2023 nba draft thread: starring victor, scoot... and more!

so let's talk about the draft

i want to post about some players i like but in the meantime i was looking back at some of my posts on last year's draft

on jabari:

seems like there's no consensus on the no 1 pick which is pretty interesting, paolo banchero seems like leader in the clubhouse as of now but i see various boards that have other guys at no. 1. he just had prob his best game of the season vs FSU tho, putting up 20-12-7 on 6-11 shooting and making tons of plays down the stretch, nice touch on his passes. i wonder how he'll test athletically, you don't necessarily see overwhelming athleticism in these clips, but he's skilled, poised, and very strong, some real men amongst boys plays. i don't have a great feel for what position ppl think he will play defensively, he's either a positionless fever dream or an exploitable tweener, i can't really tell. if he could passably play center he could be a monster but idk if that's in his future. he's a 34% shooter from deep and shoots 76% from the line, w/ his size the tools are there for a really great offensive player, consistent double-doubles w/ potential for some 20-10-5 type of seasons. feel like ben simmons is a decent comp and what you're giving up in athleticism w/ banchero you gain in overall offensive skill, especially in terms of scoring, as well as just overall oomph on the game. some good clips of his passing in the NC state game from last week, he has a calmness about him in the way that he reads the floor that feels very functional, not preternatural necessarily but if his court vision continues to grow along w/ the rest of his game he will likely be very hard to defend.

i think i talked myself out of liking him as much as i seemed to in this post for whatever reason. based on these games he was showing number 1 scorer type ability. i was worried about his athleticism (in a later post i compared him to bagley and okafor) but that doesn't seem to be an issue. having watched a few magic-heat games... he is huge. even guys like bam have trouble dealing with him. the offensive skill was apparent tho.

on jabari:

jabari smith def seems like a top 3 pick to me, top 5 at absolute worst. if there's any jayson tatum out of the top group it would be him. his spot up shot is a bit slow to me, and the way the ball comes off his hand when he shoots FTs seems a bit weird. he does have a nice fadeaway midrange game tho, and his hands are very active on defense. 7' 2" wingspan. he's another one where i wonder how he tests athletically, you don't see him just killing guys at the rim in his clips... paging jayson tatum. he also only has a season high of four assists this year. i think he's prob below chet and banchero for me

so yeah i don't think jabari smith is going to be jayson tatum. i pegged a number of his weaknesses and did have him rated third which feels right. the arc of his career feels like it's going to be vey wiggins-y to me.

on chet:

chet's shot is so smooth. w/ his defensive potential i feel like he has to go number 1, at worst i feel like you're getting a porzingis type player w/ a better shot and a body potentially less conducive to leg injuries. at best you're potentially getting like karl towns crossed w/ evan mobley. in between maybe he's chris bosh w/ more rim protection. idk

i loved chet! still excited to see him next year for the above reasons. so much for the leg injury stuff but it doesn't feel like a huge deal. i still don't see how he's bad and think he's almost certainly going to be at the very least good.

obviously i mean "on paolo" up top -_-

and some thoughts from the rest of you guys...

everyone seems to have holmgren banchero and jabari smith in some order as the top three, i think i still like holmgren just cause he has that combo of freakish body and great feel for the game that nba stars are made of, smith is your prototypical super athletic very big wing i can def see why teams would be very stoked on him, banchero has the most developed game but maybe lacks some of the elite athleticism length and so forth that could make him an absolute top guy idk

― lag∞n, Friday, January 21, 2022 7:13 AM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

jabari is my #1 bc of the Big Wing thing, thats the most important position in hoops rn, chet worries me bc he just looks like a guy who will miss a lot of time, prove me wrong chet

if the spurs dont launch into the lottery, i like keegan murray from iowa lot. he's older (21 i think) but he's got a pretty nba-ready game from the looks of things

― class project pat (m bison), Friday, January 21, 2022 10:46 AM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

I think Jabari is overrated right now and people are overthinking the chet thing. Players don’t get injured because they’re skinny.

― Matt Armstrong, Friday, January 21, 2022 11:14 AM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

I worry Banchero will turn out to be Michael Beasley

― Matt Armstrong, Friday, January 21, 2022 11:16 AM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

I think Jabari is overrated right now and people are overthinking the chet thing. Players don’t get injured because they’re skinny.

