The thing about the NBA MVP award is that only one person can win it, which makes things a bit problematic when multiple players appear to be having MVP-caliber seasons.I wrote about this dilemma a year ago, when three players had bonkers campaigns that would have made them runaway winners in any normal year. Instead, Nikola Jokić narrowly won a second straight MVP award over Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Granted, we’re not even halfway through the 2022-23 season yet, but this year’s MVP traffic only seems worse. To wit:
Boston’s Jayson Tatum has been the best player on the league’s best team, automatically bestowing MVP equity. And this isn’t on the same level as the “You have to consider Devin Booker because the Suns won 64 games” vibe of a year ago. Tatum legitimately has a case for being the best player this time around, as a two-way menace averaging 30.9 points per game for the league’s best offense. He punctuated his candidacy with a 41-points-on 22-shots tour de force against mighty Milwaukee on Christmas.
Kevin Durant has spent the past month reminding everyone how amazing he is. Durant is averaging 29.3 points on 68 percent true shooting since the beginning of November, and his defense has been on par, if not even better than his offense. The Nets have won nine straight to pass Cleveland and Philly in the standings and are breathing down the necks of Boston and Milwaukee for the top spot. At age 34, Durant has also played in 33 of Brooklyn’s 34 games and is third in the NBA in minutes.
Luka Dončić is an offense unto himself for a short-handed Dallas team, one that is ninth in the NBA in offensive efficiency despite having virtually no shot-creation anywhere else on the roster. On top of his ever-widening array of tricks, feints and pivots in the basket area, Dončić has massively increased his free-throw rate in his fifth pro season while shooting a scalding 58.1 percent inside the arc. He’s third in the league in PER, second in scoring and second in BPM despite the near-constant attention from defenses.
Giannis? No, he didn’t go anywhere. The Bucks superstar is fourth in scoring, leads the league in free-throw attempts and remains a monstrous presence for the league’s fifth-ranked defense despite a dip in his PER to “just” 28.1 so far.
Embiid is still here too. He got off to a slow start, but quickly made up for lost time, to the point that he now leads the league in scoring. A lack of durability could again work against him – he has already missed eight games – but at his current rate, it might not matter. Embiid’s December splits are truly ridiculous: 35.9 points, 50 percent from 3, 86.4 percent from the line, 65.8 percent true shooting, more assists than turnovers and eight straight wins for the Sixers. He’s also played every game since Nov. 28.
All of this would make for an amazing five-way MVP race! How we do choose?
Except for one inconvenient fact … the Joker.
The two-time reigning MVP is still here, clowning fools in slow motion with no-look passes, impossibly soft running floaters and all the other random cool stuff he does that seems impossible for a huge ground-bound guy until he does it.
Here, have a Smitty from your opponent’s giant center:
That’s from Nikola Jokić’s 41-point, 15-rebound, 15-assist triple-double against Phoenix on Christmas night, which was notable mostly for how unremarkable it seemed. He was just kind of having a regular game for him and ended up compiling these stats. At 24.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game, Jokić has an outside shot at averaging a triple-double for the season.
The NBA hasn’t had an MVP three-peat since Larry Bird (1984-86), and those of you suffering from Joker fatigue in the MVP vote will need to do some soul searching again this season. Jokić’s PER of 32.2 not only leads the league, but also nearly matches last season’s career high. His 12.4. BPM leads the league by a wide margin … and it’s also higher than his first MVP season.
His 68.5 percent true shooting? Well, it doesn’t lead the league, but it does for medium- to high-usage players (anyone over 20 percent) and it is easily the best mark of his career. Durant is choking on his dust back at 67.3. There’s a good reason for this: Jokić has cut back sharply on taking 3s after hitting 33.7 percent a year ago, flinging them barely half as often as last year to instead move to his comfort zone from midrange. (Fun stat: Jokić is shooting 61 percent this season on midrange shots, according to Cleaning the Glass. What?!?!)
His 45.7 percent assist percentage? No, that doesn’t quite lead the league. Dončić and Indiana’s Tyrese Hailburton are still slightly ahead of him. But, did I mention Jokić is a center? His rate is nearly twice that of any other five (Embiid is next at 24.4), and yes, is a career high for a player who already was cemented as the best passing big man of all time before the season tipped off.
All of this would be easy to write off were it not for one other inconvenient fact: Jokić’s team is also in first place in the West at 21-11, a half game ahead of second-place New Orleans.
The biggest argument against the Joker the past two years – and the biggest reason voter fatigue was likely to get in the way of a three-peat – was that the Nuggets were good, but not among the league’s elite, winning 47 and 48 games, respectively. Well, what now? What if they finish first in the West, with the team still hemorrhaging points any time Jokić leaves the floor? This year’s Nuggets have a whopping TWENTY-FIVE-POINT differential between having Jokić on the court (plus-11.3 points per 100 possessions) and off it (minus-13.6 points).
No amount of staggering or tinkering has seemed able to fix this, although the Nuggets’ recent stretch of seven wins in eight games has seen more stability from the second group. If they finish first in the West with the team going instantly into tire-fire mode anytime Jokić leaves the floor, how could he not be the MVP?
There’s still more than half a season to play and torrents of water left to go under the bridge. Injuries will inevitably scratch a few names from the race. Slumps may do so as well; the Nuggets are hardly ironclad with their half-game lead atop the West, especially given that they rank only 11th in net margin of victory and 25th in defense. (Jokić, for all his positives, is not exactly an imposing rim protector; he has good hands and positions himself well, but to date, his greatest defensive accomplishment has been mastering the kick-ball violation.) And maybe Durant renders all this discussion irrelevant by averaging 35 a game during a 20-game win streak or something.
But the Nuggets’ unexpected appearance at the top of the standings, despite still trying to incorporate Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. through an uneven first half of the season, makes for some interesting conversation for the second half.
The presumption heading into the season was that Joker fatigue would take over the MVP race, and voters would shift toward rewarding a player whose team was at or near the top of the standings.
But what if that player turns out to be Nikola Jokić?
― k3vin k., Thursday, 29 December 2022 19:51 (one year ago) link