jordan’s heat bløg

starting this off with nikola jovic putting up 10-3-5 on 4-7 shooting, 2-4 from three, 2 steals and a block

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDLdlk42iUk

i wasn’t impressed by his athleticism in summer league but he is skilled and seems to have a good feel for the game. and if he is a 35%+ three point shooter he will be able to play.

Spoelstra says Jovic is still doing his final exam over Zoom to graduate from high school.

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) October 7, 2022

liked and subscribed!

i thought that guy played for the nuggets haha

xp ditto

heat sat all their real players tonight vs memphis so duncan robinson had 29 on 7-11 shooting, 5-7 from three. made a few crazy ones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Sqb7bA2M9E

i think perceptions of the down turn in his play have become exaggerated and i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit of a bounce back season

13-8-3 with 3 blocks and a steal for jovic. his three point shot is starting to intrigue me, it’s plug and play in the heat’s system if he can hit some of these shots in real games

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHjK83yT2rk

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Declining perception of Robinson seemed as much influenced by his falling out of favor with Spo as it did his actual play. Iirc he was benched in the playoffs beyond just playing the matchups no? If he gets minutes I suspect you’re right on the bounce back

Oof very sorry. I blame Zing as always

i mean his 3pt% last three years was 45, 41, 37, you need better than 37 from a pure hoister, if you can hit 45 on ten attempts a game youre really valuable but its really hard to do that almost no one has been able to sustain that sort of shooting theres kyle korver not sure who else

even at 40% hes not worth that big contract, i think generally you just dont want to pay guys like that big money theres just too much variance in high end shooting numbers, like bertans got that bigish contract and he wasnt putting up nearly the numbers that robinson was now hes a bench rando getting paid like a quality starter, and then theres the playoff matchup situation to worry about if he cant hold up on d

Sure but whether or not he’s overpaid is a totally different question

its connected, basically hes playing like a bench guy so hes being played like a bench guy

his play was up and down for a lot of the year, he had a stretch in the regular season where he was barely getting off the bench. to what extent you can use him in the playoffs is a separate conversation but i think he can still be a good regular season player. he lost his confidence last year but he’s hunting for shots in the preseason.

not sure he’ll ever shoot above 40% again bcuz almost all his threes are high difficulty, he doesn’t get many clean catch and shoot looks anymore. but if he can get back up to 38% or so at his volume he’ll be a good player again

heat put UDFA jamal cain on a two way after averaging 17/8 in the preseason

Cain is in the top 10 in preseason wins above replacement player so far by my metric. https://t.co/Y31Rc3HXiv

— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) October 9, 2022

skinny but long athletic wing type. he's shot it well in the preseason.

15-11 and 5 steals vs brooklyn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW5rOlXSVZA

this team is desperately in need of a 4 who can play small ball 5. bam's +20 to dedmon's -18 was the story of the celtics game. dedmon gives them decent back up 5 mins on most nights but he can't play vs a team like boston.

caleb martin is really more like a 2 to me than a 4, he has a wing skill set but is so skinny that he can't credibly hold up in that role. they tried a super small line up at the end of the third last night w/ butler at 5 and haywood highsmith on the floor to go w/ more wings but highsmith doesn't look ready for primetime and spo went away from that pretty quickly. jovic is being groomed for the small ball 5 role based on how they used him in the preseason but understandable that spo doesn't trust him yet vs a team like boston.

i wonder if they make a move for jae crowder fairly soon. i think there's a hard ceiling on his ability as you get deeper into the playoffs but he seems like a fairly logical stop gap option at the 4 until they can figure out a more significant move closer to the deadline. it would be a seamless fit given their history and there's also the connection between james jones and the heat front office, it just feels like a really obvious move for both sides if the suns are still intent on moving crowder. also wonder if they look at olynyk tho not sure if there's any working relationship between the ainge and reilly front offices.

the defense has been pretty poor overall in both two games, they're just very small. you could see last night vs boston that they were double teaming a lot and bleeding threes as a result, especially in the corners. will be interesting to see how they match up vs toronto the next two games. i'm curious if the heat look more comfortable or if toronto's size on the wing really strains the heat's roster. i'm leaning more towards the latter

on the bright side, the starting 5 played at a high level last night when bam was on the floor. lowry looked way better, his shooting especially off the dribble from three is much needed. but it's hard to know how often he can get there. gabe vincent looks like one of the better back up 1s in the league but this team is going to need a good season from lowry to stay out of the play in in all likelihood.

