ITS THE OFFS BABY THE 2023 NBA PLAYOFFS

i think melton is a fine player off the bench at 8m/year

Yah he was cold but just shouldn’t be shooting that much, harden kept kicking it to him. Prob best suited to be a defensive specialist like GP2 or something.

i’ve been saying for the last two seasons that shooting is a problem for them and i’m always told i’m wrong but they don’t have a single wing player who needs to be guarded in a playoff series. tobias averaged 13 ppg on 26% shooting from three in this series. house and niang played a combined 10 mins today. tucker is never guarded.

daryl has done a fine job of putting competence around embiid which is gonna be good for high playoff seeds but come these high level series they don’t have a single role player who is above average on both ends of the floor. all their guys are one way guys and it’s really slanted toward defense. maxey is the closest thing they have to an elite shooter but spot up shooting or just being a spacer is not his game, and he is always gonna be the target on defense. they have some really big picture stuff to figure out but at bare minimum they need to find multiple guys who can reliably make three pointers.

Sixers had the best 3P% of the regular season, though they were middle of the pack in 3PA.

Other than Maxey, none of their 3P shooters can really get their own shot and Maxey has to pick his spots because he's so short. If he were two inches taller . . . .

They always seem like they have too many one dimensional guys. Defensive specialists, shooters, whatever. Would kill for a couple of Brogdon, White, Smart interchangeable guys you don't have to hide.

I don't see any moves that get them over the hump because at the end of the day this is an Embiid issue.

Re: crows coming home to roost for Embiid, it's not that Philly will now trade him, it's that the media and fans will stop making excuses:

https://www.phillyvoice.com/instant-observations-sixers-celtics-game-7-joel-embiid-james-harden-doc-rivers/

This performance is exactly what people have worried about with Embiid for so many years, supporters and critics alike. The missed shots are one thing, but he looked completely shaken and unprepared for this moment just days after saying out loud that this was a "fun" opportunity. It's easy to paint him as a frontrunner — a guy who is as good as good gets when things are rolling, but can't be counted on to pull the Sixers out of tough situations. There was no fight from him when they needed it, no extra effort on the glass or toughness befitting a star player who was in this moment.

Over the last two games of this series, Embiid had a chance to quiet all the doubts about his personal legacy up to this point. The criticism he has received — whether it has been in good faith or as part of useless MVP debates — will grow louder locally and nationally, and he can't blame anyone for that other than himself. This was simply not good enough for the best player on a team hoping to win a title.

It will take a long time for his reputation to recover from this game, but the bigger question will be if it ever does. We're deep enough into his career to ask whether this is simply where the road ends for a team led by Embiid. Short of supplying him with an ass-kicker as his co-star, which they had in Jimmy Butler back in 2019, the evidence is stacked against this guy as a title-winning leader.

which they had in Jimmy Butler back in 2019

ouch

The Embiid situation is interesting. He’s overrated. I’ve said this from the beginning. But the most interesting story is the Celtics pick-and-roll defense. It was wild. The Embiid-Harden pick-and-roll is, on paper, incredible. Yet the Celtics were able to shutdown this offense, sometimes, like yesterday, entirely. It didn’t even matter who was on the court. I came into this series thinking Jaylen’s defense was slightly overrated and Robert Williams’ defense was wildly overrated but … the proof is in the pudding.

This performance is exactly what people have worried about with Embiid for so many years, supporters and critics alike. The missed shots are one thing, but he looked completely shaken and unprepared for this moment just days after saying out loud that this was a "fun" opportunity. It's easy to paint him as a frontrunner — a guy who is as good as good gets when things are rolling, but can't be counted on to pull the Sixers out of tough situations. There was no fight from him when they needed it, no extra effort on the glass or toughness befitting a star player who was in this moment.