― Matt Armstrong, Friday, January 21, 2022 10:14 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I worry Banchero will turn out to be Michael Beasley

i think i would prob pick chet no 1, in the event that you get any of the evan mobley skill set it will prob be worth it

― J0rdan S., Friday, January 21, 2022 1:25 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

the other thought i had when watching banchero was "what if obi toppin was good and didn't move like an abe lincoln impersonator on stilts"

― J0rdan S., Friday, January 21, 2022 1:32 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

lmao

― class project pat (m bison), Friday, January 21, 2022 1:34 PM (one year ago)

yeah i like chet too, with his freakish arms crazy feel for the game and having all the offensive skills he should go 1 imho, you're potentially getting like karl towns crossed w/ evan mobley exactly he pretty clearly has the highest ceiling of the top guys, the reason hes not the consensus #1 right now is prob because hes not really featured on his team cause he plays next to an older player of the year candidate and that evaluators tend to underrate feel for the game being a true baller and so forth due to it being highly intangible

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:09 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

chets got the juice, the it factor

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:09 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

if jabari smith had an off the bounce game i could see the argument... but he doesnt

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:12 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

feel like chet will be one of those guys who have their aggressiveness questioned leading up to the draft drop a couple few spots then just come in and start doing insane things from day one in the nba

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:16 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

i feel like evan mobley is pretty strong proof of concept for chet, almost feels like it's lining up for it to be the perfect year to take a guy like this no 1 overall. chet maybe not as great defensively i mean mobley seems like a phenom but chet is far more developed as a shooter. w/ his shooting form/touch and natural shot blocking ability i just feel like he's the kind of high floor/high ceiling prospect you should be aiming for w/ a no 1 pick. i'm trying to imagine the worst case outcome for him if he has even average health for a big man. myles turner? jarren jackson jr? his overall feel just seems far superior to those guys and he's taller and he's a better shooter etc

― J0rdan S., Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:22 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

and chet might even be mobley on D, i mean hes a defensive star

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 4:26 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

People are overthinking this, Chet is clearly the guy. Jabari has a really raw game that requires a lot of projection to see in the nba, Chet can shoot and handle.

― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 5:46 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

tbf jabari can shoot good but yeah hes pretty raw

― lag∞n, Wednesday, January 26, 2022 5:55 PM (one year ago)bookmarkflaglink

i hope yall are right abt slenderman

― class project pat (m bison), Wednesday, January 26, 2022 8:02 PM (one year ago)

so anyway onto players i like...

gradey dick (kansas)

possibly the best shooter in the draft at 6' 8" with a pretty well rounded offensive game. even putting the twinkishness aside, he reminds me a lot of tyler herro. can shoot threes standstill and off the dribble, has the mid-range game, and can finish at the rim. like herro he will prob always have issues on defense and is more of a pure scorer/6th man (jordan poole et al) than a true all star level player. also like herro he flashes some playmaking ability and can rebound. unlike herro he is 6' 8" and can probably play the 3, tho in some match ups he's maybe more of a 2 and will never really play 4. before the season he seemed on the fringes of the first round but is now easily pushing into the lottery and possibly the top 10. he has flaws but this kind of shooting and scoring has obvious value in today's game.

26 points on 10-17 shooting, 4-9 from three vs oklahoma st

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J983ETnhKKw

21 points on 7-13 shooting, 5-9 from three vs iowa state

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0I3QN6HeCk

gradey dick (kansas)

possibly the best shooter in the draft at 6' 8" with a pretty well rounded offensive game. even putting the twinkishness aside, he reminds me a lot of tyler herro. can shoot threes standstill and off the dribble, has the mid-range game, and can finish at the rim. like herro he will prob always have issues on defense and is more of a pure scorer/6th man (jordan poole et al) than a true all star level player. also like herro he flashes some playmaking ability and can rebound. unlike herro he is 6' 8" and can probably play the 3, tho in some match ups he's maybe more of a 2 and will never really play 4. before the season he seemed on the fringes of the first round but is now easily pushing into the lottery and possibly the top 10. he has flaws but this kind of shooting and scoring has obvious value in today's game.