herro has also looked even better than last year. 24-6-2 on 50/42/85 shooting in two games so far. he has improved his ability to finish at the rim especially through contact in each season and looks physically stronger again this year in his upper body. he's showing a devin booker like skillset as a scoring guard at all three levels of the court. lengthier defenders can still give him trouble but his shooting ability, creativity, and skill as a scorer really plays in the modern game.

haven't seen a finish like this from him previously

Tyler Herro is special. ⭐️

pic.twitter.com/sTaTsAD0r3

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 20, 2022

yeah the dropoff from bam to dedmon was rough for them last night, they shd get myles turner

not getting much attention nationally but oladipo has tendinitis in his other knee and hasn’t played this year and didn’t travel with the heat out west

Victor Oladipo isn't traveling to Portland, Golden State and Sacramento, meaning the chronic condition that has developed in his non surgically repaired knee will sideline him at least the first 7 games this season.

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) October 25, 2022

sad

nice blowout win in portland last night. the game shifted when they put jovic at the 5 w/ butler and three other shooters. jovic was actually quite bad (2 points, 5 fouls in 14 minutes) but his presence on the floor opened the offense up. the heat look like how the heat are supposed to look when bam is off the floor with jovic out there.

elsewhere, caleb martin was +19, duncan robinson was +12 and max strus was +24. teams like portland that are/want to play small are going to be great match ups for the heat. if two of martin/strus/robinson can credibly play the 3 and 4 at the same time (w/ herro on the floor too) the heat are gonna score a ton of points on you and will be able to do enough on defense w/ butler & bam around to win most games. the issue is against teams like boston, milwaukee & philly who have the size to punish those guys. martin in particular was awesome (16-8-3 and 4 steals), portland just has no one on their roster who could make him pay for being a 200 pound PF.

17-2-6 on 5-7 shooting from three for lowry last night. he seems to have righted himself. they used him a lot off the ball, only one of his 8 shots was a two. it feels like a viable path forward w/ him on the floor if he can shoot ~38% from three. the offense can be run thru herro, bam, and butler but they need lowry to essentially be a 3 and D guard. he's shot 11-21 from three in three games (wins over toronto and portland, competitive loss to boston) and 2-15 from three in two other games (losses to toronto and chicago). feels like that correlation is gonna stick for most of the year because if he isn't hitting threes it's going to be tough for him to make an impact offensively on a lot of nights and they need him out there

4-1 over their last five after the nice win in boston last night. they’re healthy for the time being now for the first time in weeks and it’s right as the schedule gets a little soft. it feels like if they can make a run over the next 3-4 weeks they can put themselves in solid position for a 4-5 seed. their schedule to finish out the calendar year…

@ grizzlies
pistons
clippers
spurs
@ pacers
@ thunder
@ rockets
@ spurs (mexico city)
bulls
pacers
wolves
lakers
@ nuggets
@ jazz

if they can go say 10-4 over that stretch they’d get to 5 games above .500 which would prob give them a little breathing room ahead of the play in race. if they can make that push the formula appears as if it will be pretty uncomplicated: their highest paid players playing very well.

bam has averaged 27-9-3 over the last 5 including games of 38 and 32 with butler out. herro put up an efficient 48-11-12 while shooting 8-16 from three on some pretty difficult ones in the two games vs boston. lowry has had some great games the last few weeks more or less carrying the team w/ a lot of guys hurt tho you do have to wonder about the wear and tear on his body. and of course jimmy comes back last night with a 25-15 and some crazy shotmaking to beat boston.

the other development is haywood highsmith who i’ve never particularly been a fan of… but he was a team leading +12 vs boston last night & was noticeable for his individual defense. he’s one of the league leaders this year in individual field goal percentage against & this team has desperately needed another wing defender so this is worth monitoring. his offense is still in utero to be polite but he’s gonna see the floor playing the 3-4 swing spot and even some small ball 5. the rotation feels more complete with a player like that out there tho it still ultimately feels like there are gonna be multiple trades swung before the deadline to bring in new bodies for the playoffs.

