PECOTA is out

though admittedly less in-depth

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

maybe if your team had a real farm system...

Their prospects "play a lot of games."

this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

Me too.

You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.

now that Sheehan is gone

OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?

end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.

CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

looks mostly the same i guess

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west

strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.

Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:
http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/

supposedly pecota is out.. again.

supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.

who's your team again? (sorry)

how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?

i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.

a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.

my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.

I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.

Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.

I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.

When do the Fangraphs projections come out?

those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282

tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee

not impossible, imho!

ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

has the mets @ 80 wins!

noted last week

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

'tis out

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

go bucs

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings