Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays

Up 4-1, bottom of the ninth, two out, man on second, Royals come back to win 5-4. The Kingdom of .500 recedes.

Osuna picked a ripe time to have an existential crisis.

He's been doing so well. I'm really surprised by this.

I don't mean to make light of the situation, but could there be a worse match in sports than an anxiety-ridden closer? You've got to have ice water in your veins to do that job.

He said he feels fine on the field though. I think he's struggling with everything else in his life.

Well, he did good today.

Grilli DFA'd

vlad jr and bichette both invited to the futures game

after playing for brazil in the wbc, bichette will be on the us team in miami

Not that this year's Jays deserve such stature, but:

1978's famous "Boston Massacre," as the Yankees swept and caught the Red Sox in early September: 15-3, 13-2, 7-0, and 7-4, for a cumulative score of 42-9.

2017 version, still two innings to go: 7-4, 7-1, 15-1 = 29-6.

Smoak is the asg starting 1B!

nice

Osuna got off to a terrible start this year--he gave up runs in four of his first six appearances--but in 30 games since his ERA's under 1.00, and for the season his K/BB ratio is up in Jansen/Kimbrel territory, 47-3.

ya, he's moved into 4th on the blue jays save streak record (with 21 or 22)

clem yr man is up and doing okay but needs to throw strikes

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=647332#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

Thanks. I had stopped checking on him at some point, so I'm glad he's healthy again.

Had another interesting guy on the same team: Romar Subban, P.K.'s cousin.

http://www.mississauga.com/sports-story/5249418-subban-making-a-name-in-basketball/

He was a great athlete, not a great baseball player, but he was an okay hitter and made a key catch in the final inning of the championship game. These guys are all finished high school now, so I'll post the team picture.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/huttonville.JPG

Darren's right in the center of the back row; Romar's two down from me on the left. The guy between Darren and Romar was pretty much as good as Darren back then and was actually the MVP of the tournament

"Shred" - what a great baseball name.

Darren "Kick-Ass Guitar Solo" Shred

also: i was at the game today. but on the bright side, i did land a bobblehead.

Baseball Reference has Stroman tied for the league-lead among pitchers in WAR, which at best seems overly generous, even in view of his mediocre team, and at worst ridiculous--both he and Vargas are ahead of Sale. He's 12th on Fangraphs.

honestly didn't even realize how well his season was going until a few days ago. it doesn't *feel* like he's pitched as well as his WAR would suggest.

Just doesn't compute. They've got Stroman ahead of Sale, Kershaw, Kluber, everyone except Scherzer.

Stroman - 112.1 IP, 139 ERA+, 3.21 K/BB, 1.264 WHIP, 3.88 FIP
Sale - 127.2 IP, 168 ERA+, 8.09 K/BB, 0.901 WHIP, 2.09 FIP
Kershaw - 132.1 IP, 189 ERA+, 7.23 K/BB, 0.877 WHIP, 3.01 FIP
Kluber - 93.1 IP, 170 ERA+, 5.13 K/BB, 0.986 WHIP, 2.43 FIP

Baffling. Except for Kluber's injury-related low IP, there's not a single category where Stroman doesn't finish last. What is the basis for this? What else is there that I'm missing?

it does seem like a bizarre result!

if i had to guess, maybe it comes down a combo of 1) bad TOR defense and 2) Stroman facing above-average opponents and/or in disadvantageous parks? the reason i say that is looking at the list of differences between the B-R and fangraphs WAR models, one of the key differences is that B-R takes the pitcher's team's defense while fangraphs does not. Toronto ranks near the bottom of team defense this year, while Sale's Red Sox are at the top with Kershaw's Dodgers not that far behind.

One of the other differences is that while both B-R and fangraphs use Park Factors in calculating WAR, B-R takes into account the "actual" parks that the pitcher performs in. so maybe Stroman has pitched in more difficult parks this year so far and B-R is adjusting for that?

i agree though, seeing stroman at the top of the league does seem weird and wrong. this is anecdotal and subjective, but seems like the fangraphs model will occasionally present a really strange outlier, but the B-R version does so with regularity.

kinda seems inevitable that the WAR models will dramatically change in the near future, though, so that they can be based upon real batted-ball data (ie from STATCAST)

two of his WAR came just from this pitch

ICYMI: Marcus Stroman's Slider might be the Pitching GIF of the year pic.twitter.com/z7JWYbflkg

— Pitcher List (@ThePitcherList) July 10, 2017

I knew there'd be a park-adjustment (though not a parks adjustment...); should've thought of defense but didn't. Still, I would think that both would be tinkering around the edges--the categories above aren't even close, and together they take in pretty much everything else.