one of the bigger variables here & with basically every team in the east outside milwaukee, boston & cleveand is how the top 3 shakes out. there will prob be a lot of jockeying around the standings hunting for match ups depending on team preference… i think if you’re the heat you’d rather see boston in round 2 than milwaukee, so maybe you’re pushing for the 4-5 if boston is gonna be the 1 or taking the 6 if the they’re gonna be in the 2-3 spots

bam, herro and lowry have looked so good. and of course jimmy. he wants that ring. who am i to say he shouldn’t get it?

feel like they need more from vincent and strus

highsmith was very impressive in game 1 against boston, a non-factor in game 2 though it seems he did rebound the ball pretty well

herro averaged 24-6-5 on 47/42/94 shooting in the month of december. included games of 34, 35, 41, 28, and 29. he is playing like a $30 million per year type of player.

he showed the full skillset last night in utah... hitting pull up threes, scoring from mid range off the pick and roll using pull up jumpers and floaters, and then athleticism at the rim w/ several finishes on the fast break. he also got to the line 7 times and was the heat's leading rebounder with 9.

when he's clicking like this he's a very fun player to watch. he's so fundamentally sound, his footwork is pristine and his jumper always looks good. a three level scorer w/ creativity to his game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfWZqE-Jjuw

26-10-5 on 9-18 shooting, 4-9 from three two nights ago in denver. the combo of the pull up game from three and mid range plus the ability to make those floater shots is a really nice combo. and showing some ability to find open shooters as a ball handler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8DSPmq5vnE

the heat feel like a different team when oladipo is out there and having a positive night on offense. the difference it makes for them to have a guard who is a plus defender and who can make some plays on his own w/ the ball changes the complexion of their line ups. of course the offense comes and goes -- to put it politely -- but when he's contributing on that side of the floor putting him out there w/ herro, bam and butler + any of their other guys has felt like their strongest line up. he's much more dynamic athletically and as a playmaker on both ends than either lowry or gabe vincent. his ability to cause turnovers and finish on the fastbreak is major for them given the state of their half court offense.

last two games for victor are 15-5-4 on 6-11 shooting vs the clippers and 23-5-5 on 7-15 shooting vs utah. just massive contributions for where this team is at. of course, in the previous three games he had 16 points combined on 5-20 shooting and 1-9 from three. nobody will guard him in the playoffs but he proved his value in the boston series last year. it's just gonna be a really tricky balancing act for them trying to squeeze real games out of him in the regular season and keeping him healthy enough to try and contribute for two rounds in the playoffs. they didn't need him at all in the regular season last year but that just doesn't appear to be the case this season

another awesome herro game last night putting up 23-7-3 on 7-15 shooting, 5-9 from three. he's up to 8.5 3PA per game this season after being at 6.7 last year and 5.5 the year before. in the month of december that was up to 9.9 3PA per game and obv he put up another 9 last night. if he shoots at that volume above 40% w/ his ability to shoot off the dribble, catch and shoot, on the move etc he becomes one of the most dangerous three point shooters in the league & it kinda changes things for him and this offense altogether. it almost moves him more into a klay thompson kinda realm offensively w/ a bit more ability off the dribble

last year he shot 60% of the time from 2 and and 40% of the time from three. this year it's 49% from two and 51% from three. a huge and very effective change in shot diet for him and that will prob keep widening. on top of that his 2 pt% is actually up this year to 51% from 48% last year. he's traded a lot of his tougher mid range shots for threes (and is also going to the basket a bit less) and the result is a career high 59% true shooting (last year he was at 56%)

just some high level three point shooting in this clip in terms of off the dribble as a ball handler as well as some tough catch and shoot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSoFNfG-dKc

Also:

Over the last 11 games that the Heat have gone 8-3, Miami has a 115 offensive rating and 106 defensive rating when Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are on the floor together

You add Victor Oladipo to those two, Miami has a 119 offensive rating and 104 defensive rating

Insane

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) January 3, 2023

i really like the heat

i like the bucks too

and the celtics

i’m conflicted

i mean don’t get it twisted i’m a boston fan but i feel like

i feel like i know these guys

hows this not a foul wow

Wow. Jimmy Butler misses at the buzzer. No foul call. Game over. Nets beat Heat 102-101. pic.twitter.com/krtyZCEnRb

— Will Manso (@WillManso) January 9, 2023

two time champ norris cole courtside tonight

bam went 14-14 from the free throw line tonight

norris cole is a true heat legend salute

one of our most exciting young players

haha he’s the guy that originated with right?

