college football under quarantine

With Michigan a clear No. 1 in SP+ and facing a playoff with the No. 6, 7 and 11 teams, here are your national title odds per SP+.

Michigan 49%
Texas 25%
Alabama 17%
Washington 10%

Michigan's gonna need to underachieve (again) for this to be a particularly interesting CFP.

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 4, 2023

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

lol they "underachieved" when TCU beat them. They have a better shot this year because of the teams in it with them.

they did underachieve both times—they were #2 and the #2 team is expected to make the title

tho who am i to question a notre dame fan on the question of underachieving

exactly!

we are the same, you and I. *curls bony fingers into grotesque shape*

anyway, my only argument here is that Michigan and FSU deserve to be in it.

the committee might’ve just nuked the acc

this, really. if you can run the table in a power conference and not make the top four, are you really a power conference?

the only ranked teams FSU beat were LSU, duke (lol), and louisville

god help the ACC if FSU gets crushed by georgia, which they probably should unless the latter has completely checked out

yeah, they will likely be crushed. Doesn't mean they couldn't have beaten any of the 4 in the playoffs, though.

The idea that it'd be a shocking underachievement for Michigan to lose the CFB playoffs is insanity. They can definitely lose either game. They will likely lose the first one.

the ACC question doesn't really matter because the pac-12 is done and the playoff expansion

I agree that FSU was hurt by their road win over the OC that beat Michigan in the CFB playoff last year not coubting more.

obviously i am Old but having conferences where everyone doesn't play each other every year in football + home and away in basketball -- and then pretending that a conference championship means something -- is fucking stupid

honestly football ruins everything

they are fast forwarding to the professional model, it sucks very hard

well, except for the “players getting paid” part

yeah, that part is good. The transfer portal is madness, though. It is evem less restrictive than the professional model, I think?

Kyle McCord missing the Cotton Bowl to enter the portal after Day would not confirm him as next year's starter in an interview.

i don’t think michigan’s offense is good enough to win two playoff games — likely not even one. they skated thru the entire season w/o having to pass the ball & they really don’t have much talent at the skill positions aside from corum. bama is gonna dare their passing game to beat their secondary & i wish michigan luck in that endeavor

the thing w/ ACC is that it’s been a dead conference walking since at least this summer, literally the only thing holding together is a very shortsighted, very long term TV contract the schools signed. FSU, clemson, miami etc would all still be bolting at the first available opportunity regardless of what happened w/ this playoff

and anyway i don’t buy the logic that this reflects on the conference, it’s simply about the QB. nobody is making the argument that texas > FSU bcuz of the big 12. i think the committee sees SEC & big 10 on one level and everyone else on another. they ultimately made a decision that the potential entertainment value of future games is more important than the results of previous ones, and i think that will have real long term implications for the sport. but it all feels irrespective of conference to me

I agree on UM. They need turnovers and/or special teams to score against good defense. The Big 10 offenses they faced were bad, so it's also hard to know how good their defense is. Nobody in the Big 10 scored on them last year, and then they gave up 51 to TCU.

of course, Conor Stalions also didn't buy any TCU tickets last year.

gotta wonder if he still had bama on the list after the texas loss…

the tempo free, opponent adjusted stats are right there. michigan has the #10 offense in college football. other notable skill players: donovan edwards (misused so far this year, but still a five-star talent), massive tight end colston loveland, speedster wide receiver roman wilson.

they didn't put up massive numbers against the #2, #3 and #4 defenses in college football. but they still scored 24, 30, and 26 points in each of those games. that should be enough to win if their defense plays well.

i like to look at the tempo free stats because there is so much stylistic difference in college football. different conferences play basically different sports. michigan, yes, is optimally suited to big ten play, but alabama, who have won with their running game, defense, and timely milroe bombs, are basically a big ten team this year.

whatever, it is very easy to hate from outside the club

how will michigan throw the ball i wonder

Quarterback Play (ESPN QBR & EPA/play)
Power 5, through week 13

(i tweeted out the week 12 chart yesterday. my bad. not a whole lot of movement though!) pic.twitter.com/FURQClhWAw

— yahia hassan (@yhassan00) November 28, 2023

Nobody in the Big 10 scored on them last year, and then they gave up 51 to TCU.

― Natural Wine • Danny Devito • Virginia (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, December 4, 2023 12:37 PM (fifty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is also a tempo thing. michigan scored 44 in this game, if you recall, and should've had more.

tcu's total also aided by 14 defensive points

i know the advanced numbers have loved michigan all season. that being said mccarthy has thrown for under 150 yards in their last 4 wins. that's a wonderful formula to win big 10 football and you can tell me that bama is basically a big 10 team, but i doubt nick saban has ever lost a game to a QB throwing for less than 150 yards. so the formula that has worked for them is not applicable to this game, imo. it's not to say that michigan can't win but they're going to have to show a much more advanced version of their team. mccarthy hasn't thrown for a completion longer than 35 yards in over a month. the history of beating bama tells you that you need big plays from the QB and WRs because the number of teams who show up and run the ball down alabama's throats is basically nonexistent. and michigan's best OL is out.