26 points on 10-17 shooting, 4-9 from three vs oklahoma st

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J983ETnhKKw

21 points on 7-13 shooting, 5-9 from three vs iowa state

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0I3QN6HeCk

That name sounds like a rejected ILX handle.

minor pynchon character ass name

gradey dick had his worst shooting game of the season last night, though he did have two blocks in the first 5 minutes. in general, yeah, he looks so smooth on offense, beautiful shot, if someone closes out hard on the 3 he can drive past and go to the hoop or pull up, it's been so fun to watch him this year. kansas has never really had anyone like him, and as a fan i'd like to have him back for one more year, but that ship has probably sailed.

even putting the twinkishness aside, he reminds me a lot of tyler herro.

lol, this is an interesting comp. i don't watch miami nearly as much as j0rdan, but i think dick could get to that level of dangerous complementary scorer/borderline star.

kind of a bummer how many prospects i’ve never seen a second of because of the g-league factor. i get it tho, the game is the game

one guy who i like is jalen hood-schifink from indiana, seems to be a true 6’6” with athleticism, a deep bag, and passing ability. they have a great college big and a real point guard, but the offense flows through him

he did just play his worst game of the year against iowa, probably the worst defense in the big ten lol, but that was after dropping 35 on purdue. his 3pt shooting is inconsistent, but he’d be a solid mid-first, late-lottery guy

one guy who i like is jalen hood-schifink from indiana, seems to be a true 6’6” with athleticism, a deep bag, and passing ability. they have a great college big and a real point guard, but the offense flows through him

he did just play his worst game of the year against iowa, probably the worst defense in the big ten lol, but that was after dropping 35 on purdue. his 3pt shooting is inconsistent, but he’d be a solid mid-first, late-lottery guy

― avatár the way of watár (voodoo chili), Wednesday, March 1, 2023 8:15 AM (two weeks ago)

fingers crossed i'll get to see him vs miami in round 2 of the tourney, have not checked him out this year. altho the last time i scouted a player off of their second round tournament performance against miami i became convinced that walker kessler had no chance of surviving in the NBA. so we'll see

hollinger sounding the alarm on scoot

Is there a race for the second pick in the draft? Henderson has been the presumptive No. 2 pick all season, but while Alabama’s Brandon Miller puts together a big season on the court, Henderson’s up-and-down play in the G League has started to raise some eyebrows. I watched him play in College Park on Wednesday night as he scored 17 points in a 131-105 blowout loss; after a 13-point first quarter, he was basically invisible the rest of the night.

First, let’s start with the good news. Henderson is very clearly an elite athlete, and that is going to translate immediately to an NBA floor. Look at this move early in the game in College Park; suffice to say nobody else in the G League is taking two enormous steps from the 3-point line and dunking like this

And yet … when Henderson can’t get a head of steam in transition his play devolves toward ordinary. Opponents go under ball screens and leave him settling for pull-up jumpers, which he takes in bunches but doesn’t convert at a particularly high rate. Henderson also rarely draws fouls, getting to the line just 72 times in 25 games this year. For somebody with his athleticism, that’s shocking. He’s also not much of a 3-point threat, shooting both infrequently and not all that accurately: converting just 22 of his 68 tries on the season

His line on Wednesday was fairly typical — 17 points on 7-of-19 shooting, with five assists and four turnovers. Henderson averages 17.6 points and 6.4 assists on 44.3 percent shooting for the year, so it’s not like I witnessed some wild outlier. Defensively, he wasn’t overtly awful but you wouldn’t say he made an impact either, and at certain junctures he clearly could have done more.

Big picture, it’s another wobbly data point for the G League Ignite program. Henderson’s numbers haven’t improved at all (PER 14.9 this year versus 15.2 last year, shooting 44.3 percent versus 44.9 percent), and his most obvious weakness, perimeter shooting, hasn’t shown any real improvement either.

On the other hand, Henderson’s own work ethic seems exemplary, and might actually be part of the issue: a staffer told me he was already on the arena floor practicing at 3 p.m. for a 7 p.m. game, which would have meant he worked out for over two hours on a game day. (He wasn’t just lobbing free throws, either.) When I got there they were actually trying to pull him off the floor for a media hit and he was continuing to work. Seeing him dominate the first quarter before fading, I’m wondering if he was spent by halftime.

Overall, my takeaway is that watching Henderson is similar to watching Derrick Rose or Anthony Edwards in college, where you have to take the results with a grain of salt and understand the freakish athleticism underlying his game. That said, he’s going to have to develop a reliable jump shot to justify being the second pick in the draft, and he also needs to put more genuine pressure on the rim. Given that he already represents a player archetype – high-scoring, shoot-first guard who generates headlines but isn’t very valuable unless it’s accompanied by high efficiency — he no longer feels like a no-brainer to go second.

