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Fred VanVleet
For decades NBA fans have been able to quickly find out which players lead the league in turnovers. This season, that honor belongs to Russell Westbrook, who has coughed up the ball 240 times.
But aside from steals, the NBA hasn't always tracked turnovers from the individual defensive side of things. Now it does.
The NBA stats department has begun keeping track of forced turnovers, which helps flag the defenders who cause the blunders that ruin possessions. This metric encompasses a lot more than just the traditional steals, which are convenient to tally but often don't paint the whole picture. Consider the example of VanVleet, whose defensive performances would go unappreciated without these newer and more comprehensive metrics.
According to the NBA's internal models, VanVleet is forcing a league-leading 3.0 turnovers per game this season, significantly higher than his 1.6 steals-per-game average. In fact, VanVleet is on pace to lead the league in forced turnovers for the third straight season.
For decades, we have leaned on steals as the best way to approximate this effect, but VanVleet's numbers this season show why that can be misleading. According to NBA estimates, of his 173 forced turnovers this season, only 34 were credited as a VanVleet steal -- 75 were credited as a steal by a different Raptor, and 64 were non-steal turnovers (out of bounds, violations, offensive fouls, etc.).
At 6-foot-1, VanVleet spends 30% of his time guarding the opposing ball handler, eighth most in the NBA. Despite his relatively slight size, he has an uncanny ability to blow up plays at the point of attack. He ranks second in the league in passes deflected at 3.9 per game, and a bunch of those tipped passes end up in the hands of a Raptors teammate who then gets credit for the steal.
VanVleet's unique ability to cause screwups helps explain why Toronto ranks first in the league in opponent turnover percentage, and second in the league in points scored off turnovers (19.2 points per 100 possessions).
It's been three years since VanVleet's defense on Stephen Curry in the 2019 NBA Finals helped the Raptors win their first title, and he has only gotten better since. Pound-for-pound it's hard to find a more impactful defender in the NBA than VanVleet, but he has yet to make an All-Defensive team. That could change this year.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/33584857/the-new-advanced-metrics-show-on-nba-all-defense-teams-2021-22
― symsymsym, Friday, 25 March 2022 15:41 (four years ago)