On the plus side, there's always Stroman's temperament.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/07/09/stroman-takes-swing-at-umps-all-star-voting

A couple of other things I try to pay attention to:

High-quality starts (7+ IP/2- runs): Stroman (6/18), Sale (8/18), Kershaw (14/19), Kluber (6/14)

Average game score: Stroman (55), Sale (67), Kershaw (67), Kluber (64)

it's not "tinkering around the edges" when ERA and WHIP are fundamentally flawed bcz they adjust for nothing.

Another blowout. I remember 2015, when we spent a couple of months (correctly) banking on run differential to save the day.

An "Ask Bill" I sent in a few days ago that might interest Thermo and NoTime:

Bill: In the past couple of weeks, the Jays lost three games to the Astros and Red Sox by a combined score of 46-4. We know that run differential usually tends to even out over the course of a season, and I’m sure every player knows that too. I realize you’re not a psychologist, but any insight into how players think about such losses, if at all? Thirty years ago I would have thought it’d be, "A loss is a loss, no big deal." But do such blowouts ever give them pause nowadays about how good their team actually is? Maybe they just figure they’re now bound to win some blowouts at some point...
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 7/14/2017
My guess would be that with ONE blowout loss, or one blowout loss a week, it rolls off the team's back; a loss is a loss, no reason to sweat this one. You lose several games like that, you're going to start to question the capability of the team you play for.

(By "run differential usually tends to even out over the course of a season," what I of course meant is that it tends to fall in line with W-L record.)

I agree with Bill on this one.

Stroman is pretty good.

Thanks, VHS!

this game is pissing me the fuck off.

Have close to zero confidence Toronto pulls this one out.

Jeff Blair was funny on the radio this morning, calling the bluff of callers who want to blow up the team. He went through the Astros and Cubs W-L records from 2011-13. "A rebuild is not a 78-84 season."

The Fan had Atkins on this morning. He called Osuna one of the best closers in baseball, Donaldson one of the best players in baseball, and Stroman "one of the best-performing pitchers in baseball." I'm probably reading too much into that, but it struck me as a distinction that suggests management is a little skeptical about Stroman (I've expressed my own skepticism more than once here) and they wouldn't hesitate on the right trade.

"the most tradable asset in baseball!"
"best-performing" is indeed weird tho. maybe they feel Sanchez has more raw talent, but maybe Stroman seems to get more out of his stuff than old blistery is right now. i think it's born more out of not wanting to slight anyone else on the team than trying to talk up a trade piece.
i do think the Jays will wind up sellers, but I expect guys like Happ or Estrada (if anyone will have him) to be on their way out.

My take is that "best performing" means "clutch" in that comment.

I'm no fan of either Kevin Barker or Joe Siddall, but I agree with something Barker said this morning, talking about the difference between Morales and Edwin: "Morales doesn't scare anyone." I know, I know--intangibles. Their HR, RBI, BA, and SLG are virtually identical this year. But Barker explained it in more tangible terms: that teams don't have to manipulate their bullpen with an Edwin AB looming. And another tangible manifestation: Edwin's 55-24 BB advantage, which translates to 60 points of OBP. Most of that is just better plate discipline throughout Edwin's career, but I'm sure the fear factor figures in a little.

Overheard from Progressive field beer guy: "Man it's hot. And those Canadians love to drink. It's gonna be a good night." #Bluejays

— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) July 21, 2017

Fredo: "How do you say 'This team is fucked' in Spanish?"
Michael (smiling): "'This team is fucked.'"

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to win the close ones.

it doesn't feel that way.

Let me rephrase.

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to lose the blowouts.

ah yes. on that i can agree, they've definitely mastered the blowout loss.

uh oh

AZL Reds placed RHP Darren Shred on the 60-day disabled list.

Thanks for the update. I don't know how much patience they're going to have with a 300-some pick who's injury-prone.

Now that's a finish.

yes. i think i woke up my neighbour's kid.

Missed this! Two walk-off grand slams in a week by the same guy--that has to be a first.

that's 4 come from behind wins since wednesday?!