Of course, Henderson’s most likely rival for that spot, Alabama’s Miller, has his own obvious questions to answer. Nonetheless, Henderson’s play has left the door open.

well maybe ultimately comparing a guy to ant edwards and derrick rose isn't exactly sounding the alarm

kevin pelton talking about his projections having miller over scoot on the latest windhorst podcast

windhorst also mentions an executive told him he has miller over scoot

would imagine this narrative will continue to build especially if miller has a strong tournament

if it were me i prob wouldnt select miller due to the murder situation

the miller situation is just so patently grotesque I just don’t know what to think…like it would seem that if alabama had some exculpatory evidence they’d at least...mention it? maybe there are legal constraints on what can be said? it’s inexplicable to me that for all the conversation the past decade about the different legal vs extralegal burdens of proof wrt like campus sexual assault that this guy is still playing when he was party to an actual murder of a classmate. I just don’t know what to think

its outrageous

yeah i just try to ignore it because it's so awful and dumb

yet i just saw an article about how he's traveling with an armed guard who wears alabama gear, so that's very normal and good

personally if my team drafted the murder guy well i'd have an issue with that

what he did was stupid but he’s very young, i don’t think it should make him undraftable

the situation has scummy cover up vibes but that’s on the coach and people running the university not the 20 year old

its much worse than stupid

maybe it’s worse. i dunno about much worse. in any event i don’t think it makes him unemployable or an indefensible draft pick

yeah i mean someone asks for a gun you give it to them and then they do a murder whatre you gonna do

i know the police have said hes not a suspect and its unclear exactly what happened but its certainly not hard to imagine him picking up some sort of charge here

and that pat down dance he did my god your actions directly lead to someone getting murdered and thats what you do i would not want anything to do with him

the league has made its standards for conduct pretty clear with the ja stuff

does the nba have an official gun manufacturer yet?

the smith and wesson midseason tournament presented by the suns owner property management group

“We knew about that. Can’t control everything everybody does outside of practice. Nobody knew that was going to happen. College kids are out, Brandon hasn’t been in any type of trouble nor is he in any type of trouble in this case. Wrong spot at the wrong time,” Oats said.

truly sick stuff

sucks to be in the wrong spot at the wrong time and then you give a gun to someone who commits murder with the gun

the story theyre telling about him not having any idea what was going on strains credulity so to speak

is that an actual quote k3vin? that's messed up

i saw koc was dabbling with moving miller above scoot on his board and was just smh at koc being koc. didn't know pelton was doing it too. it's like the curse of analytics, if there's no way to quantify it the "journalists" don't know how to factor the possibility of a charge as an accessory to MURDER into their uh draft rankings. it is absurd.

he'll probably just go top 3 because this is not a business that ha smuch patience for ethics and morals in its calculus. but if he actually falls down the draft at all, what's sad is that the farther he falls the greater the narrative gets that the team that takes him got a steal, they're edgy and brash! willing to take a risk where no one else would. like MPJ going to the nuggs... only this is accessory to murder, not a bad back. just smh all around

i cld def see him falling like even if a team doesnt care about character or whatever and a lot of teams genuinely do the possibility that your player might go to jail has to be factored in, tho maybe theyll have more clarity on the legal stuff by then maybe they already do idk

the alabama coach has apologized for that quote saying he didnt know all the facts and didnt mean to come off like that fwiw i personally dont think its worth much

fair. but the way they have circled the wagons around him is definitely gross

its crazy i cant believe the ncaa is letting him play

sicko fuckin organization

i don't think the NCAA has the power to suspend a player for something like this... i don't think the NCAA has gun rules. plus this gun was legally owned (tho not by miller). also the NCAA is an insanely slow moving bureaucratic body, they'd never be able to investigate & levy punishment when he was still in school. they're completely useless. it really falls on alabama to take the initiative but...... we're talking the SEC here. those schools are not in the business of voluntarily suspending their best players for not committing a crime (in the state of alabama). so idk

no investigation nothing throw college athletics in a hole

it is hard to argue w/ that point...

or peltons stats are or both

The top player in Kevin Pelton's statistical projections for this year's draft is UConn's backup center who won't even be in the draft.

College basketball is a ridiculous enterprise.

— Robert Williams 🩹🩹🩹 Truther (@dangercart) March 16, 2023

pelton uses a blend of his projections w/ the givony espn draft rankings to prevent thing like above ^^ i don't have insider but he said on windhorst's pod that his top 3 are 1. victor 2. miller 3. scoot ... so the same as everyone else's

cowardly, he shd stand by his stats

Considering how the NBA is fast-tracking Ja's apology tour, I'm sure that a team would be willing to spend a high lottery pick on Miller and then do what they can to shield him from legal repercussions.

this is so much worse than the ja sitch tho there was a murder

I mean even by big time college sports' amoral and demented standards the way this has been handled is crazy

Jaime Jaquez has been one of my favorite players to watch for the last 3 years. Plays hard, has worked to expand his game so much. Defends. Fights hard every second.

