waiting for the other shoelace to drop: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 2)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10747126/nba-types-players-do-real-plus-minus-like

can someone post this?

A few of RPM's favorite things
Stretch 4s and thieves among the categories that are real plus-minus values
Updated: April 8, 2014, 3:09 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

Everybody has a type, and ESPN's new real plus-minus is no exception.
The beauty of RPM is that its assessment of players isn't made on assumptions about value, as with most popular box score metrics such as PER, WARP and Win Shares. Instead, RPM goes by what happened when the player is on the court or on the bench, adjusted for teammates and opponents. So it starts as an unbiased measure of player value.
More on ESPN.com

• New stats: Real plus-minus leaders
• Ilardi: Introducing real plus-minus
• Pelton: Meet the RPM All-Stars 
• Pelton: RPM's favorite players 
At the same time, RPM results do reveal certain trends, including types of players that rate well, or poorly, due to common characteristics.
Taking a look at those groups can help us understand what really matters in terms of winning and losing in the NBA.
In the spirit of the popular dating apps, in which users anonymously rate potential mates by either swiping right (to indicate interest) or swiping left (to pass), let's take a look at what RPM would say when various types of players pop up on the screen.

Swiping right

• Nonscoring big men
Examples: Nick Collison (+5.8), Amir Johnson (+4.8), Taj Gibson (+4.1)
Collison and Johnson were both members of my RPM All-Star team, but they're not alone among big men with pedestrian scoring averages -- or worse -- who come out well by RPM's measurement. Gibson also is in the top 20, as is Anderson Varejao (+4.1).
The obvious common factor here is defense. Box score stats have a tough time crediting these players for their contributions since they're not elite shot-blockers. But another factor is the ability to set good screens. Gibson and Johnson both appeared on Amin Elhassan's list of the NBA's best screeners. Freeing teammates with picks is a skill that's completely invisible in the box score, but it's one that RPM is capable of picking up.
• Floor-spacing big men
Examples: Ryan Anderson (+1.9), Matt Bonner (+2.8), Channing Frye (+4.1)


Like Anderson, Channing Frye rates well in RPM because of his floor-spacing abilities.
Defense isn't the reason stretch 4s make RPM numbers jump. Instead, these players generally rate well offensively. Anderson and Frye both rank in the NBA's top 20 in offensive RPM, with Bonner in the top 30. (Steve Novak of the Toronto Raptors, a more limited member of this group, also rates solidly above average on offense.) That's partially due to their efficient scoring, especially in the case of the more prolific Anderson.
However, RPM also credits stretch big men for the way their shooting opens up the floor for teammates. RPM co-creator Jeremias Engelmann recently posted adjusted shooting ratings that measure the impact players have had on their teammates' true shooting percentage. Frye is the lone big man near the top of those rankings who isn't an All-Star, while Bonner also rates as having a notably positive influence.
• Players with high steal rates
Examples: Monta Ellis (+1.9), Ricky Rubio (+3.9), Josh Smith (+2.0)
Larceny isn't typically a desirable characteristic in a mate, but RPM seeks it out. Rubio is an RPM All-Star, while Ellis and Smith both rate better than their reputations would suggest. But this trend is bigger than just types. Of basic skill statistics (not including stats that rate combinations of skills such as true shooting percentage), only 2-point percentage correlates more closely with RPM than steal rate.
That backs up recent research by FiveThirtyEight.com's Benjamin Morris, who found that steals are more valuable to teams than any other counting stat in the box score. It's unclear whether this is because steals are so inherently valuable or because they serve to indicate other skills -- steals actually correlate better with offensive RPM than defense -- but either way, one of RPM's first chat questions will always be, "Do you like to steal?"

Swiping left

• Score-first point guards
Examples: D.J. Augustin (-4.7), Aaron Brooks (-4.0), Brandon Jennings (-4.4)


Mine. Ball all mine. RPM does not like ballhog PGs like Brandon Jennings.
There's one other skill statistic that correlates as well with RPM as steals, and that's assists, which is the strongest single factor in offensive RPM. That's bad news for point guards who tend to rack up relatively few of them.
The other common factor among Augustin, Brooks and Jennings is that they're poor, undersized defenders. While some point guards, such as Ramon Sessions (-1.4), can compensate at the other end, this group's offensive ratings are much worse than the average point guard. RPM simply isn't impressed by their volume scoring, which generally doesn't translate to wins.
• Rookies
If you thought I was harsh on this season's rookie class last week, stay away from RPM's ratings. Of RPM's bottom 11 players who have seen at least 500 minutes of action, four are rookies:Anthony Bennett (-5.3), Ben McLemore (-5.4), Tony Snell (-5.5) and Archie Goodwin (-5.9). That's the same number of rookies that RPM rates as above-average contributors: Ryan Kelly(+2.3), Trey Burke (+1.4), Matthew Dellavedova (+1.3) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+0.4).
Though those ratings are partially a comment on this season's rookie class, in general young players tend to rate worse by RPM than their box score stats because of their difficulty in getting up to speed on defense. As a result, RPM tends to prefer older players.
• Philadelphia 76ers
RPM probably isn't going to find romance in the City of Brotherly Love. At its heart, RPM is divvying up credit for team performance among the players on the court. Alas, there hasn't been much credit to go around in Philadelphia this season. Therefore, it's only natural that the two worst players in RPM wins above replacement (factoring in minutes played and replacement level) are Sixers guards Tony Wroten (-4.9 WAR) and Elliot Williams (-4.2).
Byron Mullens (-1.4) and Hollis Thompson (-1.3) are also near the bottom of the league, whileMichael Carter-Williams (-1.0) rates much worse than he does by box score stats. Ultimately, RPM rates just one Sixers player as better than average: lone veteran holdover Thaddeus Young(+6.8 WAR).

