2017 NBA OFFSEASON

being better than the guys picked after him

thats a bit unfair because player development is a thing. i'd like to see average career WS and 3-year peak WS by draft position

Ehh, I would argue that driving to kick rather than is a good strategy in college, considering the shorter 3PT line

He def does need to work on his finishing though, that's one of the reasons I think Fox is gonna be better than him in the long run

i think if youre not getting a star at #2 youve prob swung and miss, tho obvs some drafts just dont have the talent, the problem with a lot of those draft value charts is they have the misses baked in, like so many stats theyre conceptually flawed

i trust the big baller brand to deliver in the 21st century

they should have the misses baked in - the point is not to show you what a hit is, just what has happened historically

you can look at the distribution rather than just the average if you want to come up with a line for 'hit'

no i dont think so

thats a bit unfair because player development is a thing. i'd like to see average career WS and 3-year peak WS by draft position

― ciderpress, Sunday, June 25, 2017 2:25 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

there was actually a recent espn article that had bar graphs of all the picks by career WS

those charts are designed to give a value to each spot, if youre a better than average gm using one then u wld be undervaluing high picks

certainly every stats guy who has one writes abt them as if theyre predictive rather than just a stroll down memory lane

yeah just in general ive noticed sports stats ppl like to act as if everything is predictive

just $0.02 worth, but it seems obvious that with the current prevalence of one-and-dones, predicting a draft pick's career arc has become much harder than when the NBA drafted college seniors pretty much exclusively. this basic fact has devalued a team's position in the draft order and made it even more difficult for badly run teams to improve.

this feels true, but i'd like to see if there's any stats evidence to back it up

player development a lot more important imo

the spurs don't just happen to always hit on the draft

yeah thats important too. its not like a struck of luck "how do they find these guys?" they know how to evaluate talent and fit and work really hard to develop skills.

and the players they pick are usually guys who know theres going to be a lot of work to get their games up to nba standards.

that seems like the most difficult part figuring out if a 19 y/o will work insanely hard

yeah, some of that is personal, but a lot of it is the culture of the team. i'll use dejounte murray as an example. when he got drafted, he talked a lot about wanting to work on his game. it helps when the best player on your new team is an award-winning multiple all-star and a total gym rat.

so i totally expect him to be a quality starter even though he was drafted 29th bc thats just what happens with spurs PG draftees (tony parker, george hill, cory joseph, beno udrih)

spurs also never draft in the lottery so they get to focus on finding their guy rather than evaluating all the top talents

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19657372/the-best-picks-every-nba-draft-slot

League sources: Cavs, Pacers and Nuggets have discussed a three-way deal that would land Paul George in Cleveland and Kevin Love in Denver

— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) June 25, 2017

kevin love and jokic could form the best offense outside of GSW but defensively it would be an adventure

that is....odd for denver

my issue with the love deal is it doesn't address either of the nuggets biggest problems: defense or point guard

that's not to say i wouldn't love watching love play every day. i'm still a believer

i believe in a th- *taken out by The Basketball Sniper*

i dont think the nuggs shd give up young players for kevin love

same

young teams that have an ahead of schedule good season and decide to accelerate the process usually doesnt work out great eg phoenix suns

i mean if u cn get him for super cheap fine but seems unlikely, also yeah that frontcourt wld be so flammable

love is underrated imo and gets a lot of shit thrown his away, sometimes deservedly i admit, but i think it would be cool to see paul george play w/ lebron and kyrie

the trade wld def be good for the cavs lol

nuggs should try to make the playoffs before they get too rowdy with trades. current roster should be able to do it, they were one game out this year despite taking half the season to figure out their rotation

they do need a point guard though

zach lowe touched on this briefly in his butler/wolves write up but teams that have a bunch of good young players have to decide which ones they want to trade bcuz you can't usually re-sign all of them under the cap

i.e. the nuggets already know they have to max our jokic and probably will have to w/ murray at some point as well, maybe they don't want to give gary harris a huge second contract as well idk

but they'd only get love for two more seasons which really means there'd be tons of pressure for them to win this season so as to not have to deal w/ whether to trade him this time next season so it doesn't really make sense to give up much

would be sad to lose the harris/jokic telepathic link

i'm thinking based on their owner nuggs mgmt is feeling a lot of pressure to make the playoffs this year

yeah everyone talks about how they've been trying to make a play for any established star the last few years

i guess they see themselves as a 7-8 seed contender this year if they stay pat could jump into the 4-5-6 range if they acquired that "star" & tho i don't think it's the best move for them it isn't out of the question

i think rubio would be good on the nuggets if he's still available

long term stability to do things right is such an advantage in the nba

i forgot that kyle lowry is a FA

31 y/o fwiw

i think rubio would be good on the nuggets if he's still available

― ciderpress, Monday, June 26, 2017 12:07 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

im fixated on this happening now

an alridge/millsap sign and trade would be a pretty good deal for the hawks and spurs.

my understanding is that sign and trades cant rly happen anymore right?