Moneyball

basically blows, but i'm a sucker for profiles.

by Gary Richards
Mercury News

Magical moments in life can pop up most unexpectedly.

Like on an airplane trip from Oakland to Chicago last December for my 13-year-old son, Matt, and my wife, Jan.

The seat next to Matt was empty, the last one on the flight. The plane was about to take off when a young man wearing a baseball hat, his wrist clearly healing from some injury, dashed down the aisle, asking if he could take the vacant seat.

As they settled in for the four-hour trip, Jan asked what happened to his hand. He said he got hit by a pitch. It didn't look like a rec league injury, so she asked more about it. ``It happened in spring training,'' he said.

``Oh, really? Who do you play for?'' she replied.

``The A's,'' said the young guy with the engaging smile.

His name: ``Nick Swisher. My dad, Steve, played for the Cubs for a few years.''

Matt sat silently. Later, he would say: ``Mom, when he said his name, my spine froze.''

Matt had devoured ``Moneyball,'' the book on the A's the year after they drafted Swisher. For nearly four hours, they talked baseball, about Nick's upbringing as the son of a big leaguer, more baseball, and his love for his grandmother who would pass away this summer.

They were like two kids, talking about their passion for the game. Only one had just graduated from Little League, and the other had just joined the big leagues.

Matt asked what time players got to the park for a night game. Nick said around midafternoon. They would hit, field and stretch, then head back to the clubhouse.

``Then guess what,'' Nick said. ``You ought to see the neat video games we play.''

For Matt, that plane ride was Christmas.

But the story gets better.

We went early to a game in June and headed toward the A's dugout. Matt wanted to say hi to Swisher. I feared Nick might not remember him. Just before the first pitch, Swisher started out of the dugout. ``Nick!'' Matt yelled.

Swisher began an obligatory wave, then spotted Matt. A big grin came over the face of the rookie right fielder, who cheerfully trotted over and chatted with the boy he remembered.

A few nights later, our daughter, Anne, called from the restaurant in Berkeley where she worked and said Swisher would be there for a radio show. Did Matt want to come?

For nearly half an hour, the two chatted like the pals they had become, Swisher excitedly telling his girlfriend, ``This is the kid from the airplane, the one I told you about!''

I came later to pick Matt up, and over the din of the crowd I whispered to Swisher, ``You have made a young boy very happy.''

And a Mom and Dad, too.

what teams players are on average underpaid? i got twins, indians, marlins (but not d-rays or royals)(trim them payrolls boys! trim that fat!), who else?

Albert Pujols
1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Salary: $14,000,000
Moneyball Salary: $24,563,308

Brad Thompson
P, St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Salary: $334,000
Moneyball Salary: $8,550,189

Adam Wainwright
P, St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Salary: $327,000
Moneyball Salary: $8,526,061

A) wonder why Brad Thompson is worth as much as Adam Wainwright?
B) wonder who on earth would pay closer salaries for middle relief?

where are they now

Hey this reminds me, can someone repost the link to that page with a fancy chart that links a team's performance to its salary?

-- INSANE CLOWN FOSSE (Adrian Langston), Monday, June 12, 2006 8:46 PM (2 years ago) Bookmark Link

i found that fancy fuccn chart btw

http://benfry.com/salaryper/index.html

whoa that is awesome

how the fuck is CHI above STL

by virtue of a better record? by having a higher team salary?

i don't understand the question.

The Bosox have "the Greek God of Walks," don't they? I wanna see him play!!

-- Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 01:58 (4 years ago) Link
Not at Bill Mueller's expense I hope!

-- Leee Majors (Leee), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 22:01 (4 years ago)

hahahahahahaha

funny. on an o's bb i post on, someone has a sig "nick markakis: the REAL greek god of walks."

(youkilis is romanian)

i found that fancy fuccn chart btw

http://benfry.com/salaryper/index.html

<3 the Rays!!!

The chart's nifty but active player salary is a poor indicator of true franchise roi, as it omits dead weight salaries, deferred compensation, bonus, etc.

http://www.azsnakepit.com/2008/6/16/553164/interesting-statistics#comments

The Diamondbacks are paying Russ Ortiz $8M!?!?! Jesus that's awful.

Can you imagine how depressing that would be? The Dbacks people call him the Huge Manatee.

That's why salary charts are kind of misleading.

Well that's why this particular chart is misleading. You could make one at the end of the year that calculated bonuses and debited salary you took on or sloughed off, I guess.

You could have signed eight Mark Priors having season-ending surgery for the price of one Manatee.