Yes lol

in the house in brooklyn tonight

with lowry oladipo and herro hurt the heat are putting out some unwatchable line ups when butler sits

Just leaving this here btw

Bam vs Embiid in the clutchpic.twitter.com/F8IhJUJkif

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) February 28, 2023

trae young is shooting 30.3% (with 49 turnovers) in his last 8 games vs. the Heat.

— Rohan Nadkarni (@RohanNadkarni) March 5, 2023

Trae Young had one of the worst games this season - going 2/13(lowest this season) with 5 TOVs

The Heat had a similar game plan as they did in the playoffs. They prevented him from getting inside - having multiple defenders pinching in, helping off, timely doubles pic.twitter.com/1gOBKwz2h5

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) March 5, 2023

im not sure theres a less talked about solid team in the league. i hear nothing and seems like theyre never on national tv either. weird team.

it’s been a weird season, right? their point differential is negative. jimmy has been spectacular, but lowry, oladapo, and duncan robinson are complete zeroes now. jimmy in particular could always make noise in the playoffs but for this to be basically the same roster that took them to the finals a few years ago has to be pretty depressing. I don’t follow them closely enough to know what their off-season move is going to be. I assume it starts with extending udonis haslem

halsem said hes hanging it up!

it’s been a very dreary season. nobody talks about them bcuz there is nothing to talk about… aside from jovic who has been hurt they didn’t add a single player to the team between the end of the finals and the buyout period

they had a nice 4 year run with this iteration of the roster. i don’t necessarily fault them for their lack of action bcuz it’s a function of them understanding they need to make a big move. ultimately i think staying pat and hoarding assets at the deadline was the right move but jimmy has been outstanding this year & it’s a shame to not give him at least a fighting chance in the playoffs

the good news is they can’t possibly bring this iteration of the roster back. jimmy & bam aren’t going anywhere but i have to imagine everything else is on the table. i’m excited to see what the team looks like next year bcuz i think they’ll have 2-3 new starters

You're gonna need tissues handy for this one 🥹

Ahead of @ThisIsUD's final game his teammates from all eras of his 20 year career have nothing but love for OG pic.twitter.com/YjrE7wvkc5

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 8, 2023

Can’t believe Spo called the “Tyler Johnson for the win in 2015 Summer League” play for Jimmy in a close out playoff game on the road vs the #1 seed @MiamiHEAT @5ReasonsSports @5OTF_ @BradyHawk305 @DosMinutos @Alf954 @jeremytache @MarcHochman pic.twitter.com/2GxrbzvVc6

— Jonathan Keller (@JKeller5) April 27, 2023

congrats Jordo, that must've been awesome to watch

idk those are really difficult shots but if theres nothing else happening i guess it is what it is, whats jimmys problem did he really go emo

those are hard shots but i do think small guards need to have that pin the defender/floater game in their bags if they're going to have the ball a lot. i think trae is one of the best at this?

yeah def pinning the defender on yr hip is a nice advanced technique and the fact that herro has it in his game now is good

i think one of the reasons along with him being a great shooter that it makes sense to tilt his game more towards 3s than standard lead guard stuff is that he doesnt have great athleticism to finish once hes in the lane and ends up taking more difficult shots than you might like, getting stronger would help tho he has a pretty slight frame so hes prob not ever going to be super strong

if he really starts hunting threes out of the pick and roll and is effective thatd open up driving and passing lanes, but if hes mostly looking more to drive or pass and not exploiting every little hole for a 3 attempt hes kiinda playing into the defenses hands IMHO

idk that hed actually be successful with that steph approach but it seems very worth a try, he even has his own draymond ready to go in bam

also i would just like to see it

i think one of the reasons along with him being a great shooter that it makes sense to tilt his game more towards 3s than standard lead guard stuff is that he doesnt have great athleticism to finish once hes in the lane and ends up taking more difficult shots than you might like, getting stronger would help tho he has a pretty slight frame so hes prob not ever going to be super strong

― lag∞n, Wednesday, November 1, 2023 12:07 PM (three minutes ago)

for sure i think the major difference between him and maxey is maxey has speed that eliminates his size disadvantage. herro has to rely a lot more on creativity around the rim & while i think he has gotten better at that every season, there is prob going to be a cap on what he can do at the rim

also -- i think most people would guess that herro is a great free throw shooter but i'm not sure people realize he led the league in FT shooting last year among qualified players and it wasn't particularly close. he shot 93.3% from FT last year -- the next highest player was KD at 91.9%

that's free money that he just has to figure out how to access. i think you can tell he's worked on drawing contact this year & i think as he develops that pin/floater game he should be able to draw fouls from guys trying to get him from behind. but also can he hold up physically if he's trying to draw 5-6 fouls per game every night in the NBA?

