love to have the data in front of me
― k3vin k., Thursday, 28 December 2017 18:03 (six years ago) link
gotta have my datum
― lag∞n, Thursday, 28 December 2017 18:04 (six years ago) link
baseball has so many isolated, individual actions (batting and pitching) that happen thousands of times in the exact same way over there course of the seasonfootball seems like it's even more difficult for analytics than basketball, like an individual running play - did the back make a great move or power through contact? did the blocking scheme result in a big hole? did an individual o lineman overpower someone? did someone take a bad angle? tackle poorly? misread the play? seems nearly impossible to use analytics in meaningful ways
― Joan Digimon (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 28 December 2017 18:28 (six years ago) link
yeah the current football analytics are horseshit.
― call all destroyer, Thursday, 28 December 2017 18:35 (six years ago) link
yeah and the whole concept of downs really complicates things too, a good football analytics running joke is how footballoutsiders consistently rates the patriots as a middling to good team while they continue to produce the actual greatest results the game has ever seen
― lag∞n, Thursday, 28 December 2017 18:37 (six years ago) link
nba.com and that tweet have him taking 9 3s so far where the charts show 1 and 0 respectively?
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 3:54 AM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
heaves?
― micah, Thursday, 28 December 2017 21:46 (six years ago) link
this is an interesting discussion
part of the problem as alluded to upthread is that the baseball stat revolution happened before anyone including teams realized such information was worth being commodified, so bill james, tom tango etc were just working in the public sphere bcuz they had no choice. so pretty much the entire foundation of advanced stats in baseball is publicly available formulas. basketball came after that commodification... ben falk's site is a great example of something that would have been free if it started even 5 years ago.
i do wonder if there's some market for a fangraphs of basketball, basically... a place that centralizes the main advanced stats and publicizes some proprietary info (fangraphs buys info from firms) while also running an editorial site that contextualizes all of that w/ articles. maybe this exists and i don't know about it but it seems like the current relationship b/w basketball writing and basketball stats are sites that publish the stats and then writers that contextualize on mainstream sites or smaller blogs.
― J0rdan S., Friday, 29 December 2017 18:41 (six years ago) link
seems like "the analytically minded basketball fan" has kinda moved on from advanced stats to understanding basketball plays which is interesting in that it runs contrary to numbers guys hierarchy of knowledge
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 18:51 (six years ago) link
but i think its correct as far as how basketball functions the scheme is the most fundamental thing its the context on which everything else depends
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 18:52 (six years ago) link
statistic strives to normalize the scheme in order to make an apples to apples comparison across the league but its just really hard, maybe impossible, and maybe not that useful from a teams perspective for actual basketball business which is interesting
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 18:56 (six years ago) link
the big catch all stats are failures but the granular data is easily understood within the context of the scheme and is translatable across schemes if you understand the schemes
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:01 (six years ago) link
like is some blackbox defensive metric saying the giannis isnt that good of a defender for who knows what reason, well when we examine the player tracking data it says he is a very good defender in all aspects of the game except on the perimeter, when we look at his perimeter defense it says hes excellent when matched up with his man but struggles when switching, what do we know about the bucks defensive scheme, we know that it encourages tons of chaotic double teams and switching which doesnt work good, from out investigation we can conclude that giannis contrary to what the fancy advanced stat says in is fact likely an excellent defender who is playing in a bad scheme and would thrive in a good one, which not coincidentally is the same conclusion one wld reach by watching him play, thank u this has been my nba stats fan fic
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:09 (six years ago) link
now u cld try to create a stat which notices when everyone on a team tends to struggle in certain areas and labels it scheme and tries to account for it but it prob wldnt work and whats the point anyway like maybe its a scheme issue or maybe its a personnel which is a differentiation which is easy for a human to understand and very difficult for a computer to and youre never going to have a 100% quant basketball team so why not let the computers do the stuff theyre good at and let the humans do the stuff they are, humans are gonna make the decisions anyway
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:18 (six years ago) link
in conclusion in the words of smart stats boys everywhere "its stauskas"
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:23 (six years ago) link
ive found recently that reading about NBA plays makes the game feel super boring to me
― J0rdan S., Friday, 29 December 2017 19:24 (six years ago) link
I get the appeal of stats, but I'd rather hear (current) players' and (opposing) coaches' thoughts about/ratings of players than someone like Zack Lowe (who I really like) talk about stats. Way more interesting and feel like I learn more.
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 29 December 2017 19:24 (six years ago) link
whereas w/ the NFL it's the opposite
― J0rdan S., Friday, 29 December 2017 19:25 (six years ago) link
I geek out on scouting reports like some people do on stats
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 29 December 2017 19:25 (six years ago) link
like understanding all the movements and battles away from the ball in football help contextualize the action that draws your eyes, whereas in basketball when i read about that stuff the game starts to feel orchestrated and motorized in a way i find dispiriting
― J0rdan S., Friday, 29 December 2017 19:26 (six years ago) link
agree
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 29 December 2017 19:26 (six years ago) link
huh weird wldnt have thought of that i feel like it helps me see the game better and plays in basketball are so much more wide open than in football anyway, theyre just sketches really, also the best nba players consistently destroy all schemes employed against them which is a neat feature and a good argument against stats tendency to value efficiency above everything and glorify role players who like hit a lot of open threes
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:33 (six years ago) link
nfl fans appreciation of scheme is def way ahead of the nbas tho, almost entirely because of madden (the game)
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 19:40 (six years ago) link
i think nba schematic stuff can be interesting but it’s a little abstract and in the back of my mind i’m always thinking about how many teams even basic scheme breaks down and teams have to improv.