Well "misleading" is a bit strong. It is a good indicator of how the paid employees who are actually working are performing. But it probably does not indicate which franchises are spending wisely or anything like that.

supposedly beane is prepared to spend $4M plus on 16 year old superfreak pitcher michael inoa - previous bonus baby record for a pitcher was a little over 1 mil i believe

amazing how much baseball hasa changed in 5 years

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/06/gm-trade-histor.html

Beane doesn't like to spend money on high school players, only jr. high school players.

This Inoa kid is a freak apparently.

"amazing how much baseball hasa changed in 5 years"

I assume you are talking about how well off it is financially, not some change in Beane's modus operandi (which hasn't really changed.)

Ricciardi should really not pick up the phone when Beane calls.

hmm well its certainly evidence that his stubbornness hasnt changed (in that hes obv sticking to his guns hell/high water) - but i do think the A's being a frontrunner for the most expensive bonus baby ever is pretty interesting, esp considering he's a fireballing scouts dream who'd be a soph. in HS right now

the reds of all teams have been the biggest players on the intl front this year - i think youre right that it is mostly about the money, but still interesting stuff

Smart teams are def. realizing that spending money on Latin American talent can basically = getting a top draft pick without having to be Kansas City or Washington. Worth a couple of million dollars I think (less than Rick Porcello got hah!)

You could make one at the end of the year that calculated bonuses and debited salary you took on or sloughed off, I guess.

-- Alex in SF, Friday, June 27, 2008 11:59 AM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Link

Maybe you could, actually. It would probably be pretty cumbersome to gather the empirical data but it's probably out there.

Anyway, all the benfry chart is trying to do is translate current salary dollars into wins (as opposed to profit). Moneyball focused on the art of winning, not the art of making money.

I suppose for that you'd read Vince Genarro.

right, latin america def was (before this year) the latest obvious area of market inefficiency ripe for exploitation - theres no doubt a lot of those kids were way way undervalued

totally predictable tho, makes you realize how relevant the book still is - the people running this game are idiots!

Chart that calculated bonuses and debited salary took on or sloughed off:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/01/payroll_efficie.php

Word on the street is Inoa is the A's:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266411.html

fancy fuccn chart is pretty but would be more useful w/ slopes!

"Slopes"? I thought this was ILBB? Instead it's just a bunch of nerds.

i think he was using a slur against ur ppl leee :(

anyway, so I can't back up the veracity of this, but I read this thing where Inoa was set to sign with the Yankees for $2.7 million - and then he hired his jew agent Andy Katz, who raised the price to a $3.5 million minimum. NY went "F THAT."

moral of the story: always hire a http://209.85.62.26/12257/100/emo/jewmoney.gif agent

That doesn't make any sense as a moral to the story.

moral of the story: get it in writing (and avoid controversial GIFs)

Several scouts have told BA that Inoa is a once-in-a-generation talent, thanks to his 6-foot-7, 210-pound frame, athletic bloodlines and present stuff.

^^^^^ THIS SHOULD BE UP NEAR THE TOP OF THE INVERTED PYRAMID THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

lol "bloodlines" sounds like they're talking about a horse

cankles has a point!

fukudome = too many asians on the internets

-- bnw

Future Shock
Michel Inoa 101

by Kevin Goldstein

What Is His Name? Michel Inoa. The first name has a French pronunciation: mee-SHELL.

Who Is He? A 16-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. He's six-foot-seven and somewhere just over 200 pounds.

What's So Good About Him That Someone Would Pay $4.25 million? Based on numerous discussions with scouts, the answer is... pretty much everything. "I only got a two-inning look, but those two innings will not be erased from my memory any time soon," said one scouting official. "Right now he's in the low 90s, with the potential for a plus breaking ball, the ability to throw strikes, and a clean arm action." At some showcase events, Inoa also threw a split-fingered fastball described as "downright dirty." Another pro scout also noted his outstanding mechanics: "He's six-foot-seven and so young, you'd think he'd have a lot of moving parts, but that's just not the case. It sounds weird, but if you can say a kid that big has a compact delivery, I would. He has a medium leg kick and a quick arm. It suddenly comes out of his hand and it's friggin' 94." Another veteran scouting director called Inoa "the model of what you are looking for if you are evaluating young arms. It's a very nice combination of project and ‘now' stuff, which you just don't find down there."

So There Has To Be At Least Some Negatives Here, Right? Not really. Most of the questions come with the risk involved because of his age. Obviously, there is a long distance between Michel Inoa the Dominican wunderkind and Michel Inoa the big league pitcher. Specific criticisms of him from the experts border on nitpicking. "He needs to work on the little things, like holding runners on base," noted one scout. "But that's because nobody has reached base against him." Another international scout had some concerns about his body and arm speed. "He has a thin-boned frame, and he's not going to put on a bunch of weight," said the evaluator. "So I guess there is some question about the body type holding up. His arm is so quick, and for that body type you do wonder a bit about it being too fast for his body and putting strain on the joints." A third scout had no real concerns, which is amazing for a 16-year-old, adding, "Look, if he doesn't make it, it's because he got hurt or something else out of Oakland's control—it's certainly not going to be because he sucks."

