college football under quarantine

who remembers the legendarily fluky iron bowl? no one? it was literally last week

And who did Auburn lost to the week before the Iron Bowl...yes that's right New Mexico State.

Florida State also beat LSU by 3 TDs, so they got a bit of bonifides.

FSU should be in over Texas

Texas win over Alabama was too early in the season.

Texas also had least impressive conference championship opponent

that lost by 42 to UCF a few weeks earlier

why does early in the season matter? bama should’ve beaten texas if they wanted to make the playoffs

the noles got hosed

the committee might’ve just nuked the acc

Early in the season has always mattered for losses because teams get better. That should cut both ways, though.

Problem with college football is there's too much of a human factor in who gets crowned.

March Madness works out perfectly because it's such a big, long tournament and the best don't usually get left out of it.

NCAA Football routinely leaves out the best and we just accept it because meh

It's great for starting arguments tho

even #1 Michigan is questionable. Not clear they are any better than last year. The schedule was weak until they played OSU at home. Not much difference with FSU outside of QB injury.

IMHO, Michigan fans are as insufferable as THE Ohio State fans.

their OC cried the most on television? Maybe that's the difference?

and tbc, I cry all of the time. But for Jim Harbaugh?

michigan is the only team in the tourney with wins over two teams currently in the top 10 *shrug*

also #1 in all the fancy stats

Washington beat Oregon twice. I think Oregon definitely beats Penn State.

With Michigan a clear No. 1 in SP+ and facing a playoff with the No. 6, 7 and 11 teams, here are your national title odds per SP+.

Michigan 49%
Texas 25%
Alabama 17%
Washington 10%

Michigan's gonna need to underachieve (again) for this to be a particularly interesting CFP.

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 4, 2023

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

lol they "underachieved" when TCU beat them. They have a better shot this year because of the teams in it with them.

they did underachieve both times—they were #2 and the #2 team is expected to make the title

tho who am i to question a notre dame fan on the question of underachieving

exactly!

we are the same, you and I. *curls bony fingers into grotesque shape*

anyway, my only argument here is that Michigan and FSU deserve to be in it.

the committee might’ve just nuked the acc

this, really. if you can run the table in a power conference and not make the top four, are you really a power conference?

the only ranked teams FSU beat were LSU, duke (lol), and louisville

god help the ACC if FSU gets crushed by georgia, which they probably should unless the latter has completely checked out

yeah, they will likely be crushed. Doesn't mean they couldn't have beaten any of the 4 in the playoffs, though.

The idea that it'd be a shocking underachievement for Michigan to lose the CFB playoffs is insanity. They can definitely lose either game. They will likely lose the first one.

the ACC question doesn't really matter because the pac-12 is done and the playoff expansion

I agree that FSU was hurt by their road win over the OC that beat Michigan in the CFB playoff last year not coubting more.

obviously i am Old but having conferences where everyone doesn't play each other every year in football + home and away in basketball -- and then pretending that a conference championship means something -- is fucking stupid

honestly football ruins everything

they are fast forwarding to the professional model, it sucks very hard

well, except for the “players getting paid” part

yeah, that part is good. The transfer portal is madness, though. It is evem less restrictive than the professional model, I think?

Kyle McCord missing the Cotton Bowl to enter the portal after Day would not confirm him as next year's starter in an interview.

i don’t think michigan’s offense is good enough to win two playoff games — likely not even one. they skated thru the entire season w/o having to pass the ball & they really don’t have much talent at the skill positions aside from corum. bama is gonna dare their passing game to beat their secondary & i wish michigan luck in that endeavor

the thing w/ ACC is that it’s been a dead conference walking since at least this summer, literally the only thing holding together is a very shortsighted, very long term TV contract the schools signed. FSU, clemson, miami etc would all still be bolting at the first available opportunity regardless of what happened w/ this playoff

and anyway i don’t buy the logic that this reflects on the conference, it’s simply about the QB. nobody is making the argument that texas > FSU bcuz of the big 12. i think the committee sees SEC & big 10 on one level and everyone else on another. they ultimately made a decision that the potential entertainment value of future games is more important than the results of previous ones, and i think that will have real long term implications for the sport. but it all feels irrespective of conference to me

