mainly covered already. That's why taxes need to SOAR in the next budget.

Govt holding in AIB rises to 18% as repayments due under last year's recapitalisation fall due, but are paid in shares instead.

That's why why taxes need to SOAR in the next budget.

The first thing that would happen, were the government foolish enough to do that, is that those who currently still have some disposable income really would tighten their purse strings. Which would put plax out of a job, sharpish.
If the seventies and eighties taught us anything, it's that you can't tax your way out of a recession. Or, put another way, that screwing the middle classes is counter-productive.
That's my reasonably well paid, private sector, homeowning smartass opinion, anyhow.

govt have more than demonstrated that they don't admit ownerhip of any of this recession, and it's quite clear that they're not intending to spend their way out of it.

given that their proposed public sector pay deal leaves pay untouched as a net spend, and the low corporation tax rate is sacred text fairly large income tax increases are the inevitability.

we're still a low tax economy, i can't see how else things are going go given stated intent on all other fronts. big further cuts in welfare/pensions, hikes in both tax rates, maybe a superhigh rate finally introduced.

ps if the 70's and 80's thought us anything (and it's quite clear they didn't) it's that popularist FF govts leave a hell of a hangover

pps: hi!

i promise that i have no problem w/ losing my job btw

^ this stands true for me too also. we are soldiers to the cause. if i lost my job i would sit outside the dail on a blanket throwing horseshoes at politicians.

me too also btw

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/67ae51e2-5e35-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html

Decent article from an outside perspective. Bit of the 'soundbite' about a lot of it, but they picked the right soundbites at least. Explains most of the mess and the causes in clear enough terms.

Morgan Kelly in the Irish Times today: Brace yourself-

"Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece.

On the face of it, Ireland’s debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland’s government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)

Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this debt quite quickly. However, in contrast to its inept handling of the banking crisis, the Government has taken reasonable steps to bring the deficit under control. If all goes to plan we should be looking at a debt of 85 to 90 per cent of GDP by the end of 2012.

This is quite large for a small economy, but it is manageable. Just about. What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the bank bailout.

We can gain a sobering perspective on the impossible disproportion between the bailout and our economic resources by looking at the US. The government there set aside $700 billion (€557 billion) to buy troubled bank assets, and the final cost to the American taxpayer is about $150 billion. These sound like, and are, astronomical numbers.

But when you translate from the leviathan that is America to the minnow that is Ireland, it would be equivalent to the Irish Government spending €7 billion on Nama, and eventually losing €1.5 billion in the process. Pocket change by our standards.

Instead, our Government has already committed itself to spend €70 billion (€40 billion on the National Asset Management Agency – Nama – and €30 billion on recapitalising banks), or half of the national income. That is 10 times per head of population the amount the US spent to rescue itself from its worst banking crisis since the Great Depression."

I enjoyed the ft article, thanks.

Trying to get my head around what this means in the simplest possible terms - do these figures mean c. €20k a head of extra taxation to get the public finances back to something like normal?

I think that's about the figure I've seen, but it being a current issue there's about 50 conflicting estimates.

At least it's being talked about. I think we think we'll get out of it with a couple of percent on VAT and civil servants taking shorter lunches.

just had a quick read of the 6.25bn savings osborne announced this am, and i think the next budget's due pretty tough so it's not like it's being ignored. it's probably that you're not as exposed as we are to every single facet of the crash- property, financial services and global investment are pretty much all we have, and we acted like it was all we'd ever need.

And indeed, anyone who suggested otherwise was told to shut up and stop talking down the economy.