An additional question involves his lack of experience, since Inoa has so far only pitched at highly controlled events that were arranged for scouts. "When you think of even these 18-year-old kids we draft," said one front office official, "We've seen them for years in real games, and we've seen them in showcases against the top talent in the country. With Inoa, we just haven't seen him in a true competitive environment."

How Historic Is His Talent? In numerous discussions with scouts and front office officials, Inoa is almost universally seen as the best pitching prospect to come out of the Dominican. If you spread the argument out to include all of Latin America, some say that Felix Hernandez was better at the same age. One official with decades of experience said, "I've been doing this a very long time—(Josh) Beckett was better at 16 because he threw harder and had that monster curve; (Rick) Porcello was better at 16 for the same reasons; as was Felix. Every other 16-year-old I've seen—this guy (Inoa) is better than them." Another echoed similar sentiments. "I've been going to high school showcases like the Area Code games for years," he said. "And I've never seen anything like this."

But $4.25 Million? That's Kind Of Crazy, Right? Yes and no. Welcome to the new economy when it comes to international talent. "I mean, it's crazy for down there, but we knew the money would be crazy this year," said one scout. "Clubs are throwing around lots of money down there now—and paying three-to-five hundred thousand for frankly some pretty mediocre talent." With the big inflation taking place, record-breaking money for Inoa seemed almost inevitable. "I knew the second I saw him that he'd get a shit-ton of money," continued the scout.

In the bigger scheme of things, is $4.25 million really that much, even with market inflation and the money nearly doubling the previous record bonus for a non-Cuban Latin American signee? One scout put it into better perspective. "That's what? A top-three pick in the draft? I'd have no problem giving him that kind of money. After seeing him, he's worth what Oakland is paying in my mind." A second scouting official agreed. "It might be insane to give anyone that kind of money, but I certainly understand it, and in some ways it makes sense," he said. "Because if you hit on him, he's going to be worth tens of millions for the six years you have him under control. It's a lot of money, and it might whiff, because we all know how pitching prospects are, but $4.25 million is not going to put any organization under, and $4.25 million for this guy shouldn't cost anyone their job."

That said, not all see the signing as a sound decision. "It's just too crazy for me," said another front office official. "I think there is a difference between a kid at 16 who we've barely seen, and a kid at 18 who we've seen a lot of. There's so much that can go wrong—he certainly has the talent—but the rest is a huge crapshoot."

Another factor leading to more money being spent in Latin America of late is that there is no slotting system in place, nor does Major League Baseball seem to have any real interest in the bonuses being doled out. "Don't underrate that at all," said one team official. "You can call this all a market correction or adjustment or whatever you want, but at the same time, you don't have to deal with all the BS from MLB with these kids. You don't get a call saying you can't sign him, you don't have them calling your owner and telling him that what you are doing is breaking the system—you just write the check and sign the kid."

So How Fast Can He Get To The Big Leagues? With the unavoidable comparisons to Felix Hernandez, the "king" of Latin American pitching prospects, the question comes up often. Could he be the kind of player who reaches the big leagues as a teenager? Here, the opinions vary wildly. "I'm not sure, but he's certainly not going to waste a lot of time in the Dominican Leagues," said one scout. "He could get Low-A hitters out right now. One thing that really stood out for me is that he has a plan to attack hitters. Down there all he needs is 92-94, but he has a plan, and that factors into it and shows surprising maturity." Another scout was even more optimistic. "In the big leagues by 19? I'd say yes, it could happen, but that adjustment period is hard to predict," said a scouting official. "Inoa's a different animal, but look at a guy like Jeremy Bonderman. One year he's at Pasco High School in southeast Washington, the next year he's doing well in the California League and then he's in the majors." Not everyone agree that he'd move that quickly, nor should he necessarily. "Someone said he could get Low-A hitters out?" asked a team official. "I agree with that—he's going to chew up the Midwest League. He's going to throw strike one and he'll demolish kids with just that fastball. But at Hi-A and Double-A there will need to be some adjustment. The secondary stuff, the feel, the pitchability, those all have to come and it might take a bit."

Where Does He Rank As A Prospect In The Oakland System? This could be an article in itself, where one talks about ranking philosophy, but for me, he's their No. 1. The two strongest competitors for the title would be Double-A pitchers Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, and while both are very good prospects, neither comes close to Inoa's ceiling. It's too early to think about Top 100 rankings, but it's easy to see him in the upper third come January.

Coming Soon: More on Inoa, including the A's take on what to do with him now that he's in the fold.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

brad pitt to star in moneyball film