OTM—everyone claims (rightfully) about Doc’s inability to make timely adjustments but Embiid is somehow even less successful at making timely adjustments.

mazzulla putting rob into the starting lineup changed the series it totally gummed up that pick n roll and doc did not have a counter

having tatum hunt embiid on the perimeter was another good adjustment, took a big defensive advantage embiids rim protection and turned it into a disadvantage embiids permitter defense

one odd thing about harden being one of the most prolific three point shooters ever is he really likes to shoot them in isolation and not nearly as much in the pick and roll, a lot of time he totally commits to going downhill off the pick and never looks to pull up even when he has space, its weird hes just ignoring a whole option there doesnt seem great

when he does shoot off the pick and roll its almost a different play one that hes playing for the shot

harden’s entire game now is predicated on being able to make the step back 3 in isolation. if he can hit that shot he has a good game. if not he’s borderline useless to of course actively harmful the worst player you’ve ever seen in your life

he was good doing point guard stuff this year and even yesterday he was doing some decent drive and kicks but like his game in general it was just too static and predictable for the big stage, hes just not a fast dynamic basketball thinker which is bad for the playoffs when good teams are taking away all your plans

yeah i mean in real games. in the regular season he is a good point guard but whatever

hes just not good in the playoffs, has never been good in the playoffs, i guess everyone knows that

i guess they did try the empty corner, not sure this is really "a play" tho

Tobias sets a screen to bring Rob into the action, Rob wants the switch though.

Clock winding down and here comes Brogdon on the double. Harden tosses up an airball.

The key again is poor spacing allowing the Celtics to zone up. 3 Sixers are hovering near the corner. pic.twitter.com/qf4Sx3GeAq

— Pull up shoot (@NElGHT_) May 15, 2023

celtics had phillys offense in shambles

Celtics get creative again with the peel switch on the Harden-Embiid PnR as Tatum rotates over.

I thought this was a weird Harden TO, but someone, *anyone* should be lifting to the wing here. Instead, PJ and Maxey both set a screen for Melton who’s camped in the corner. pic.twitter.com/qZhlH4Cv2h

— Pull up shoot (@NElGHT_) May 15, 2023

The key again is poor spacing allowing the Celtics to zone up. 3 Sixers are hovering near the corner. pic.twitter.com/qf4Sx3GeAq

what on earth is embiid doing here. clearing the lane for harden to 'cook' i guess??

yup, and then on that last play, what is tucker doing? he just gets lost in no man's land

it's gotta be weird playing with harden, he gets a lot of assists out of his drive and kick but it doesn't really get you in the rhythm of moving without the ball

xxp i think the move embiid is doing there is called "taking a breather"

yeah ton of standing around waiting for him to do his thing xp

many tatum highlights in here some real sicko stuff https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/5/15/23723991/tatum-delivers-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-philadelphia76ers-game-7

predix
celtics in 5
nuggets in 6

another ILH bowl finals woul.d be nice

pretty stoked for the wcf fascinating match up, if ad can play like he has so far it should be tight if not nuggs win easy

nugs 6
celtics 6

i can only make the one prediction, until it comes true

listening to thinking basketball podcast and both guys got so discombobulated by lakers-nuggs that they suggested players guard guys on their own teams

to be fair i dont know which role players are on which team either

now theyre talking about how the celtics should kill the heat but theyre starting to believe in the heat legend, the thing theyre not considering is that the celtics refuse to ever make anything easy

this celtics team is more talented on paper but feels much more beatable than last year's team did

i think theyre solidly better this year not quite as consistent on defense but they can still dial it up, tatum and brown tightened up their games white is like a different player brogdon give them a third creator for when either of the jays sit, rob hasnt quite had his insane level bounce since the injury but hes prob more solid and def better than his injured self from last year, horf is a year older but can still bring it, they run better offense, i like this team better especially considering theyve got experience now, also everyone seems fresher

they do like to take their foot off the gas its just their thing, tbf thats been going on for a while tho through three coaches, something about these guys, i think theyre willing to play contemporary nba offense and understand why its good but deep down they really just want to play bad heroball

theres also just something workman like about them too, a lot of times it wont seem like theyre playing that good but then you look at the numbers and they are, just going about their business forcing bad shots and generating good ones