I agree on UM. They need turnovers and/or special teams to score against good defense. The Big 10 offenses they faced were bad, so it's also hard to know how good their defense is. Nobody in the Big 10 scored on them last year, and then they gave up 51 to TCU.

of course, Conor Stalions also didn't buy any TCU tickets last year.

gotta wonder if he still had bama on the list after the texas loss…

the tempo free, opponent adjusted stats are right there. michigan has the #10 offense in college football. other notable skill players: donovan edwards (misused so far this year, but still a five-star talent), massive tight end colston loveland, speedster wide receiver roman wilson.

they didn't put up massive numbers against the #2, #3 and #4 defenses in college football. but they still scored 24, 30, and 26 points in each of those games. that should be enough to win if their defense plays well.

i like to look at the tempo free stats because there is so much stylistic difference in college football. different conferences play basically different sports. michigan, yes, is optimally suited to big ten play, but alabama, who have won with their running game, defense, and timely milroe bombs, are basically a big ten team this year.

whatever, it is very easy to hate from outside the club

how will michigan throw the ball i wonder

Quarterback Play (ESPN QBR & EPA/play)
Power 5, through week 13

(i tweeted out the week 12 chart yesterday. my bad. not a whole lot of movement though!) pic.twitter.com/FURQClhWAw

— yahia hassan (@yhassan00) November 28, 2023

Nobody in the Big 10 scored on them last year, and then they gave up 51 to TCU.

― Natural Wine • Danny Devito • Virginia (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, December 4, 2023 12:37 PM (fifty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is also a tempo thing. michigan scored 44 in this game, if you recall, and should've had more.

tcu's total also aided by 14 defensive points

i know the advanced numbers have loved michigan all season. that being said mccarthy has thrown for under 150 yards in their last 4 wins. that's a wonderful formula to win big 10 football and you can tell me that bama is basically a big 10 team, but i doubt nick saban has ever lost a game to a QB throwing for less than 150 yards. so the formula that has worked for them is not applicable to this game, imo. it's not to say that michigan can't win but they're going to have to show a much more advanced version of their team. mccarthy hasn't thrown for a completion longer than 35 yards in over a month. the history of beating bama tells you that you need big plays from the QB and WRs because the number of teams who show up and run the ball down alabama's throats is basically nonexistent. and michigan's best OL is out.

the thing w/ football stats is you're already dealing w/ a borderline meaningless sample size and then w/ high level college teams you're reducing the sample size even further because 75% of the games are over before they start. so mccarthy's plotting on an efficiency graph is great because he can show up vs nebraska and go 12-16 for 156 yards 2 TDs 0 INT and win 45-7. but not a single thing that happened on that field is relevant to facing alabama

i don't really doubt that michigan is capable of uncorking a few big plays–the exact same group of guys last year combined for a truckload of explosive plays. for whatever reason this year–pass pro issues, head coach's, uh, absences–they have changed their approach. harbaugh and co. are terminally risk-averse in games they're confident they're gonna win, which is something i've always criticized. you need reps against the rutgers of the world to confidently execute against the bamas.

my hope is that with a month to prepare, they'll open things up, and with zinter out, they'll realize that they can't just run the ball down people's throats anymore. (every time they move away from this tendency with a counter or end around, they gain 20+ yards on teams selling out to stop the inside run. maybe run more counter? playaction maybe??)

i think michigan's defense is legit and there isn't much first round talent on bama's offense either, frankly. i don't think it's going to be a repeat of the georgia-michigan semifinal from two years ago but i think michigan has a real uphill battle to get those 24, 30, 26 points. if you wipe out the 87 yard punt return does michigan even hit 20 this weekend...

also if we find out that michigan's defense is not actually as good as we thought and in reality in their three biggest games they faced kyle mccord (already transferring), drew allar (stinks) and iowa's back up, that wouldn't be a shock either. milroe is very raw but it seems obvious that from both a talent and production standpoint he's the best QB michigan has seen this year by several orders of magnitude