The very real possibility that vinyl will outlive CD - T or F?

Sure, vinyl shows big growth percentages, but it's growing from an extremely small base. As of Oct. 28, vinyl albums have scanned 766,000 units—up 22.4% from the 612,000 units scanned in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. What's more, vinyl is outselling the cassette album, which has scanned 247,000 units year to date, by a little more than 3-to-1. But the vinyl album still consists of only 0.02% of total album sales. In contrast, digital sales are now 10.7% of album sales and increasing.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

http://foetusized.org/cdrot.html

Yeah I recently threw away all my books, plus my couch. Too heavy!

never underestimate the appeal of a "physical object". i'll give you three examples from the closet:

-- scott seward, Monday, November 19, 2007 8:23 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

this is a goofy thread, so here's a goofy story. shit, i think i even told it to 69 when i met him, i probably sound like a windbag here.

moving apartments, we wanted to lighten the load and get some cash. sold a bunch of unwanted records and books. anth0ny from rad1o 4 was there rifling through piles of my records, pulling stuff for himself and his store. then this stylish woman in her twenties comes by and takes a look at a few titles and freaks out at me:

"OMG, you're selling these Bob Marley records for $5 each? You should be selling them for like.. $25 each at least!"

"Well, I'll tell you what, take all 6 for $20 or make me an offer, since I can see you're pretty excited to find them."

"Oh wow! But, but.. but I don't have a turntable.."

as she walked away, anth0ny just looked up and shook his head in disgust.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

This is a very important point.

I bet everyone here who lives in a medium/ big city will tell you that the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years - sure, CDs are still what most people buy, but that market is spread over supermarkets, video rental stores and Amazon; record shops don't get the 6 records a year guy anymore. I bet, of the total music spend of people who spend more than ¢1000 or its euro/ sterling/ yen equivalent a year breaks down in a much different way in terms of media, especially if you factor in second hand sales

thats a thousand bucksa year on music -

Has anyone actually come across a deteriorated original CD?

Since I worked @ the used record store, mid-late '80's, I've probably had over 1000 CDs through my hands, I can still name the three ones that deteriorated:

Todd Rundgren "Something-Anything" (castle reissue)
REM "Green"
Popol Vuh "For you and Me"

My oldest ones - "Liege & Lief", a Dvorak compilation and a couple of Darling Buds singles - still play great.

I like the format loads, though I think its potential for awesome sound quality been ill-used by record companies, many early ones being pressed from substandard/unsuitable tapes - listening copies, vinyl-mastered and so on - in a hurry to cash in on the CD reissue boom ASAP, more recent ones being flatline-mastered. It's a shame. I wish the format would last for ever and ever, but it obviously isn't going to. If a lossless format like .flac were to become prevalent, I'd be more into uh yer non-physical music format. I still like CDs though.

For me this is kind of academic in a way, probably 90% of the msuic I listen to (@ work) is on Youtube FFS, and that sounds like ass is perfectly tailored to computer speakers.

i think my oldest cd is 'achtung baby' and it still plays fine, though i think the last time i looked at it the playing surface appeared to be slightly mottled.

I bet everyone here who lives in a medium/ big city will tell you that the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years - sure, CDs are still what most people buy, but that market is spread over supermarkets, video rental stores and Amazon; record shops don't get the 6 records a year guy anymore. I bet, of the total music spend of people who spend more than ¢1000 or its euro/ sterling/ yen equivalent a year breaks down in a much different way in terms of media, especially if you factor in second hand sales

-- sonofstan, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 10:23 AM (Tuesday, November 20, 2007 10:23 AM) Bookmark Link

Not everyone lives in a big city, though. As far as I know, in the northern suburbs of Seattle, there are exactly zero stores you can walk into and buy a new record, whereas there are dozens you can walk into and buy a new cd, although very few of them are actually music stores.

(I should add that I would happily be proven wrong.)

seattle's a medium-sized city, there has to be places where you can buy vinyl

the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years

this is not the case in SF, at least not in Amoeba, which seems to be stocking fewer "rock" records, but roughly the same amount of hip-hop, dance, and jazz vinyl.

there are a handful of other specialty shops though, that stock great vinyl (Aquarius, Open Mind, Grooves, etc.)

seattle's a medium-sized city, there has to be places where you can buy vinyl

-- Mark Clemente, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 11:09 AM (Tuesday, November 20, 2007 11:09 AM) Bookmark Link

In Seattle, yes, but I didn't say you can't buy records in Seattle. Reread my last post.

ah yes

i can't be bothered to read this thread but yeah guys people who still buy vinyl need a heavy kick to the crotch, right?

Naw, just skot.

Not everyone lives in a big city, though. As far as I know, in the northern suburbs of Seattle, there are exactly zero stores you can walk into and buy a new record, whereas there are dozens you can walk into and buy a new cd, although very few of them are actually music stores

xpost

Yeah, I think record stores - even in cities - are endangered species; big chains just as much as the little guys. It's only the young and/or obsessive that go to shops anymore.

