NBA / 21 / 22 / FG / FT / 3PM / TO / BL / STATS

i disagree, i think we need to reintroduce superstition and vibes based stats, rationalism is dead

in some ways it’s the only stat that truly matters the problem is it’s too hard to separate out one players impact esp in small samples

i mean otherwise known as…. the score

I mean it’s the score that happens when you’re in the game, in theory it should be very useful, in practice it depends a lot on coaching decisions and the quality of your teammates and opponents

for example the nuggets are +0.7 pts/100 possessions this season as a team, which is obviously thoroughly mediocre, but it’s probably worth noting that they’re +15.7 with nikola jokic on the floor and -11.9 with him on the bench

tho obviously part of that is the nuggets bench being somewhat trash, the lineups jokic plays etc. these are the sorts of things they try to account for in the advanced +/- stats like RPM and RAPTOR with varying degrees of success

like if you think about it it’s the ideal stat, the whole point of playing basketball is to score more points than the other team, things like points per game percentages etc are just surrogates. but in reality it’s hard to isolate the true impact on scoring differential

Plus minus over a small sample doesn’t tell much but over a big stretch can tell you a lot about a player

idk its pretty noisy even over a whole season, including the adjusted versions

Zubac tonight:

31 PTS
29 RBS
3 BLK
14/17 FG

He and Kareem alone as the only two in history to put up that line. Zu has been an absolute monster on both ends this season pic.twitter.com/fWy8Y6KcC9

— NBA University (@NBA_University) November 27, 2022

croatians winning everywhere

quarter through the season and there are six guys averaging 30+, seems like a lot

i’m still stuck on zubac putting up 31-29

He’s doing some cp type stuff

Tyrese Haliburton’s last 3 games: 60 points, 40 assists, NO turnovers

— Charlie Cummings (@klaytheist11) November 29, 2022

Damn

yep except cp3 (or anyone else) has never done that

zu my guy

jokic’s shooting stats this season are just absurd. up to .685 on twos

being very generous with lower bounds here or else the lists would just be jokic

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=players+with+25%25+usage+and+65%25+true+shooting+in+a+season+with+500+minutes+played

booker 51-4-6-1 in 31 minutes

20/25 fg 6/7 3s

Pj Washington 0/13 fg

Brow 55-17-3 blocks (22/30 fg, 2/3 3p, 9/9 ft)
nice little piece of work

i should add, that's 99 pts over the past 2 games, both wins. they're 8-2 in last 10.

i am happy that AD can still ball but i need my lakers schadenfreude fix, it's been like multiple weeks

Yah this sucks

dude that nuts salute to brow i always believed in him

jose alvarado 38pts in 27mins off the bench

how can u not root for the guy, love that sneaky lil bastard

hes awesome

jose alvarado 38pts in 27mins off the bench

Also included a look at how we typically see traveling calls decrease after the first 20 games per team of the season, often dramatically so when it's a point of emphasis: https://t.co/u8AaJ0xcv1 (ESPN+) pic.twitter.com/VdOKqemXXf

— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) December 5, 2022

nba reffing is broken

there is something fucked up about it for sure

the fact that

- they have points of emphasis to start every season and then like 1/4 of the way through just scrap them

- there's such thing as a "superstar whistle" and "home whistle" and its not refuted

- the reffing is completely different for the playoffs vs the reg season

makes the whole thing a scam.

imo star calls are the root of most ref problems. it introduces all this subjectivity - who is a star? how much leeway do they get? and then if refs feel they should be compensating based on the star factor, that compensation carries over to other parts of the current ref meta like lead management and makeup calls.

calling an nba game is already incredibly difficult and expecting refs to figure out all this other stuff on the fly is a recipe for shit. the league seems happy with the status quo tho

otm

The Warriors (18.7) are averaging 7.9 fewer free throw attempts per game than their opponents (26.6) this season, the highest differential in the NBA. It would be a franchise record

— Dalton Johnson (@DaltonJ_Johnson) December 5, 2022

Leading Scorers By Zone. What Jumps Out? pic.twitter.com/NKWNRzCeRT

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) December 6, 2022

always love when we get the zonez

The Efficiency Landscape. What Jumps Out? pic.twitter.com/8pd6MM0C0F

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) December 9, 2022

Heat/Pacers/Hawks/Bulls/Raps/Sixers all chillin with competent D and bad O = lots of less than exciting games in the east

cavs too

Re: plus/minus as a stat a writer/podcaster i like a lot, Britt Robson, was talking about how he likes to clean up and recalculate the stat based on watching the game to eliminate free throw substitution points, like a player get subbed in and then the guy hits free throws that had nothing to do with the guy who just got subbed in

i feel it’s on the same level or worse than Wins for pitchers, it depends on so much outside that player’s control. Pritchard and Kornet get heavy minuses just because they get thrown into garbage time with the end of the bench when the game is over and nobody’s trying

well you can always go to adjusted plus minus (also bad) or real plus minus (still bad)

no matter which catch all stat you look at whether its plus minus based or not theres always one role player who only dunks in there, stats are powerless against the famous dunk shot

had no idea his shooting was that bad this season

Trae Young has only made 28.9% of his 3s this season, compared to 38.2% last year. 

And the 166-shot sample is getting large enough that it’s hard to write off as variance, @johnhollinger writes.

A closer look at the struggles of the Hawks’ star: https://t.co/OBqTM12OUF pic.twitter.com/70FQu0GkZX

— The Athletic NBA (@TheAthleticNBA) December 9, 2022

add that to being arguably the worst defensive player in the league, not good

But how many nutmegs per 36

idk if he shoots just a few more from the logo they might go in

Gets fouls called on the highest % of drives among qualifying players:

1. Giannis: 19.5%
2. Banchero: 16.2%
3. J. Grant: 14.6%
4. LaVine: 14.1%
5. Mathurin: 13.3%
6. Zion: 12.9%
7. Wall: 12.7%
8. Siakam: 12.2%
9. DeRozan: 12.0%
10. J. Brown: 11.9%

What stands out?

— NBA University (@NBA_University) December 4, 2022

banchero and mathurin both so good right away, crazy