jordan’s heat bløg

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starting this off with nikola jovic putting up 10-3-5 on 4-7 shooting, 2-4 from three, 2 steals and a block

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDLdlk42iUk

i wasn’t impressed by his athleticism in summer league but he is skilled and seems to have a good feel for the game. and if he is a 35%+ three point shooter he will be able to play.

Spoelstra says Jovic is still doing his final exam over Zoom to graduate from high school.

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) October 7, 2022

J0rdan S., Friday, 7 October 2022 03:08 (two months ago) link

liked and subscribed!

k3vin k., Friday, 7 October 2022 14:35 (two months ago) link

i thought that guy played for the nuggets haha

lag∞n, Friday, 7 October 2022 14:36 (two months ago) link

xp ditto

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Friday, 7 October 2022 14:50 (two months ago) link

heat sat all their real players tonight vs memphis so duncan robinson had 29 on 7-11 shooting, 5-7 from three. made a few crazy ones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Sqb7bA2M9E

i think perceptions of the down turn in his play have become exaggerated and i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit of a bounce back season

J0rdan S., Saturday, 8 October 2022 06:56 (one month ago) link

13-8-3 with 3 blocks and a steal for jovic. his three point shot is starting to intrigue me, it’s plug and play in the heat’s system if he can hit some of these shots in real games

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHjK83yT2rk

J0rdan S., Saturday, 8 October 2022 07:03 (one month ago) link

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 14:54 (one month ago) link

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 14:54 (one month ago) link

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 14:54 (one month ago) link

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 14:54 (one month ago) link

Oof very sorry. I blame Zing as always

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 14:55 (one month ago) link

i mean his 3pt% last three years was 45, 41, 37, you need better than 37 from a pure hoister, if you can hit 45 on ten attempts a game youre really valuable but its really hard to do that almost no one has been able to sustain that sort of shooting theres kyle korver not sure who else

lag∞n, Sunday, 9 October 2022 15:07 (one month ago) link

even at 40% hes not worth that big contract, i think generally you just dont want to pay guys like that big money theres just too much variance in high end shooting numbers, like bertans got that bigish contract and he wasnt putting up nearly the numbers that robinson was now hes a bench rando getting paid like a quality starter, and then theres the playoff matchup situation to worry about if he cant hold up on d

lag∞n, Sunday, 9 October 2022 15:13 (one month ago) link

Sure but whether or not he’s overpaid is a totally different question

Lavator Shemmelpennick, Sunday, 9 October 2022 15:29 (one month ago) link

its connected, basically hes playing like a bench guy so hes being played like a bench guy

lag∞n, Sunday, 9 October 2022 15:49 (one month ago) link

his play was up and down for a lot of the year, he had a stretch in the regular season where he was barely getting off the bench. to what extent you can use him in the playoffs is a separate conversation but i think he can still be a good regular season player. he lost his confidence last year but he’s hunting for shots in the preseason.

not sure he’ll ever shoot above 40% again bcuz almost all his threes are high difficulty, he doesn’t get many clean catch and shoot looks anymore. but if he can get back up to 38% or so at his volume he’ll be a good player again

J0rdan S., Sunday, 9 October 2022 23:38 (one month ago) link

heat put UDFA jamal cain on a two way after averaging 17/8 in the preseason

Cain is in the top 10 in preseason wins above replacement player so far by my metric. https://t.co/Y31Rc3HXiv

— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) October 9, 2022

skinny but long athletic wing type. he's shot it well in the preseason.

15-11 and 5 steals vs brooklyn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW5rOlXSVZA

J0rdan S., Monday, 10 October 2022 04:16 (one month ago) link

this team is desperately in need of a 4 who can play small ball 5. bam's +20 to dedmon's -18 was the story of the celtics game. dedmon gives them decent back up 5 mins on most nights but he can't play vs a team like boston.

caleb martin is really more like a 2 to me than a 4, he has a wing skill set but is so skinny that he can't credibly hold up in that role. they tried a super small line up at the end of the third last night w/ butler at 5 and haywood highsmith on the floor to go w/ more wings but highsmith doesn't look ready for primetime and spo went away from that pretty quickly. jovic is being groomed for the small ball 5 role based on how they used him in the preseason but understandable that spo doesn't trust him yet vs a team like boston.

i wonder if they make a move for jae crowder fairly soon. i think there's a hard ceiling on his ability as you get deeper into the playoffs but he seems like a fairly logical stop gap option at the 4 until they can figure out a more significant move closer to the deadline. it would be a seamless fit given their history and there's also the connection between james jones and the heat front office, it just feels like a really obvious move for both sides if the suns are still intent on moving crowder. also wonder if they look at olynyk tho not sure if there's any working relationship between the ainge and reilly front offices.

the defense has been pretty poor overall in both two games, they're just very small. you could see last night vs boston that they were double teaming a lot and bleeding threes as a result, especially in the corners. will be interesting to see how they match up vs toronto the next two games. i'm curious if the heat look more comfortable or if toronto's size on the wing really strains the heat's roster. i'm leaning more towards the latter

J0rdan S., Saturday, 22 October 2022 19:00 (one month ago) link

on the bright side, the starting 5 played at a high level last night when bam was on the floor. lowry looked way better, his shooting especially off the dribble from three is much needed. but it's hard to know how often he can get there. gabe vincent looks like one of the better back up 1s in the league but this team is going to need a good season from lowry to stay out of the play in in all likelihood.