if he was shooting 4-10 from three every game and making 5-6 free throws per game, that's like 18 points per game right there w/o having to make a single two pointer in game action. i think that's the ultimate goal for him. the first part should be achievable, i think the second part is the real crux of it all

yeah increasing his ft rate would be good, its tough to do but not impossible

whats jimmys problem did he really go emo

― lag∞n, Wednesday, November 1, 2023 11:46 AM (thirteen minutes ago)

it's interesting. saw this tweet last night that made me raise my eyebrow

So Jimmy Butler now on injury report with knee tendinitis three nights after sitting out in Minnesota and one night after playing 28:43 in Milwaukee. He is 13 of 40 from the field this season in his three appearances. He declined comment after Monday's game. https://t.co/t1peUnB05I

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) October 31, 2023

i didn't see the boston game but he definitely did not look spry or athletic vs the bucks

ultimately given what ppl were saying about jimmy this offseason i'm choosing to believe that he doesn't have a debilitating knee injury & is just doing his typical regular season coasting while also not making many shots

also if you look at the heat's injury reports so far this season (embedded in the above tweet) i think they're laying the groundwork for a big load management season regardless of the new rules. they've sat caleb martin the whole season, are already listing & sitting jimmy and bam

i sorta hoped that last season wouldn't embolden them to never care about playoff seedings again. but i think that's prob what happened

yeah jimmy was a non entity vs celtics, what were they saying about him in the offseason

*i kinda think not caring about playoff seeding is the move, im a load management extremist lol, tho from a watching the games perspective obvs i hate it

yeah well they're also starting off w/ 12 of 17 on the road, which is apparently the most in the league over that span, and the most recent stretch was a 3 games in 4 nights road trip vs two of the best teams in the league (bucks, celts) and another likely playoff team (wolves) that also treats jimmy's annual visit like game 7 of the finals. even w/in the context of taking it easy in the regular season it feels like they were particularly not caring a whole lot about the last two games

what were they saying about him in the offseason

just that he was super motivated to have a great season, was looking awesome in camp etc. also he did like a whole SI cover where he talked about making it back to the finals, did the emo thing to draw more attention to himself, has repeatedly said stuff in press conferences like "don't ask me about 82 games ask me about 98 games" and shit like that. if he was feeling uncomfortable physically or w/ the roster he's been doing a lot of PR to lie about it

ah i see, re not caring about reg season record it is prob good to at least try to get in the top six so you dont just randomly lose a game or two and get knocked out, which almost happened to the heat last year

could be jimmy just has a lil knee tendonitis and its not that big of a deal

ah i see, re not caring about reg season record it is prob good to at least try to get in the top six so you dont just randomly lose a game or two and get knocked out, which almost happened to the heat last year

― lag∞n, Wednesday, November 1, 2023 12:50 PM (twenty-three seconds ago)

yes. people also forget that in the season after the bubble they got the 6 seed finishing one game behind the knicks & hawks who tied for 4-5. the heat got smoked by the bucks in round 1 while the hawks beat a shitty knicks team and then rode the simmons meltdown to the east finals. if the heat had simply won a single more game in that regular season they prob would prob be sitting here as having made the ECF in all four jimmy years. so they've already been burned by it! but i think they don't care and i understand the feeling that seeding doesn't matter if you aren't healthy

yeah i dont think home court matters that much but having to play multiple rounds of good teams is bad, maybe making the top five is the move

just feels like this year especially you want to avoid the bucks or celtics in round 1 but i kinda feel like actually the heat would love to play the bucks again in a 1-8 series. i don't think the fanbase handles stress as well as the organization does

lol

can’t wear heat culture jerseys and lose to the wizards (on a neon red court), let’s just say that

idk heat culture seems like more of a playoff thing

30-11 w/ 3 blocks (14-16 from the line) for bam tonight a game after a 22-20-11 triple double vs the lakers

saw a heat reporter note that bam takes the match up vs JJJ personally (team USA hierarchy stuff, i assume)

win in memphis tonight was the first of 9 out of 10 on the road (4 game road trip, 1 game at home, 5 game road trip)

the broadcast team noted they're on the road for 17 of the next 19 days

if they're at .500 and healthy at the end of all that i think they'll be in a pretty good spot

jaime jaquez jr hit the dagger 3 to beat memphis tonight in what i have to assume was the first battle of JJJs in nba history

― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Wednesday, November 8, 2023 10:41 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

how’s he been? he was one of the guys I was really hoping would fall to denver

― k3vin k., Thursday, November 9, 2023 2:53 AM (nineteen hours ago)

answering this here...

there's not much volume in his offensive game right now but he's shooting 50% from the floor and has a 2:1 A:TO ratio. he's shot 12-17 over the last three games. he just has good feel for the game, he's not trying to do too much out there. he figures out ways to get himself makable looks in the lane.

then there are also plays like this where he comes off his guy, strips jarren, beats two guys down the floor, flies thru the air avoiding marcus smart to lay it in where you can see some of the athletic pop that shows up when he gets a head of steam on the fast break.

This is just pure feel from Jaime Jaquez pic.twitter.com/K9mQhn5Hrj

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) November 9, 2023

his viability this year and in the playoffs will come down to whether he can make threes. i think if he can just make corner threes consistently he'll be a good player because when he is moving towards the basket he's generally good whether he has the ball in his hands or is cutting.

i think his ceiling is something like PJ tucker -- he's stout enough to play the 4 but can hang on the perimeter too. tucker has a pretty similar feel on offense. i don't think jaime is that good of a defender and he prob has more offensive skill than PJ, but you can already envision a lot of games where jaime is primarily spending his time on offense in the corner and either shooting or making plays from there, picking up some junk points, and then guarding the opposing 4.

i posted some duncan on wemby highlights in the other thread for laughs, but he was legitimately great vs the spurs and has looked better than ever this season, in particular from inside the arc where he's just noticeably a lot better

coming into the season his career high in 2PA/g was 1.4 in the 20-21 season -- this year he's at 3.7 2PA/g and scoring at a 62% rate, which is both very good and aligned w/ his career numbers just at 2.5x the volume. he finished twice in the paint off the dribble last night, including a tough floater on vassell... he also had a nice finish on the fastbreak

Duncan's bag of tricks is starting to seem never-ending 👀 always something new, he led us to our comeback win pic.twitter.com/mCQgtyASDA

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) November 13, 2023

with herro out during the playoffs and now again for a multi week stretch, the heat are leaning heavily on the duncan-bam two man game to generate offense and duncan is showing the ability to expand that beyond their typical balletic passing and screening routines around the 3 point line

Duncan Robinson less than 10 feet from the basket:

Last regular season- 0.7 attempts a night on 59% shooting

(Playoffs went up to 1.4 attempts which felt like a major leap)

This season- 3.3 attempts a night on 64% shooting

That jump is really wild

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) November 13, 2023

he's also been the best high volume pull up three point shooter this year ... to say this offense needs shots like this is an understatement

40 players have attempted at least 20 pull-up threes so far this season

Who is shooting the highest % among all those pull-up shooters?

Duncan Robinson at 47% shooting

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) November 13, 2023

he's an easy guy to root for. he was written off two years ago as an albatross contract & could've just happily enjoyed his riches and rode off into the sunset w/ a podcast sponsored by a gambling company lined up. but he went back in and improved his game and reclaimed his spot and then some.

meanwhile bam is on what is possibly the best stretch of his career

his last 4 games have gone

22-19-10, 2 blocks, 2 steals
30-11-1, 3 blocks, 1 steal
26-17-4, 2 blocks, 2 steals
24-11-6, 0 blocks, 3 steals

cherry picking some numbers here but

Over his last four games, Bam Adebayo has averaged 25.5 points on 53.7% shooting , 14.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks.

