Ichiro/Sisler Watch!

what's most interesting to me at the moment is that tippet implies ichiro's speed on the basepaths more than makes up for his many infield singles presumably failing to advance runners the traditional 2 bases. i don't know about that, but it would seem that basic run metrics like EQR, VORP, or RC might end up with a pretty accurate estimation of ichiro's worth after all. (he's also said to create a further unmeasured ~5 runs due to his DP/GB rate, so they may indeed undershoot his worth)

here's where he places among fellow ALers:

EQR 2nd
EQA 10th
VORP 4th
RC 1st
RC/27 7th

reading over this thread i saw my BP anti-ichiro question, and while i can't answer it this http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3518 is a free roundtable discussion they posted today

joe sheehan prepares to set the tone but is quickly taken to task by mariners fan zumsteg and left pleading "gut feeling". we only get one "it's just cuz he hustles and ppl are suckers for that" comment and it might be sarcastic, tho i doubt it. there is a hilarious reply to sheehan's drivel here http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=1939

(sheehan does have a couple seeds for thought desperately trying to bud amidst all the bullshit but the unchecked acrimoniousness of that retort made me lol) (although that was probably because i inititally thought it was derek zumsteg himself, taking the gloves off after some kind of split!)

i was mistaken above, ichiro's in a tie for 2nd in AL VORP.

And I am curious, like Sheehan, to see if he can hit .420+ in several different months next year.

Jul 31: Ichiro belted a pair of home runs in the Mariners' 3-2 win over the Cleveland Indians Saturday, breaking Paul Waner's 75-year-old record for most hits in his first five major league seasons. He now has 1,059 career hits with 49 games still left on the schedule.

It took Waner 747 games to amass 1,057 hits from 1926-30. Ichiro has played in 737 big league contests to date.

based on his career averages, it seems like he should have broken that record about a month ago. what's going on this year?

Also, after last year, ANYTHING'S gonna be a disappointment!

Outlier anyone? Check today's Hardball Times for a great article on Ichiro's regression.

He has definitely lost a step or two speedwise. He flubbed a flyball yesterday, not too different from the one that got away last week.

His range on the flub (scored a single) looked feeble, like there was no doubt that a ball in semi-shallow right was a potential out (the A's fans were particularly shocked at the miscue). Ichiro got a bad jump, and the play was bookended by a particularly ungraceful finish (he inadvertantly kicked the ball into the infield after the flub).

Except he hasn't done it -- his SLG is down from last year, and is right in line with his career average. Sacrificing loads of BA and OBP in order to hit the ball in air more and drive a few more balls out of the park isn't making him more of a productive player, judging by the correlations between G/FB ratios and his BA.

Look, I don't think he's as good as he was last year. But neither is he ready for the scrap heap, either as a player or in the court of baseball-nerd public opinion. A lot of OMG SO AWESOME players were allowed to slip off after a stat-spike season and it was treated like "well that was predictable." Seems like people just want to go "haha told you he wasn't any good." I think he's also suffered from having one of the crappiest lineups in baseball behind him; what's the point of getting another 262 hits if there's no one to knock you in?

Who's called him 'substandard'? That'd be silly. Overhyped without a doubt.

He's one of those exciting, stylish players who's fun to watch (who the hell knows how he makes contact with some of those swings) but just... is... not... GREAT. (unless he hits .360)

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=430838

Doesn't change the fact that he's #1.

Okay so someone explain to me again why Ichiro wasn't always in CF?

1) Mike Cameron
2) He was a big baby about moving from RF

Heh well it's clearly not cuz he can't play the position.

it seems like he's always watching out about being hurt. it limits his range.

Uh his Zone Rating is really really good (.916) and he's made 50 plays OUTSIDE of his zone according to Hardball Times.

Back in the day he was very awed by Mike Cameron's defensive plays, I remember him praising MC very highly. I think he said at one point that he was the best player he ever played with (take that A-Rod!)

He never played with A-Rod though?

a-rod = adrian beltrod.

I didn't get to watch much of the game the other day, but I have to say, what I saw was awesome. You know, the one where Seattle was playing. Against some team. TBH I completely forget now. Anyway, Ichiro's up, hit a single grounder to the left (and basically STOPS the bat mid-swing when he realizes it's an off-speed pitch, too), 3rd baseman makes a spectacular diving play + throw and still doesn't beat Ichiro because the dude is amazing.

Then Ichiro steals second. Then Ichiro steals third. Then some dude hits a grounder to third, 3rd baseman makes a nice catch, looks at home and realizes he has NO chance of catching Ichiro, and trows to first for the out which he gets.

It's been a while since I've watched much baseball but I REALLY like watching Seattle. If I didn't hate their cap so much I would buy one! (I think I used to have one in the mid 90s, actually, but that was the mid 90s when navy and green were ok together, amirite?)

i won't buy another mariners cap until they do away with the teal. fuck that color.

alex, with his speed i think his range could be even wider. (but my thinking is more based on watching him than any statistical analysis)

wow this thread kinda makes me hate all of you, now i see why all the cool ppl left for I luv football