2022/23 NBA REGULAR SEASON THREAD "TANKING FOR WEMBANYAMA"

I actually think the Hawks have done a really good job in the draft the last few years: okongwu, jalen Johnson, AJ griffin are all very good. Jalen will break out next year

― Heez, Tuesday, April 4, 2023 12:38 PM (seven minutes ago)bookmarkflaglink

the trae era hawks have this weird thing where they have objectively drafted well -- collins, heurter, okongwu, griffin etc -- except w/ those first two players & prob okongwu too i feel like they left a lot on the table in terms of development. those guys proved themselves to be rotation players very quickly and then never (or haven't) gotten better, w/ the exception of heurter who went to a different team & saw all his stats tick up

it is pretty funny how much luka's career is mirroring trae's now but whereas i have a hard time seeing the path for the hawks to get back to the finals in the next three seasons, i don't feel the same about luka. and that just boils down to the differences between those two players, for me

back to the conference finals, obv

its not impossible that the mavs get back to being a decent to good team but theyve got a lot working against them now theyre pretty fucked up id rate a luka trade demand way ahead of another western conf finals appearance

I judge opposing nba coaches on how well they take advantage of Trae’s size. It’s kind of surprising how many teams do not do this. Also I think ppl really underestimate how good of an offensive player trae is

would just like to point out that the "state of the west" is extremely temporary, it's still the stronger conference and will be going forward imo. besides giannis, embiid, tatum, and maybe jimmy (whose team is going nowhere) all of the top 12-15 players in the league play in the west, the best 2 teams (for now) are probably in the east but seeds 4-11 in the west are considerably stronger than the east, this was an injury heavy year which of course is something you can't completely rule out continuing but my money would be on the west being overall stronger for the forseeable future

that all may be true but i'm not sure how it refutes the notion that there is a logjam of elite teams at the top of the east but not at the top of the west thus leaving the west open to be won by a larger group of teams

I think projecting forward 2-3 years especially the west is going to be completely loaded at the top. nuggets and grizzlies should be set to continue competing for a title through that window. suns depending on how they replace cp3 should still be contending. the thunder have serious juggernaut potential. you obv can't rule out the lakers, clippers, or warriors given their chances in the free agent market. meanwhile in the east the bucks, unless they bring in a major free agent, are likely about to start their downswing. seems at least as likely that the mavs are battling for a play-in spot in the next few years as they are to be contending for a chance to make the finals

its hard to predict too far out in todays wild nba

seems at least as likely that the mavs are battling for a play-in spot in the next few years as they are to be contending for a chance to make the finals

― k3vin k., Tuesday, April 4, 2023 1:11 PM (sixteen minutes ago)

i think this is probably true but pairs w/ the notion that the west is going to be uniquely open to this sorta volatility the next few years

what the nuggets look like in the playoffs will go a long way towards projecting the strength of the west over the next few seasons

it’s going to sound like I’m hedging but the west playoffs this year are probably going to be a bloodbath and I doubt it will portend anything long-term, there are just too many teams in the mid seeds who are actually top 4 seeds in a normal season

Luka Doncic mentioned that Mavs haven't been able to recreate chemistry from last season. How much have they missed Jalen Brunson?

"A lot," Doncic said with a pained smile. "I mean, amazing guy, amazing player, for sure."

— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) April 4, 2023

lukas whole thing needs to be examined too, being out of shape, playing awful d, doing absolutely nothing off the ball, these are not the habits of someone who wants stay on top, the heliocentric style is a huge trap too which is on him and the org

― lag∞n, Tuesday, April 4, 2023 9:51 AM (thirty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm. he's sill not top tier to me for those reasons. he's also just extremely pouty and mopey, doesn't seem like a player that other stars want to team up with.

hes also got fam stuff going on and whatever else has him down. hopefully he can get past that and find some joy in the game.

Volatility is deeply embedded in the contemporary NBA, which is fine with me. More messy drama never hurts. I wish they'd drop the love affair with online betting parlors, tho. Inviting that kind of potential for corruption and chaos is the wrong kind of messy drama.

yeah its also just socially/vibes bad eg that guy yelling at brad beal over a bet the other day

he's also just extremely pouty and mopey, doesn't seem like a player that other stars want to team up with.

― four square ups... no punches thrown (Spottie), Tuesday, April 4, 2023 1:43 PM (twenty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeh the body language etc is pretty much as bad as youll see from a star player

The Morant situation really stained the season for me. They were supposed to be the fun team

the mavs situation is orders of magnitude worse now than it was a year ago. who is their third best player?

Could be Jason Kidd

lol

the kings are gonna be a 50 win team this year w/ the no 1 offense and no 26 defense by rating. w/ some slight changes to the supporting cast or just some better shooting i could pretty easily see next year's mavs putting together a similar combo. i wouldn't expect 50 wins but again i think the formula for them to get back into the 4-6 range is not very far fetched. it doesn't solve the larger longer term issues but still

the kings have good players, a good coach and good vibes... but theyve also gotten at least 70 games from all their main rotation dudes.

yeah the kings have had a really nice season but it sort of seems like they've already hit their ceiling

being bad at defense while having the very best offense just doesnt seem like a great way to do things imho