The only other players in NBA history to do that over four games are:

Hakeem (2x)
Bird (2x)
Giannis (2x)
Kareem (13x)

— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) November 13, 2023

he's really been playing like a maniac. incredible intensity on both ends of the floor. he's actually 6th in the league in FTA per game -- the only guys ahead of him are embiid, giannis, dame, trae and KD. bam hasn't shot under 75% from the line in 4 years, if he can even hover around the 10-15 range in FTA/g in the league he will be a different offensive player. right now his post game is looking really refined, he's finding his little paint jumper in rhythm, and he's overall just shouldering and relishing offensive responsibility to a different degree -- recognizing key possessions, demanding the ball, getting to his spot, making his jumper. efficiency, intelligence, and effort.

and then he's still doing stuff like this a few times per game that puts him on a very short list of nba players from a size/athleticism/skill perspective

This is just an insane sequence

Recognizing the need for help, making the block, running the floor, hitting the cut perfectly

Bam Adebayo man

pic.twitter.com/tDFbKntPcp

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) November 12, 2023

if he can even hover around the 10-15 range in FTA/g

I’m confused he’s averaging 7 FTA/g which is really good but 10+ would be lebron/harden level

top 10 to 15 in the league in fta

oic

bam absolutely killed zinger in the second game of the season fouled him out in 30mins, he looked really strong and decisive driving from the perimeter and whatnot

yeah. they gave him the captaincy this year with haslem retiring and he’s playing with an aggressiveness that just feels like him accepting a new level of responsibility on offense. i don’t think his skill level has jumped the way it has in previous years, it’s his confidence and willingness to assert himself physically on offense

he’s also averaging a career high in blocks this year (1.4/g) and i was observing a conversation on twitter about how their perimeter defense is stronger with this roster which is allowing bam to play in drop more. he’s been really effective this year guarding the ball handler in PNR and then sagging off and disrupting the alley oop

All about that White Chocolate today!

Happy Birthday J. Will 🎂 pic.twitter.com/CGYkxF1PHN

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) November 18, 2023

duncan "vanilla pudding" robinson

22 points in 30 mins on 6-9 shooting from 3 for duncan tonight

coming into the game there were 25 players in the league averaging 7 threes per game. duncan ranked 5th in terms of 3pt percentage (41.1%) of that group. the only 3 guys higher than him are steph (44.7%), maxey (44.6%), halliburton (43.2%), and luka (42%).

he's been pretty easily the best role player shooter in the league this year -- the only other non-star shooting above even 40% from 3 at high volume this year is tim hardaway jr at 40.5% on 9 attempts per game. porter jr is at 37% on 7.3 attempts per game, hield is at 36.7% on 7.5 attempts, max strus is at 36% on 7.7 attempts.

plus the fact that he has expanded his game from inside the arc, shown some ability to finish at the rim a bit off pump fakes etc... if he keeps this up he should get real 6th man of the year consideration. he's not even like completely awful on defense. he's def below average but still competent enough to stay on the floor in multiple finals, conference finals etc

coming into the game there were 25 players in the league averaging 7 threes per game

sorry to be clear i mean 7 three point *attempts* per game. the list of players averaging 7 made threes per game is zero names long

easily the best role player shooter in the league this year

Put that on a tee-shirt and maybe he'd autograph it for you.

go away, you don’t have the license to be a dick to me in this thread

and that’s actually a really good thing to be in today’s NBA!

well apparently jimmy loves jovic (not playing at all this year)

Why did Jimmy Butler make the trip to Wisconsin to watch the Skyforce last night?

Butler: “Niko. Got to go see my boy. I’m a huge Niko fan. I think he’s going to help this organization well after I’m done here. That’s my dawg. I love him to death."

— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) November 21, 2023

I didn't think you'd take that so hard. But you did and I apologize.

i will take shit from people who will also engage genuinely with me on this topic i care about in this thread that is 90% my posts. if you’re just popping in w/ some zing you can save it. you’re in group 2

this shit means something to me pic.twitter.com/Sxkkb0NXli

— flan artest (@FarFarGone) December 2, 2023

love this dude

another borderline remarkable duncan robinson game last night in toronto -- put up 21-6-7 and had the ball in his hands shredding the raptors in pick and roll for much of the 4th quarter. it felt slightly hallucinatory

we know duncan and bam have their two man game down pat, but the heat were clearing out for duncan & orlando robinson to run PNR last night and the raptors simply could not stop it

these are not incredibly complicated reads or anything but he repeatedly put himself and/or orlando in a great spot to score easily and efficiently down the stretch

Now we get to the stuff I really wanted to talk about: the 4th quarter

Offense hit a wall, so use Duncan as your hub out of an empty corner

PnR coverage scrambling to defend at the level, and Duncan throws a sweet lead bounce pass to Orlando for the and-1 pic.twitter.com/H3yno6m7V3

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) December 7, 2023

Pass to Duncan off the screen into a high PnR, and yeah I wouldn’t go under on the screen like that too often