herro has also looked even better than last year. 24-6-2 on 50/42/85 shooting in two games so far. he has improved his ability to finish at the rim especially through contact in each season and looks physically stronger again this year in his upper body. he's showing a devin booker like skillset as a scoring guard at all three levels of the court. lengthier defenders can still give him trouble but his shooting ability, creativity, and skill as a scorer really plays in the modern game.

haven't seen a finish like this from him previously

Tyler Herro is special. ⭐️

pic.twitter.com/sTaTsAD0r3

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 20, 2022

J0rdan S., Saturday, 22 October 2022 19:12 (one month ago) link

yeah the dropoff from bam to dedmon was rough for them last night, they shd get myles turner

lag∞n, Saturday, 22 October 2022 19:22 (one month ago) link

not getting much attention nationally but oladipo has tendinitis in his other knee and hasn’t played this year and didn’t travel with the heat out west

Victor Oladipo isn't traveling to Portland, Golden State and Sacramento, meaning the chronic condition that has developed in his non surgically repaired knee will sideline him at least the first 7 games this season.

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) October 25, 2022

J0rdan S., Tuesday, 25 October 2022 17:03 (one month ago) link

sad

Spottie, Tuesday, 25 October 2022 17:23 (one month ago) link

nice blowout win in portland last night. the game shifted when they put jovic at the 5 w/ butler and three other shooters. jovic was actually quite bad (2 points, 5 fouls in 14 minutes) but his presence on the floor opened the offense up. the heat look like how the heat are supposed to look when bam is off the floor with jovic out there.

elsewhere, caleb martin was +19, duncan robinson was +12 and max strus was +24. teams like portland that are/want to play small are going to be great match ups for the heat. if two of martin/strus/robinson can credibly play the 3 and 4 at the same time (w/ herro on the floor too) the heat are gonna score a ton of points on you and will be able to do enough on defense w/ butler & bam around to win most games. the issue is against teams like boston, milwaukee & philly who have the size to punish those guys. martin in particular was awesome (16-8-3 and 4 steals), portland just has no one on their roster who could make him pay for being a 200 pound PF.

J0rdan S., Thursday, 27 October 2022 16:08 (one month ago) link

17-2-6 on 5-7 shooting from three for lowry last night. he seems to have righted himself. they used him a lot off the ball, only one of his 8 shots was a two. it feels like a viable path forward w/ him on the floor if he can shoot ~38% from three. the offense can be run thru herro, bam, and butler but they need lowry to essentially be a 3 and D guard. he's shot 11-21 from three in three games (wins over toronto and portland, competitive loss to boston) and 2-15 from three in two other games (losses to toronto and chicago). feels like that correlation is gonna stick for most of the year because if he isn't hitting threes it's going to be tough for him to make an impact offensively on a lot of nights and they need him out there

J0rdan S., Thursday, 27 October 2022 16:16 (one month ago) link

one month passes...

4-1 over their last five after the nice win in boston last night. they’re healthy for the time being now for the first time in weeks and it’s right as the schedule gets a little soft. it feels like if they can make a run over the next 3-4 weeks they can put themselves in solid position for a 4-5 seed. their schedule to finish out the calendar year…

@ grizzlies
pistons
clippers
spurs
@ pacers
@ thunder
@ rockets
@ spurs (mexico city)
bulls
pacers
wolves
lakers
@ nuggets
@ jazz

if they can go say 10-4 over that stretch they’d get to 5 games above .500 which would prob give them a little breathing room ahead of the play in race. if they can make that push the formula appears as if it will be pretty uncomplicated: their highest paid players playing very well.

bam has averaged 27-9-3 over the last 5 including games of 38 and 32 with butler out. herro put up an efficient 48-11-12 while shooting 8-16 from three on some pretty difficult ones in the two games vs boston. lowry has had some great games the last few weeks more or less carrying the team w/ a lot of guys hurt tho you do have to wonder about the wear and tear on his body. and of course jimmy comes back last night with a 25-15 and some crazy shotmaking to beat boston.

the other development is haywood highsmith who i’ve never particularly been a fan of… but he was a team leading +12 vs boston last night & was noticeable for his individual defense. he’s one of the league leaders this year in individual field goal percentage against & this team has desperately needed another wing defender so this is worth monitoring. his offense is still in utero to be polite but he’s gonna see the floor playing the 3-4 swing spot and even some small ball 5. the rotation feels more complete with a player like that out there tho it still ultimately feels like there are gonna be multiple trades swung before the deadline to bring in new bodies for the playoffs.

one of the bigger variables here & with basically every team in the east outside milwaukee, boston & cleveand is how the top 3 shakes out. there will prob be a lot of jockeying around the standings hunting for match ups depending on team preference… i think if you’re the heat you’d rather see boston in round 2 than milwaukee, so maybe you’re pushing for the 4-5 if boston is gonna be the 1 or taking the 6 if the they’re gonna be in the 2-3 spots

J0rdan S., Saturday, 3 December 2022 21:20 (four days ago) link

bam, herro and lowry have looked so good. and of course jimmy. he wants that ring. who am i to say he shouldn’t get it?

feel like they need more from vincent and strus

highsmith was very impressive in game 1 against boston, a non-factor in game 2 though it seems he did rebound the ball pretty well

Tracer Hand, Saturday, 3 December 2022 23:47 (four days ago) link


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