Remember in his first year, all UCLA would talk about was how he was already a lead-by-example guy as a freshman.

— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) March 26, 2022

v v interesting how so many of these guys are going with Hard Worker as a personality when the world's least grindesetted superstar just won

obvious move there for the rockets

the nightmare is over

honestly they were rumored to be interested in him at #4, kinda of crazy to get him AND amen

can anyone think of precedents for a projected top 5 pick who fell out of the lottery and then was still good in the NBA? i feel like this happens in football especially with QBs but i’m drawing a blank on any basketball examples

maybe not top 5 prospect, but dejounte was projected in the lottery and fell to 29

didnt rob williams fall pretty far

was hoping clowney would fall to 23

gotta be leonard miller

MPJ?

oh yeah MPJ is a good one

he may have still been in the lottery but certainly counts in spirit

it’s understandable that matt armstrong stopped posting on ILH given his demanding job as GM of the mavs

The Kings are trading Richaun Holmes and No. 24 to Dallas, sources tell ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2023

olivier-maxence prosper is such a good name

it’s been a huge night for the french

celtics taking that pick they got for marcus and trading right out of the first round

The Celtics will get No. 31 in the trade, per source. https://t.co/DHxLqCuLlc

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2023

dammit i need to stay awake for 6 more picks

Celtics should be in range to use the $5M Taxpayer MLE after they trade Marcus Sasser to the Pistons and drop out of the #25 pick.

— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) June 23, 2023

lol yeah they are keeping me up

Pacers are keeping No. 26 and eyeing a mid-major riser on boards.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2023

i didn't know there are multiple kobes

one day the league will be only kobes

come on

Hearing the Celtics are trading down yet again from No. 31. Swapping with the Hornets for picks Nos. 34 and 39.

— Jake Fischer (@JakeLFischer) June 23, 2023

lol i figured this would happen

has he been talking to belichick

is brad evil now

im telling u, bad stevens

Bad Stevens

sure why not

Celtics are trading Colby Jones to the Kings for No. 38 and a future second rounder, sources said. https://t.co/YIIMaQyl3d

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 23, 2023

our long nightmare is over i have no idea who either of these guys are

Celtics have taken Jordan Walsh at No. 38 and Mouhamed Gueye at No. 39.

— Brian Robb (@BrianTRobb) June 23, 2023

they also picked up 3 future 2nds lol

they got their gueye

lol

who knows what a 2nd is worth you can get brad beal for six but also you can get five for the 25th pick

nuggets seem to be targeting guys who have size and can shoot it. I can’t say I’ve ever seen any of these dudes play, but I like the type of player they’ve gotten, their bench minutes have been such a black hole

ok whatever idc

Per source, Jordan Walsh is headed to the Celtics and Mouhamed Gueye is not.

— Adam Himmelsbach (@AdamHimmelsbach) June 23, 2023

I’m a little surprised they didn’t take jackson jr, he seemed like a nugget

guy from ucla gets drafted and emerges from the crowd wearing a suit with no shirt

so they kinda just forfeited one of the firsts they got from washington? i’m sure it a cap thing but i thought they could have actually used a new young guy

yeah

they also picked up 3 future 2nds lol

those are good to have because they can trade them for six 2nds even further in the future. and they can trade those six and turn them into 12. eventually, in 2040 or so, the c's will own every pick in the entire second round. which they will package to trade back into the 2041 1st round, at #27.

weird saga

Sources: The Cleveland Cavaliers are selecting Emoni Bates at No. 49.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 23, 2023

apparently he had a 27 inch vertical at 179 pounds at the combine

https://lede-admin.defector.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/28/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-22-at-10.00.23-PM.jpg

My favorite part of going to the NBA Draft last week was when they showed all of Gradey Dick’s pets on the Jumbotron for some reason. pic.twitter.com/OGQ5LKAz3c

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) June 27, 2023

I havent caught a ton of raptors minutes this year, but I’m taking a look at gradey dick’s stat line…

not greaty

seems bad that the guy who was brought in to become a shooter is putting up 27/24/100 splits

apparently he’s kinda been a mess in the g league too. might not have the athleticism