the regular season prob somewhat underrates them too even tho they finished #2 in both offense and defense (nba.com version) because they had a lot of injuries, tho i guess you could make the argument that their depth allowed them to withstand injuries better than most teams

the athletic contends that time lord is “jumpy” this year, biting hard on shot fakes. possibly a consequence of so much time off

i mean the man does like to block a shot

i'm curious how many of these celtics-heat games take the shape of the final two bucks-heat games where the bucks had 12-15 point leads for most of the game before blowing things in the final 6 mins of the game. the celtics have that MO, but they also have the ability, via tatum's shooting, to extricate themselves at the end in a way that the bucks did not

my hypothesis about the heat this playoffs is that losing herro, oladipo & tucker off last year's roster has resulted in three positive developments

a. very clear definition of roles -- every single player aside from butler & bam is a 3 and D role player w/ the exception of lowry when running the second unit

b. the removal of three one way players has left nearly a full roster of two way players -- guys like caleb martin, gabe vincent etc aren't necessarily better than herro, oladipo or tucker but their games are more balanced between offense & defense. they may not put as much on the table at one end but they take far less off the table at the other end. the roster talent isn't as impressive on paper but they're putting far fewer targets out there (robinson is the one exception & i don't think he'll play a ton in this series)

c. every single non-big role player is either a good shooter *and* a willing shooter or at the very least just a willing shooter, which sometimes matters as much as actually being good at shooting. vincent, strus, robinson, martin, love, lowry is the role player rotation & all of them are averaging at least 4 3PA per game in the playoffs. the other three guys who play are butler, bam & cody zeller. you lose herro but actually have a better offense bcuz you're constantly spaced out & don't have anyone who is scared to shoot (tucker) or horrific at shooting (oladipo)

the conventional wisdom, i think, is that the heat will miss tucker & oladipo in this series defensively & herro's (theoretical) shot creation. and that might be true -- game 3 in boston last year was the game where the heat jumped out to a huge halftime lead, then butler was suddenly ruled out for the rest of the game & the heat hung onto the edge of the cliff by their fingernails the second half. oladipo had 4 steals in that game and i feel like they all led directly to fast break points in the second half. and we know tucker was useful guarding boston's wings. but i do wonder if the heat have a good enough structure as far as team defense goes that they're actually better off w/ a roster slanted towards shooting at the expense of elite individual defense.

i don't think you want to get into a shooting match w/ boston, but that seems to be the game they want to play and i think the heat are far more equipped this playoffs to engage in that than they were last year. the heat had a 110 offensive rating last year in the playoffs, this year they're at 115 and that's w/ facing the bucks & a thibs team. the defense has fallen off in tandem but their overall net rating is higher & i do wonder to what extent boston is really committed to just punishing the other team's defense. i still think boston wins the series of course but i do think this one could have a much different feel than last year's series

re shooting matches, i just read this re phi-bos game 7

<b>Shotquality.com calculates the expected value of every shot taken during a game, taking into account each player’s situational shot profile and adjusting for game situations such as heavily contested shots. Based on the expected results of the shots taken in Sunday’s game, according to the site, the final score should have been 109-109. Instead, it was a trouncing.</b>

bah

Shotquality.com calculates the expected value of every shot taken during a game, taking into account each player’s situational shot profile and adjusting for game situations such as heavily contested shots. Based on the expected results of the shots taken in Sunday’s game, according to the site, the final score should have been 109-109. Instead, it was a trouncing.

lol i suck

yeah when the other team doesn’t care if any of your role players shoot wide open threes you’re gonna have very high shot quality… i don’t really trust those stats

the heat are one of the most consistent shot quality out performers bcuz they have good shooters who need to be contested and also have difficult three point shooting (off hand offs and such) built into their offense but train their players to make those shots

as someone who played a lot of beer pong in college I totally understand what happened in the 2nd half of Game 7. sometimes you just clank 15 consecutive shots off the rim

nugs 5 celtics 6

Celtics in 6, Nugs in 7

jordan your analysis of the changes to the heat is interesting, i like it. series is absolutely going at least 6.