ITS THE OFFS BABY THE 2023 NBA PLAYOFFS

my hypothesis about the heat this playoffs is that losing herro, oladipo & tucker off last year's roster has resulted in three positive developments

a. very clear definition of roles -- every single player aside from butler & bam is a 3 and D role player w/ the exception of lowry when running the second unit

b. the removal of three one way players has left nearly a full roster of two way players -- guys like caleb martin, gabe vincent etc aren't necessarily better than herro, oladipo or tucker but their games are more balanced between offense & defense. they may not put as much on the table at one end but they take far less off the table at the other end. the roster talent isn't as impressive on paper but they're putting far fewer targets out there (robinson is the one exception & i don't think he'll play a ton in this series)

c. every single non-big role player is either a good shooter *and* a willing shooter or at the very least just a willing shooter, which sometimes matters as much as actually being good at shooting. vincent, strus, robinson, martin, love, lowry is the role player rotation & all of them are averaging at least 4 3PA per game in the playoffs. the other three guys who play are butler, bam & cody zeller. you lose herro but actually have a better offense bcuz you're constantly spaced out & don't have anyone who is scared to shoot (tucker) or horrific at shooting (oladipo)

the conventional wisdom, i think, is that the heat will miss tucker & oladipo in this series defensively & herro's (theoretical) shot creation. and that might be true -- game 3 in boston last year was the game where the heat jumped out to a huge halftime lead, then butler was suddenly ruled out for the rest of the game & the heat hung onto the edge of the cliff by their fingernails the second half. oladipo had 4 steals in that game and i feel like they all led directly to fast break points in the second half. and we know tucker was useful guarding boston's wings. but i do wonder if the heat have a good enough structure as far as team defense goes that they're actually better off w/ a roster slanted towards shooting at the expense of elite individual defense.

i don't think you want to get into a shooting match w/ boston, but that seems to be the game they want to play and i think the heat are far more equipped this playoffs to engage in that than they were last year. the heat had a 110 offensive rating last year in the playoffs, this year they're at 115 and that's w/ facing the bucks & a thibs team. the defense has fallen off in tandem but their overall net rating is higher & i do wonder to what extent boston is really committed to just punishing the other team's defense. i still think boston wins the series of course but i do think this one could have a much different feel than last year's series

re shooting matches, i just read this re phi-bos game 7

<b>Shotquality.com calculates the expected value of every shot taken during a game, taking into account each player’s situational shot profile and adjusting for game situations such as heavily contested shots. Based on the expected results of the shots taken in Sunday’s game, according to the site, the final score should have been 109-109. Instead, it was a trouncing.</b>

bah

Shotquality.com calculates the expected value of every shot taken during a game, taking into account each player’s situational shot profile and adjusting for game situations such as heavily contested shots. Based on the expected results of the shots taken in Sunday’s game, according to the site, the final score should have been 109-109. Instead, it was a trouncing.

lol i suck

yeah when the other team doesn’t care if any of your role players shoot wide open threes you’re gonna have very high shot quality… i don’t really trust those stats

the heat are one of the most consistent shot quality out performers bcuz they have good shooters who need to be contested and also have difficult three point shooting (off hand offs and such) built into their offense but train their players to make those shots

as someone who played a lot of beer pong in college I totally understand what happened in the 2nd half of Game 7. sometimes you just clank 15 consecutive shots off the rim

nugs 5 celtics 6

Celtics in 6, Nugs in 7

jordan your analysis of the changes to the heat is interesting, i like it. series is absolutely going at least 6.

I’m nervous!!

going up against lebron is never good for the nerves

that song was not good

bro the shot clocks aren’t working??

jokic got a haircut it’s absolutely over for these hoes

both teams wearing acceptable uniform colors, good start for the series

nugs locked in

more like hugs locked in, im feeeling very good

good start

lol winning is good but winning by losing mate that cant be beat xp

everything is going right for the nuggets right now. play your best defense without fouling, rebound the ball, keep them in motion on the other end, hit your shots. let’s go

the nuggets size is going to be so key. if they can control the boards they are in really good shape

gordon just wrecked reaves lol

gordon bullying fools

That was ridiculous

nuggs are really clicking not much you can do

jfc joker hogging the rebounds

10!

Joker on pace for 50 rebounds

11 boards for jok in 8 mins

lakers transition d....

12 now

good reminder that defensive rebounding is an important component of defense ;)

jok’s been so good at the traditionally visible parts of defense so far too, super active hands, he’s stripped AD like 3 times already

Not to mention some really sick assists, take notes Embiid

disappointed that he didn’t get the first-quarter double-double

if memory serves he has the fastest triple double in history or at least since the merger or whatever

https://www.allaboutbasketball.us/basketball-records/fastest-triple-doubles-in-nba-history.html

14:33. he’s got some work to do

i would highly recommend to darvin ham not to bench lebron & AD at the same time in this series….

Schröder is doing exactly what I would do if I were an NBA player: pass to Lebron James

jeff green is so fucking bad

not a guy i love to watch play basketball

nuggets dont seem like they have a plan for those bron post ups

jokic is gonna get his boards but when he’s behind the free throw line the lakers absolutely cannot get killed on the offensive glass

jokic hard dunk 🚨

jokic had like 6 dunks this season and he’s yammed in AD’s eye twice in 20 minutes

wow bruce brown very aggressive here good for him

nuggets dont seem like they have a plan for those bron post ups

― lag∞n, Tuesday, May 16, 2023 9:37 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think you just live with him one on one and try to avoid fouling

idk i think hell kill you especially if he gets the switch first

why are dudes biting on jokic threes ha