As soon as Duncan sees him about to go under, he’s in his shot motion pic.twitter.com/d8a4lJS8xd

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) December 7, 2023

slow play reading the defense and just casually easing in to a wrong foot one handed runner off the glass was when i was like -- oh

So Heat go empty corner again for Duncan

Raptors containing Orlando on the roll after a few possessions ago

Duncan baits that into a runner off the glass

In games like this, find a player/action that’s working and counter the coverage

That’s what they began doing pic.twitter.com/Gq2rEwa8rF

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) December 7, 2023

this one basically clinched the game ... doesn't panic with the big switched onto him, let's orlando pin his guy under the hoop, little bounce pass, easy bucket

So let’s go empty corner for these 2 one more time

Duncan finds space and now sees the coverage is a late switch

Patiently waits for Orlando to get his seal, and that’s a win for the possession

Being able to make reads of the different coverage play after play is huge to see pic.twitter.com/y7ZbqLcKvO

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) December 7, 2023

i really hope he gets his due consideration for 6th man of the year. up to 49/44/84 shooting and blowing away his career highs in PPG (15.0) and APG (2.9) w/ no corresponding jump in turnovers. he's also blowing away his career numbers in terms of how many of his shots are being assisted. right now for his career 82% of his 2 point FGs have been assisted -- this year he is at 67%. his career number for 3 point FGs being assisted is 95% -- this year it is at 84%.

you wouldn't say he's a new or different player exactly because he still looks a lot like duncan robinson -- it's just a markedly improved version that is showing up on the court every night now. with jimmy and bam in and out of the line up and herro on a prolonged absence, it's not a stretch to say that duncan has been the most important player on the team given the degree to which they run offense thru him now. last night they sat lowry, in toronto, for basically the entire 4th quarter, had josh richardson in as "point guard" and put the game on duncan's back.

and then the most shocking thing of all is this, specifically the final play in this clip (at 49 seconds) when scottie barnes isos duncan at the top of the arc, drives on him, spins, goes for the lay up and is... just draped and contested the entire time. scottie barnes isn't kevin durant or anything but these kinda guys used to treat duncan like a traffic cone

Some Duncan Robinson defense from last night

One of his best performances on that end pic.twitter.com/JJ3rcvRzGO

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) December 7, 2023

every time I watch a heat game he does something that makes me do a double take, I need to update my expectations

he was seemingly out of the rotation for most of last season it seemed, very weird turnaround. would be cool if he kept it going.

oh he wasn’t seemingly out of the rotation. he was out of the rotation.

the thing is that he has noticeably improved his game in order to earn his minutes back… he had to go back in the lab. what’s unique is that typically when a guy comes out of nowhere to score a huge contract and then immediately flops after getting the bag we don’t then see the redemption story happening with the same franchise. he’s essentially a “change the scenery” guy except he didn’t actually change any scenery

similarly rare to see a guy inarguably be tabbed as one of the worst contracts in the NBA shift it back not only to “ok this isn’t killing us anymore” but all the way to potentially being a value deal on the same contract

I feel like the turning point for him last season was a string of games late in last season / into the playoffs where Duncan started racking up at least 1-2 pump-fake drive wide open layups, and then added a few wide-open cut layups throughout the playoffs, and it feels like he's kept it up since then.

yeah i think less so the cutting which he developed earlier as a counter to teams “top locking” him but he definitely started showing the pump and drive game early in last year’s playoffs, doing stuff like taking jrue holiday off the dribble and scoring a lay up over him where you’re just like “whaaat?????” he’s carried that over to this season & even expanded it. he’s tall enough to get his shot off on most guys and has so far shown pretty good touch from floater range

There was like a 5-10 game run where he got a wide open layup off of doing basically nothing but going to the basket. It was so clearly that the entire world knew he would do anything but drive to the hoop to shoot, and that perception was so ingrained that he was still getting some of these in the playoffs.

It's cool that his game has finally opened up from freakishly one-dimensional to some more varied skills. Sucked to see someone clearly struggle w/ their role like Duncan did last year; he never stopped shooting, but he was shooting so badly that they had to move him to the back of the rotation so he couldn't play enough minutes to hurt them.

The funny thing is that he wasn't a truly awful, has-the-yips type shooter during his long slump – still above 30% 3pt shooting, and still had defenses chasing him all over the place to defend the shots. Was just falling way short of justifying his contract. Glad he's back!