Kings have a lot of players who can go off, Mavs seem like they're gonna look for Luka to do insane things every night. like the thing with the Bucks is you don't need a crazy game from Giannis to win, and it seems the guys on the Mavs who could have big nights here and there all got traded away

xp it's definitely not a recipe for playoff success. i'm just saying that for as much talk as there is/is gonna be about the mavs being in a ditch, the path for them getting back into the thick of the west playoffs next season is not very complicated

they just need to add an all star and like 4 solid rotation players lol. if kyrie walks for nothing they are really screwed.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/DAL.html
rumors swirling in mavs land that they ddint play wood all season so they can sign him to a cheap contract and while that sounds like nonsense, it also sounds like something the mavs would do lol

xp it's definitely not a recipe for playoff success. i'm just saying that for as much talk as there is/is gonna be about the mavs being in a ditch, the path for them getting back into the thick of the west playoffs next season is not very complicated

― J0rdan S., Tuesday, April 4, 2023 5:46 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

we are going in circles, but the point I was trying to make is that the kings being a 3 seed is an aberration and not exactly a recipe you want to follow. it is not a given that the suns best role player holds out, wiggins’ dad dies again, ja gets suspended, lebron/kawhi/AD all play half the season and zion missing the whole season (ok maybe those last ones are in play)… we’re looking at the western conference getting considerably stronger next season, so simply retooling around luka and whatever is left is not going to be a great bet to be competitive next year

if you go back and look at the last decade, if you have a top 5 off rating you're a pretty great bet to be a solid playoff team at worst. now, maybe the mavs w/ luka & kyrie fall more into the bucket of the hawks & blazers who can never overcome the defensive shortcomings regardless the quality of the offense. it's tempting to point to how they've played since the trade and say "well duh that's what would happen" but the mavs are only ~no 20 in off rating since kyrie arrived. which is obv an issue in its own right but if they had a full offseason + season i'd expect them to be way closer to the top 5 which would potentially put them w/in striking distance of making some noise in the offs depending on how the match ups fell

all that stuff about how the west fell on hard times this year.... meh

hard to imagine Kyrie playing more than 50 games a season at this point though

looking at some individual net rating stuff for the mavs this season

dwight powell +5.9
kyrie irving +5.7
tim hardaway jr +3.3
josh green +2.6
luka doncic +1.8
dorian finney smith +0.4
reggie bullock -0.9
christian wood -1.2
jaden hardy -2.0
spencer dinwiddie -2.1
maxi kleber -2.8
javale mcgee -9.0

(god i hate that mcgee signing so much lmao)

here are the mavs top rated 3 man groups this year involving any sort of real minutes

doncic-hardaway-green +2.8
irving-bullock-hardaway +2.8
doncic-green-wood +2.7
doncic-hardaway-powell +2.4
irving-green-powell +2.3
doncic-DFS-powell +2.2
green-bullock-powell +2.2
doncic-dinwiddie-powell +2.0
hardaway-green-wood +2.0

if you flip to sort by negative you will see the name "C. Wood" quiiiiiite often

if you break it down to top 2 man line ups

irving-hardaway jr +6.1
doncic-hardaway +3.6
irving-powell +2.5
doncic-powell +2.3
doncic-green +2.3
irving-doncic +2.2

anyway i'm sure there's noise involved here but i see a lot of luka, kyrie, hardaway, green & powell here which is a good sign given that those guys are all still on the team. i do think you can see the bones of a better team here between those guys, hardy, kleber (healthy). i assume wood won't be back & bullock is an expiring who could prob be moved. dinwiddie is gone. javale i assume will barely play. they need to find a few more good rotation players if kyrie comes back. more than that obv if he doesn't. but i still believe the overall structure of luka + spacing + mobile bigs who don't want the ball can get you right in the mix

my main takeaway after looking at all these numbers is that the mavs should run very far and very fast away from christian wood

mavs 5 worst three man line ups this year

hardaway-wright-wood -4.7
holiday-kleber-wood -3.7
bullock-wright-wood -3.7
doncic-holiday-wood -3.6
doncic-green-wood -3.5

here are the mavs top rated 3 man groups this year involving any sort of real minutes

doncic-hardaway-green +2.8
irving-bullock-hardaway +2.8
doncic-green-wood +2.7
doncic-hardaway-powell +2.4
irving-green-powell +2.3
doncic-DFS-powell +2.2
green-bullock-powell +2.2
doncic-dinwiddie-powell +2.0
hardaway-green-wood +2.0

lol, not a single one includes doncic AND irving. That seems bad for their prospects going forward.

having two weak defenders on the perimeter is tough, wood is also a very bad defender which is prob why he doesnt fare too well

jordan what site/parameters did you use for the mavs lineup data im struggling to replicate on nba.com

they’re on basketball reference too

if u go to teams -> mavs -> lineups

you can also go to lineups from a players page to see all their individual lineups with fewer minutes

yeah if you go to advanced team stats on nba.com and then click on the team it will bring you to their team page and from there the drop downs let you choose line up data and then 2, 3, 4 or 5 man. those numbers i put were just w/ the default per game filter as opposed to per minute

or per possession

the numbers are different when i do it plz send link

being in pristine shape is a skill

Luka Doncic speaks out on his poor defense

“I've been playing basketball for 3 straight years. 4 weeks in between it was free. Sometimes it's really hard for me to play really hard on both ends. But obviously, the defensive end I gotta be way better.”

(h/t @ClutchPointsApp ) pic.twitter.com/TzcN5nPLgQ

— NBACentral (@TheNBACentral) April 4, 2023

my biggest weakness is i work too hard

if anything i just care too much and im not in great shape

pistons employing a really effective tanking strategy of having james wiseman guard jimmy butler 1 on 1 at the end of a close game

Embiid's midrange fadeaway is up there on the list of all time impossible to defend shots

yeah best bet is trying rip him when he goes into it