the thing w/ football stats is you're already dealing w/ a borderline meaningless sample size and then w/ high level college teams you're reducing the sample size even further because 75% of the games are over before they start. so mccarthy's plotting on an efficiency graph is great because he can show up vs nebraska and go 12-16 for 156 yards 2 TDs 0 INT and win 45-7. but not a single thing that happened on that field is relevant to facing alabama

i don't really doubt that michigan is capable of uncorking a few big plays–the exact same group of guys last year combined for a truckload of explosive plays. for whatever reason this year–pass pro issues, head coach's, uh, absences–they have changed their approach. harbaugh and co. are terminally risk-averse in games they're confident they're gonna win, which is something i've always criticized. you need reps against the rutgers of the world to confidently execute against the bamas.

my hope is that with a month to prepare, they'll open things up, and with zinter out, they'll realize that they can't just run the ball down people's throats anymore. (every time they move away from this tendency with a counter or end around, they gain 20+ yards on teams selling out to stop the inside run. maybe run more counter? playaction maybe??)

i think michigan's defense is legit and there isn't much first round talent on bama's offense either, frankly. i don't think it's going to be a repeat of the georgia-michigan semifinal from two years ago but i think michigan has a real uphill battle to get those 24, 30, 26 points. if you wipe out the 87 yard punt return does michigan even hit 20 this weekend...

also if we find out that michigan's defense is not actually as good as we thought and in reality in their three biggest games they faced kyle mccord (already transferring), drew allar (stinks) and iowa's back up, that wouldn't be a shock either. milroe is very raw but it seems obvious that from both a talent and production standpoint he's the best QB michigan has seen this year by several orders of magnitude

maybe mccarthy's alleged first round talent shines in the one game where they actually need that from him -- but typically actually talented, NFL bound QBs don't ever put up the kinda statlines that he has been able to get away w/ repeatedly this season. it should be a fascinating game

here's jalen milroe's statline from the win against georgia: 13/23 for 192 yards and 2 tds, with 29 rushing yards.

that's a mccarthy-esque statline.

except mccarthy probably would've completed more passes

alabama and michigan are very similar this year. people ding michigan for close (not that close) wins against penn state and iowa, but don't ding bama for close wins vs auburn, tcu, arkansas, etc. no doubt they'll be better prepared than against those teams after a month off, but this is not a normal alabama team.

his dad would certainly complete more passes at his girlfriend in the stands

*usf, not tcu

i just think milroe is way more dynamic, personally. he’s got a better arm and better legs. mccarthy’s in his third year of starting his stats shouldn’t be comparable to that of a freshman. but milroe being a freshman may turn out to be relevant, too

michigan has the much better RB which is weird for a bama team but i don’t think any of bama’s RBs are gonna get drafted

it's mccarthy's second year as a starter, and yeah they should air it out more, and will have to in order to win the championship

opponent caveats taken, of course, but he's been able to air it out when he's had to this year (source here):

McCarthy has been particularly effective on third down, completing 42-of-57 pass attempts (73.5 percent) for 615 yards with a 193.26 passer rating. In situations of 3rd-and-7 yards or more, McCarthy is 27-of-35 (75.8 percent) for 447 yards with 24 first downs or touchdowns (five).

the thing w/ ACC is that it’s been a dead conference walking since at least this summer, literally the only thing holding together is a very shortsighted, very long term TV contract the schools signed. FSU, clemson, miami etc would all still be bolting at the first available opportunity regardless of what happened w/ this playoff

Is that true even with Cal, Stanford and SMU joining next year?

those additions matter less than the teams leaving the pac and big 12s next year. If it's SEC/B10 then everyone else this year, it will at least be SEC/B10, ACC, then everyone else next year.

the ACC will be very strong in non-football sports. The big football schools don't want to deal with playing Stanford and Cal in other sports, but it's inevitable.

they brought cal, stanford and SMU in mostly out of desperation and it wasn’t with any consensus. i think it was FSU, clemson & UNC that voted against the additions. if at any point those schools + miami and prob the virginia schools, NC schools, GT etc get a chance to join the big 10 or SEC they will 100% go

I agree that teams want out, but it's not clear they can break the contract for awhile. I suppose it could make sense to pay the pre-2036 penalty to leave if TV revenue continues to rise elsewhere.

At some point it becomes meaningless, doesn't it? When I was in college, my school (Colorado) was in the Big Eight, which later became the Big Twelve. We had meaningful rivalries, at least they were meaningful to us, although given the way things usually went we were no more than a speed bump to the better teams. Then we moved to the PAC-12, which made zero sense, at least in terms of geography and level of play. Now we're going back to the Big Twelve? Who cares?

lol @ ron desantis threatening to sue because FSU got snubbed

already know about chris christie's dad suingfor . . . baseball stardom i guess?, but i'd like to hear more

lol yeah the DeSantis thing is so desperate because he realizes everybody hates him.