tinder jokes :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcea5aSoKgo#t=296

very very important update

(at about 4:55 if timecode embedding doesn't work on ilx)

lmao

luv manimal http://grantland.com/the-triangle/kenneth-faried-manimal-evolution-denver-nuggets

Dikimbe laughing at the end is absolutely confirmation that some variant of "who wants to sex Mutombo" is totally true also he is all-time hilarious and Adam silver needs to undo the bans on the finger wag and the cassell big ballz dance ASAP

otm

having seen bledsoe play live now all I can really say is dude's game is singular.

― Clay, Monday, April 7, 2014 2:59 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I tol u glad u enjoyed the Bledsoe, he really is one of those guys it's hard to get the full impact of without seeing him live

rule if u do the big ball dance but then someone finger wags u yr swag from the dance is counteracted

there needs to be a third one like in rock paper scissors

Kobe jaw-jut is the third but it loses to both because it is contrived and weird and lame just like its inventor

lolol that was my thought for the third too

hi5 everyone

Lol ilh hivemind

It will be a shame if Brooklyn has to play Chicago in the first round because fun-hater thibs will make sure his team wins thus depriving us of at least one last excellent pierce-Lebron playoff duel

nets win 2nite and theyre 4-0 v miami this season

shame lopez got injured nets couldve made some noize

Patrick Fenelon ‏@Patrick_Fenelon 3m
Imagine Lebron at age 45. That's what Boris Diaw is.

lol

spurs gettin roughed up by the wolves tonight, but they're resting Parker so it probably doesn't count

im not sweating the rest of the regular season unless they lose all 5 games

meanwhile, in the all-powerful eastern conference:

Rizz ‏@Rizzmigizz -- The Knicks play the Bulls, Nets, and Toronto twice to finish the year. They are done. Their magic number is they are done in the face.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bkvst4YCUAEugEq.jpg

cmon

for the playoffs this year bise should yellow card us with customized nickname jerseys

yooooooo a plumlee just blocked bron at the rim as time expired to save the game

OMG

the last few minutes of that game was p bonkers

great fn play man he cuts off the drive to force the pass to bron and recovers to block his shot that was sick

the plumlees are alright man not bad

the finish against bosh was more impressive considering his skill set

i don't thin LeBron even saw plumlee or else he would've done that little fingeroll off the glass thing he always does

no way blocking bon at the rim to save the game is prob the coolest thing anyone can do in the nba xp

Coach K's ability to maximize Plumlee people is not looking so good

spurs gettin roughed up by the wolves tonight, but they're resting Parker so it probably doesn't count

― Clay, Wednesday, April 9, 2014 1:55 AM (45 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Minny does well against the spurs it seems?

nets/raptors ecf calling it now

haha plumlee and lebron held hands for a second

lebron post-game hissyfit nagl

lol studio crew bending over backwards to give brons whining a fair hearing and cant even bring themselves to care

lol shaq "this plumlee brother and the other plumlee brother..."

Just caught up but plumlees are p good I think the nets one would be better if he could grow the suns ones beard but he made some nba bones with that bron block

I was also totally a foul but I'm glad they didn't call it

omg not a foul he got the ball first

Last couple of minutes were totally rad and I'm seriously already mad at Joakim Noah for putting up a 23-17-14-4 in the future game seven to eliminate Brooklyn, that jerk

Heh I've only seen the one replay still a lil behind

I'm seriously already mad at Joakim Noah for putting up a 23-17-14-4 in the future game seven to eliminate Brooklyn, that jerk

― z-time champion (agent hibachi), Tuesday, April 8, 2014

this year iz different. nets gonna winz.

Oh shit NOT a foul but totally a routine superstar call most of the time, good on the he refs for letting that go, gotta dunk thru a plums if u wanna win bron

bron def disrespected a plumlees going up like he wasnt even there

he was like pfft a plumlee watch this o shit

phoenix plumlee is really scary looking irl, dude has a v intimidating vibe like maybe he is secretly an executioner

they shd nickname him "the executioner"

executioner plumlee