REM "Green"

Interesting... I've had trouble with mine, too. I've have older cd's that seem fine though.

I'd say, actually, it's only the old and/or obsessive. My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all. She downloads all her music illegally.

xp

yeah, kids in general are not buying music in any format.

Yeah, the same people who don't download are probably more comfortable going to a record store than ordering online. This is only a matter of time, though.

i like the idea of REM cds rotting :D

DG otm.

My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all.

I should amend this to cds, or records, or mp3s, or, or, or...

more anecdotal evidence:

I am on vacation in my home town in Virginia, there are three places here that carry new/used vinyl. I haven't been here in two years. The first place I checked out had moved all of their new vinyl to a more prominent location near the front of the store, but the amount was about the same. The next place had tons more used vinyl than before and the guy said sales had increased to the point that he now sells turntables. And I guarantee you he doesn't report to Soundscan either.

Is it a bad sign that the latest Vinyl Anachronist column reads like a suicide note?

man i wish i thought sacd was going to make it, i hear great things

xpost: Well, there's this:

I'm not going to worry about future generations embracing the LP and the turntable. (They seem to be doing that on their own, remarkably enough.)

WISHFUL THINKING.

My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all.

I should amend this to cds, or records, or mp3s, or, or, or..

check - 18 yo daughter with a full MP3 player, spends maybe €50 on music if that

xpost

€50 a year...

i don't even care that much about it. if sacd and/or digital playback gets great, then fine...but for me, i get the most bang for my buck -- sound quality-wise -- from vinyl and a turntable. i don't think that's romantic or irrational at all.

for about $1000 i got a great, small speaker, amp, and turntable setup that sounds amazing and to my ears better than cd or mp3. i realize that if i dropped like 10Gs or something i could probably get server or whatever and do flac but it sounds like too much work to me.

Most people aren't going to spend a thousand dollars on a setup.

my gf just got a new CD/turntable/radio one-piece stereo for $70. It sounds better than her old CD boombox thing. They are on sale at B!-Mart, to my knowledge the first cheap new turntable in years that has been available in big box stores. Still more anecdotal evidence...

Most people aren't going to spend a thousand dollars on a setup.

Not in one go, maybe, but that's what cool about separates - upgrade one bit at a time (that's what's shit too of course - it don't stop)

..... but you have a point Rev. - time was when any young couple with pretensions to being cultured would have a decent stereo set up as part of the living room furniture; now it its home cinema, with an ipod docking yoke as the sole concession to the idea of public music

xp

Would you say music has become something more private for most people then? Something relegated to earbuds and enjoyed in solitude?

Definitely - earbuds and driving or on computer speakers/ headphones while working much more than sitting down and listening while doing nothing else.

People doubting the young hipster crowd's interest in vinyl are so wrong! I live in a remarkably unhip college town, and even here, everyone who considers themself really "into" music has a turntable and thinks its cool to buy vinyl. I don't know anyone who buys cds (besides blank ones by the 50-pack.) Illegal MP3s for most new stuff, and vinyl for the fuzzy-happy-collecting feeling (don't underestimate the draw of that feeling.)

Yeah, most teenagers still haven't touched a turntable, but CDs are just disposable trash used for car-listening, not much else. They're waning in popularity whereas vinyl is on the rise. I think vinyl is definitely sticking around, at least, I'm not sure what what'll happen to the CD market.

I'm not doubting the young hipster crowd's vinyl enthusiasm, I'm doubting everyone else's.

The Garden State effect. Seriously (kinda). I, embarassingly, know of two people who bought turntables after seeing Natalie Portman's room in that movie.

everyone who considers themself really "into" music has a turntable and thinks its cool to buy vinyl.

hence the need for a kick in the balls

iPOD PEOPLE

I don't know why you feel it necessarily to kick people in the balls for wanting to own a physical object that represents the music they love.

you sound like you need one too

the soundscan stats count only vinyl LPs sold in soundscan locations. the amount of 12"s and other singles/EPs/underground albums that are sold in places that dont report to soundscan has to be double those figures. plus any used vinyl shops! alot of records still get sold, and it will continue to happen. i dont see that ever ending, people will still be making vinyl as well, even if on a small basis. compare that to CDs which will have no advantage compared to a higher resolution digital file, i just dont see why people would keep making them.

there will be vinyl as long as pressing plants can afford to stay in business. there will be pressing plants as long as there are a billion suburban emo bands who want to put out a 7".

(well, you know what i mean.)

the big difference, which someone must have pointed out already, is that anyone can make a CD. very very few people can make an LP. things that anyone can make will probably outlive things that practically no one can make.

xpost

PEOPLE CAN'T DELETE RECORDS
PEOPLE DON'T BUY USED MP3S