― call all destroyer, Friday, 29 December 2017 20:13 (six years ago) link
its scheme vs scheme but sometimes u gotta just make something happen!
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 20:17 (six years ago) link
its not any coincidence that the best team over the long haul the spurs is also the most dedicated to quality robust scheming
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 20:18 (six years ago) link
It's interesting to observe and contemplate at times, but most of the time I don't want to have to think like a coach when I'm watching which is why I agree w/Jordan for most part.
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 29 December 2017 21:00 (six years ago) link
like Thibs (to take the extreme example) does not look like he ever enjoys watching NBA guys play and I don't want to be anywhere near him on that spectrum.
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 29 December 2017 21:01 (six years ago) link
reading about nba at a granular level has def improved my understanding and enjoyment of the game, but i think it's mostly about the way pick and rolls playout, defensive coverages generally etc. reading about set plays and that kinda stuff doesn't appeal to me much right now, tho it can be fun to recognize plays happening in real time
― J0rdan S., Friday, 29 December 2017 21:14 (six years ago) link
otm. i like when teams run plays that you start to recognize like elevator doors when someone is hot, or the hammer play that the spurs made now everyone does. but for the most part i just like to watch without thinking about it too much. i do like watching defensive switching, though.
― Spottie, Friday, 29 December 2017 21:19 (six years ago) link
yeah i mean im def not in coach mode when im watching nba my awareness of plays and schemes has gone from like 1% to 7% im still mostly in it for sick hooping and big wins
― lag∞n, Friday, 29 December 2017 22:13 (six years ago) link
knowledge of "advanced stats" and knowledge of schemes/plays are of course not diametrically opposed things, as lagoon mentions you need some sort of grasp of scheme to be able to place advanced stats into context, and to understand the limitations of individual statistics
― k3vin k., Friday, 29 December 2017 22:17 (six years ago) link
boogie32-20-8-2-5 in a loss to dallas
― Spottie, Saturday, 30 December 2017 03:31 (six years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSWYds0VQAA42YC.jpg
― Spottie, Sunday, 31 December 2017 07:01 (six years ago) link
38 in 26 minutes tonight
― Spottie, Sunday, 31 December 2017 07:02 (six years ago) link
0 TOs too, pretty rare for him
― Spottie, Sunday, 31 December 2017 07:03 (six years ago) link
dammit i love this man
Steph Curry is so much fun it's weird pic.twitter.com/UaqYfHTZEW— Drew Shiller (@DrewShiller) December 31, 2017
― Spottie, Sunday, 31 December 2017 07:05 (six years ago) link
derozan franchise record 52 pts
52-5-8-1-1
― Spottie, Tuesday, 2 January 2018 03:18 (six years ago) link
he's having a nice year.
― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 2 January 2018 03:22 (six years ago) link
could be why:
Last season, DeRozan took 31% of his shots from 16 ft to the 3 pt line. 8% of his shots were 3s.So far this season (before tonight's game), the long 2s are down to 18.7% and 3s are up to 16.3%.— Dave DuFour (@DaveDuFourNBA) January 2, 2018
― Spottie, Tuesday, 2 January 2018 08:08 (six years ago) link
Gary Harris
36-4-3-2
14/17 fg
― Spottie, Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:03 (six years ago) link
he's legit
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:04 (six years ago) link
25-13 for kelly o tonight. kind of been a great signing by the heat.
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:05 (six years ago) link
He’s outplayed whiteside a bit, no?
― Spottie, Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:07 (six years ago) link
whiteside was hurt for a month and has been kinda miserable since coming back lsat week. boban was working him tonight.
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:09 (six years ago) link
kelly can kill most centers on offense but has some rim protection issues vs teams that have guys who really get to the rim
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:15 (six years ago) link
3 years after the pistons stunned the world with their pick, stanley johnson (hurt) and justise winslow (hurt) combined for 0 points tonight
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:16 (six years ago) link
lol. every time i look at a stanley johnson statline this year i swear its like 0/8 or 0/9 shooting every time
― Spottie, Thursday, 4 January 2018 06:27 (six years ago) link
I was shocked by this stat when I found it.From my article on the main area Porzingis needs to improve upon to take the next step (Insider): https://t.co/daujupdB7A pic.twitter.com/fE6EuC8G14— Ben Falk (@bencfalk) January 4, 2018
― call all destroyer, Thursday, 4 January 2018 18:55 (six years ago) link
yeah I wanted to read that article this morning but I don't subscribe, looked interesting
― k3vin k., Thursday, 4 January 2018 19:10 (six years ago) link
i can't really justify paying for ben's stuff but i wish i did
― call all destroyer, Thursday, 4 January 2018 19:14 (six years ago) link